The Indo/MW poll, Dublin and Dungiven


Two different but linked articles popped up on my computer today. They both convey factual information with considerable implications. 

The first is in the Irish Independent , written by Fionann Sheahan and is headed “66 per cent believe capital is ‘racing ahead’ in recovery”. it has several pie-charts at the top, indicating the returns of an Irish Independent/Millward Brown poll. The article comments on the the different percentages  of those who believe there is a twin-track economic recovery in different parts of the state. While rural towns continue to struggle with empty shops and financial pressure, house prices in Dublin are going up some €5,000 a month.

Pretty striking, eh? But if you look at the pie-charts again  you’ll see there is one which that little rascal Fionnan hasn’t referred to at all. It poses the question: ‘If a General Election were to be held tomorrow, to which party or independent candidate would you give your first preference vote?’ The results are: Independents/Other: 27%; Labour 5%; Greens: 2%; Fine Gael: 20%; Fianna Fail: 20%; Sinn Féin : 26%.

Now I wouldn’t for a moment say that the two-track recovery (if it’s happening, and if it isn’t multi-track rather than two-track) isn’t important. People need a house, a job, bread on the table, equality. So it’s important that figures such as this poll offers are looked at and commented on. What is significant/verging on hilarious is that Sinn Féin is the most popular party in the state by a full 6% and that finding is ignored by Fionnan. Yes, yes, Virginia, the only poll that really counts is the one on election day. But since the Indo/Millward Brown thought the information worth gathering, you’d assume they thought it worth commenting on in an article like this. Why wasn’t it? Um, pass.

The second article is from The Mid-Ulster Mail  and is headed ‘Sinn Fein urge Orange Order to enter talks over Dungiven parade’. It reports that the Sinn Féin councillor Sean McGlinchey has appealed to the Orange order to enter into dialogue regarding a planned Orange Order march through the 99% nationalist village. Apparently in recent years locals have facilitated a limited march through the village; this year it looks as though the Orange Order plans enlarged numbers without local consultation.

Both these articles take the breath away. The Indo/MB  poll showing Sinn Féin by far the most popular party in the south could be seen as predictable after their showing in the local and European elections; but keep in mind that a couple of decades ago Sinn Féin were showing support in the south by around 2% of the population. That the party should be, if we go by this poll, the most popular party in the south and at the same time the most popular nationalist party in the North tells anyone who is prepared to look that major changes in the political life of this island are growing by the week.  Unionist parties in the North would serve their constituents best by facing up to these figures and coming to an accommodation with their nationalist neighbours north and south, don’t you think?

But judging by  The Mid-Ulster Mail, that’s not going to happen anytime soon. What possible interpretation could be put on the plans of the Orange Order to march through 99% nationalist Dungiven, with or without local agreement? I’m sure you have your own answer to that. Mine is perhaps caught best by two terms: coat-trailing and ostrich-action. I’d suggest the Orange Order needs to get out more.  But then they do that already, don’t they?

Here are the links (I hope) to the two articles:

16 Responses to The Indo/MW poll, Dublin and Dungiven

  1. RJC June 7, 2014 at 11:49 am #

    ‘Plus ça change, plus c’est la même chose’ is all I really have to say about the Orange Order. A little nod to our resident Francophile there.

    Intransigence will be the death of Unionism/Orangeism. If they are too pig headed to see this, then I’m afraid they do not deserve our sympathy when the day comes. “The green reed which bends in the wind is stronger than the mighty oak which breaks in a storm.”

    I’m feeling quite philosophical this morning. Must have been all that beer I had last night.

    • paddykool June 7, 2014 at 12:41 pm #

      RJC ; That’ll do it every time. How’s the head, old bean?

  2. Paul June 7, 2014 at 12:45 pm #

    Thought the same last Saturday when I read the Irish times weekend edition. I was expecting some analysis/opinion on sinn fein success in euru/council elections. Some mention of how well independents were doing but Nada on sf. Perhaps this is new tactic if we don’t talk about them maybe they will go away.

  3. paddykool June 7, 2014 at 12:51 pm #

    Jude :
    So what you ‘re implying is that the ostriches have all broken loose and are running about on both sides of the border …all looking for sandpits to bury their heads in ? You can usually find plenty of those play pits at elementary schools. Bring out the men with large nets and start gathering ’em up.

    We’ll be well into the 21st century before any of these guys catch on or catch up.

  4. Iolar June 7, 2014 at 12:59 pm #

    Mervyn Gibson was interviewed on, “The View” (5 June 2014). He compared the toleration of a march in Derry on 31 May 2014 to the intolerance to a proposed parade in Belfast on 7 June 2014. The route in Derry is through commercial property. It was a relief that the banned men did not need to answer the call of nature as they passed a Presbyterian church and a Methodist church. Clearly there is no fun in a parade when you do not have the opportunity to taunt residents. I suspect we will have further clerical errors this year.

  5. wolfe tone June 7, 2014 at 1:54 pm #

    I sincerely hope in this new era of cairduil relations with Ireland and britain/royals etc that the proposed visit by Elizabeth battenburg to the north next month, there will be an opportunity for herself to finally tell her followers to knock their bigoted marches on the head?
    If we are lead to believe she is a nice oul bird, then she should be eager to show good leadership by finally condemning those people who swear by her, if they are causing pain, anguish or terror to their neighbours? Of the numerous queen speeches over the years i cant recall her ever mentioning this elephant in the room. If she really wants friendship to develop between the two countries then surely it would be logical to have a word with her subjects?After all these people pledge allegiance to her.

  6. neill June 7, 2014 at 2:27 pm #

    Ah I love this brave new world SF will run the south and Orange men should only march in Unionist areas.

    This might will be a portent of an “agreed Ireland”

    As for Sean McGlinchey he surely is the model of common decencey after all was never secterian at all was he?

    • Am Ghobsmacht June 7, 2014 at 2:39 pm #


      SF will not rule the south.


      Because they are a nationalist party.

      Nationalism by default rejects pragmatism, ergo IF they ride to power on the tide of populism and protestism (which I hope they do) they will either make a hash of it and die or change their tune.

      As for the OO only marching in unionist areas, well, they can in theory march where ever they want if they don’t offend the residents of said area.

      Unfortunately they do offend people and furthermore if they don’t offend the residents then they’re not loyal enough.

      I have no sympathy for weakness.

      Evolve or die.

      They’re not evolving quickly enough.

      Ergo, they’re chiselling their own tombstone.

      Such is life.

  7. Am Ghobsmacht June 7, 2014 at 2:28 pm #

    “Of the numerous queen speeches over the years i cant recall her ever mentioning this elephant in the room”

    If I recall correctly, during Drumcree 96 (or 97) she strongly hinted that the Orangemen should wise the bap.

    Their ‘loyal’ response?

    Paisley (effectively, not verbatim) told her to wind her neck in.

    How loyal…

  8. Am Ghobsmacht June 7, 2014 at 2:33 pm #

    Please remember this:

    Catholics are Lundys

    Middle class non-tribalistic Protestants are Lundys

    Orangemen who speak out against violence (e.g.Rev William Bingham) are Lundys

    Nationalists are Lundys

    The PSNI are Lundies

    I’m a Lundy

    The Parades Commision are Lundys

    Polish immigrants are (potential) Lundys

    David Trimble was a Lundy

    NI21 are Lundys

    The BBC are Lundys

    The Queen, is a Lundy….

    (Ironically the only person who may not have been a Lundy was Lundy himself as he was at least (perhaps) loyal to his king, James II…)

    • paddykool June 7, 2014 at 2:48 pm #

      Am Ghob : So what you’re saying is that they are in a whole new class of their own…. right up their own snoot……”We Ourselves”… I’m sure i heard that somewhere ……

  9. neill June 7, 2014 at 3:11 pm #

    I have no sympathy for weakness.

    Evolve or die.

    Somewhat ironically we are celebrating D Day landings which helped put an end to a regime which had similar outlooks as the ones above.

    Catholics are Lundys

    Middle class non-tribalistic Protestants are Lundys

    Orangemen who speak out against violence (e.g.Rev William Bingham) are Lundys

    Nationalists are Lundys

    The PSNI are Lundies

    I’m a Lundy

    The Parades Commision are Lundys

    Polish immigrants are (potential) Lundys

    David Trimble was a Lundy

    NI21 are Lundys

    The BBC are Lundys

    The Queen, is a Lundy….

    You clearly have a bee in the bonnet about the orange order perhaps you should talk about it on your blog……

    Of course SF are pragmatic look at the things they said they would never do not coughing up a weapon not going into stormont they want power they will ditch many more principles to get into power in the south

  10. Am Ghobsmacht June 8, 2014 at 12:46 am #


    A bee in my bonnet about the OO?


    I find them frustrating and out dated (as a whole, though some lodges are quite innovative).


    They want to remain part of the union – Do actions such as marching through areas where they are not welcome aid with this aim or do their actions antagonise people and possibly polarise people who might otherwise be neutral/status quo supporting?

    If they find they are polarising people then they are hurting their own cause.

    Same goes for the other things that the OO fails to address, such as the marching culture that has grown up in tandem with the OO, the irresponsibility of some bands, the sickening merchandise that can (or could, perhaps they’ve clamped down on this) be purchased at stalls.

    Not to mention beating the tribal drum for events like Drumcree or Twaddell.

    If they want to be a Christian family orientated organisation and melt into the background (like the AOH) that looks forward to the big day, then great.

    That would be spiffing.

    But at present the 12th is a day of dread for many people in NI (and indeed Glasgow the week before).

    Whataboutery merchants would point the finger at SF and people who ‘go out of their way’ to be offended.

    But really, do people from the nationalist community really care if Orangemen and their families congregate at ‘the field’ to drink tea, sing hymns and see people they don’t often see?

    I doubt it (nationalists, please feel free to correct me if I’m wrong).

    But, can trouble occur when the feelings of those whose lives are directly affected by the marching route are not given any consideration?

    Well yes. Naturally.

    Imagine having to say to oneself “I had better not put on the top of my local GAA club today as it exponentially increases my chances of being beaten to death, where’s my MU top instead….”

    How difficult would it be for the OO to issue decrees/pleas that chapels (and maybe mosques now too, I think the muslim community in NI will now start to view Protestants as ‘hostile’ to them thanks to pastorgate) should be designated ‘quiet zones’?

    Perhaps even a crack down on public drinking, i.e. pay for more PSNI officers and allow them to carry out their duty unimpeded?

    There are many things the OO can do.

    And they would potentially stand to gain from these ‘surrenders’.

    As would NI’s likelihood of remaining in the union.

    • MPG ..... June 8, 2014 at 10:58 am #

      Am Ghobsmacht for President!

  11. madadh mór June 8, 2014 at 1:16 pm #

    I’m hoping, Jude, that you will pick up speed this week and comment on the RTE programme about the in depth torture of UK citizens in 1971. The pro-status quo slugger seems to have missed it although SF , Adams, paedophilia, OTRS gathered up on 500 posts.

    • Jude Collins June 8, 2014 at 2:19 pm #

      M M – I have already done so a few blogs back. Have a look…