In one of Jude’s recent blogs there was some crowing that a United Ireland was a surefire inevitability.
Well , is it? There is some evidence that nominal Nationalists in Northern Ireland will eventually outnumber nominal Unionists.”North Munsterman” posited that within fifteen years, with Nationalists in the ascendance , unionists will comprise some forty percent of those voting.The implication is that with Nationalists having a sixty percent majority , a United Ireland is a shoo-in. Unionism will gradually decrease in influence and will only have a ten per cent hold on the entire political pie.
We know , of course , that barely half the population votes at any given time so the figures may not tell the whole story. We know too that it is only those very interested citizens who care enough to get out and vote anyway. Many do not.
The thing I find that is never considered in the great new vision, is that in this magical re-united Ireland we’ll be carrying the same old problems of racism, bigotry, neo- fascism, gangsterism and all the rest of that intransigent cussedness with us . There’ll be no magic fix.
Cultural unionism has very little influence in Westminster but will have a large bloc in a future Irish government , possibly carrying all that same bile into this sparkly New Ireland. They’ll still want to walk Traditional Routes. They’ll still want to push a Creationist agenda and all those other old shibboleths.
All of this while the now Republic is finally shucking off the chains of Church- inspired conservatism ,censorship and all that . The things that divide us in Northern ireland have never been properly addressed and are constantly fudged or pushed back .Government is not solving these problems.
Given that our southern neighbours will have to agree to this wholly new conservative input from the North , will they ever vote for that ? Will they vote down a re-united Ireland and leave well enough alone?