So, the “lights are finally out” for Alasdair McDonnell as the SDLP leader, he has now left the stage – the first ever sitting party leader to be defeated by the party. On The View, Thursday evening, a sense of arrogance was exposed by McDonnell, as he exclaimed that “Colum’s people might not be as good at counting votes as I am.” I thought, he’s confident. But he seemingly got his sums wrong: the first occasion he was unable to count the votes right, was the most costly! One thing was clear, McDonnell was struggling and as a result the SDLP have been withering away – he knew this, but what was he doing? I’ve predicted before that the SDLP find themselves in terminal decline and I believe a new leader will find great difficulty reversing this.
In his farewell speech, McDonnell said he had “given his all and then a little bit more” to the leadership of the party. He thanked his family who “soldiered with him” and received a long standing ovation as he finished: “I’m gone, though not far away, it’s over to others to keep going”. “Far away” would probably be the best place for McDonnell to go.
It’s now over to Colum Eastwood, the 32 year old MLA, who will lead the party into the next Assembly elections. Those same elections that an SDLP internal document reckons could see the party lose another 5 MLAs. In his maiden address as Party leader, Eastwood paid tribute to McDonnell, and stated, “Our principal conversation will be shaping this region and this country for the next 20, 30 and more years.”
Sounds good, the region needs change, but will the SDLP be about in the next “20, 30 and more years” to see this change through? Eastwood finished his address, saying “It’s time to win again.” Win again? Is this possible? After major losses, the priory for the SDLP is to keep what they have, to survive first!
In consecutive elections, their vote has declined and sitting somewhere around 13.9% in the 2015 general election. Ok, they retained their 3 MPs, but lost 11,000 voters. Next time around, will they manage this? Since their peak vote in 1997, the SDLP have lost the guts of 90,000 voters! Can they be recouped? That’s a startling statistic. As mentioned, by May 2016, the SDLP could have 9 MLA’s in the Assembly. Since the late 1990’s, the SDLP vote has continually declined – McDonnell admitted “results had bottomed out” and was “working to turn the SDLP around.” He turned them around so many times, they are now dizzy! I can’t see how a change in leadership can reverse this trend. A change in leadership doesn’t mean a change in voter mindset – this is the challenge!
Despite some young blood in the party and a new young leader, the SDLP seem to be ageing more than any other party in Northern Ireland politics. A few of thrift out of touch middle class, middle aged, middle of the road politicians need to call it a day. A few questions to consider:
- Can Colum Eastwood reunite the party? He says he can and is determined to do so. 44% of party voters, voted for McDonnell in the leadership contest – can they be easily won over? How does Colum propose to win them over?
- Does Colum have able party members to help change the party? Fearghal McKinney, the unelected MLA, is now deputy leader, a McDonnell ally – McKinney isn’t exactly the person you want helping you reinvent and reignite the party! He’s exactly what the SDLP don’t need in a senior position.
- Will Colum opt to keep the SDLP in the Executive or look to them being a formal opposition party? Or will they merge with Fianna Fáil?
- What can Colum do differently to make the SDLP an appealing party? People need a reason to vote for the SDLP – What will the reasons be? What will be the game changer?
- As Sinn Fein aim in the next Assembly election to become the largest party in a Northern Ireland, can Colum Eastwood and the SDLP seriously challenge and take the fight to Sinn Fein, offering a viable nationalist alternative?
- On morality issues, can the SDLP under Colum Eastwood, move to bring back those Catholic voters? This will be difficult, particularly as Colum is an advocate of same sex marriage. What about those disengaged middle class voters?
- With an increase in Nationalist voter apathy, can Colum Eastwood and the SDLP bring Nationalist voters back onto the streets to vote for the party?
- Can Colum Eastwood reverse the downward decline of the SDLP? As mentioned above, consecutive elections provide the evidence – a number of leadership changes in the past – Mark Durkan, Margaret Richie and Alasdair McDonnell weren’t able to reverse this trend – what makes Colum any different? His youth? Is that enough?
My own view is that the SDLP have outlived their usefulness. One things is clear, Colum Eastwood has a massive challenge ahead of him, has the change in leadership of the SDLP, been too little, too late?
Claire Hanna talked last year of the SDLP “message being broken and needing fixed.” Can Colum Eastwood send out a new party message and fix it?
Some excellent questions posed. I think though and agree with you Jude that the SDLP are on their knees. Be interesting to hear an SDLP viewpoint.
You’re not agreeing with me, Mitchel (although you are) – you’re agreeing with Ciaran…
The SDLP has made too many unforgivable mistakes…Fermanagh and South Tyrone will haunt them to their extinction.Their pathetic subservience during the Hunger Strike is indelibly etched in peoples memory. Only the other day we had Dolores Kelly hinting at closer ties with the UUP…the party that misruled and gerrymandered this place for 50 years….the party that gave us the RUC,the B-Specials and internment…..has she lost the plot ? They’re career politicians living in their ivory towers remote from the people ,clueless and uncaring.I’m not sure that Fianna Fail would risk a merger…it could sink both ships…..no , I believe they’re in terminal decline and I will not mourn their passing.
The SDLP will be a lot younger at the next election, so I don’t get the aging comments. The DUP is a much older party Pengelly aside, the UUP too Andy Allen aside, Northern Sinn Féin era of McGuinness-Adams is drawing to an end and Mitchell McLaughlin’s retirement the first high profile retirement bar possibly Bairbre De Brún. Alliance have no big young faces Little and possibly Bradshaw breaking through.
An SDLP with Claire Hanna, Mark H Durkan, Nichola Mallon, Colum Eastwood, Daniel McCrossan are bringing in a lot of new faces just at a time when they need it. They could easily be the youngest party in Stormont even with Ramsey, Rodgers, McGlone and McKinney in the ranks.
Kevin, thank you for your comment – number of points to consider: “Then SDLP will be a lot younger at the next election.” 9 of their current 14 MLA’s are over 55 (4 in their 60’s) – are any of their MLA’s planning to step down? SDLP, themselves, are concerned about the next election – will youth be their answer, to their problems?
Your comment “bringing in a lot of new faces.” Could you perhaps elaborate on that point? Are the SDLP a growing party? What is drawing people to the SDLP? They certainly aren’t drawing people to vote for them. The SDLP’s obvious closet comparison is Sinn Fein. Sinn Fein have a far stronger youth organisation and a good mix of elected representatives. Even the DUP have been working a youth policy into their party. You think the SDLP could end up the “youngest party in Stormont” – well if their prediction of 9 MLA’s is a reality, youth most certainly won’t save their downward trend. Do you think Eastwood will make a difference to the party?
We know that Joe Byrne, Dominic Bradley, John Dallat will be stepping aside, as will Karen McKevitt. The likes of Daniel McCrossan, Malachi Quinn, Justin McNulty, Colin McGrath. etc.
They already have Claire Hanna, Mark H Durkan and Colum Eastwood in there, we may also see new young councillors emerge to replace those who go to the Assembly.
We could see more if Nichola Mallon replaces Alban Magginnis in North Belfast.
The stoops always had a policy of replacing old fogies with young fogies!
They’ve just resorted to becoming a Derry party. I don’t see young Eastwood having A “Sudden Impact” outside that city.
Well his capacity to win over delegates well beyond the cities was telling, It’s not going to be a case of him himself alone, if he can inspire the likes of Attwood and Dolores Kelly to do better. And he has helped draw in some new recruits.
If Colum Eastwood’s inaugural speech is a prelude to their future ,then it doesn’t auger well. In describing the SDLP as ” the most successful political party in the history of this island ” ,I think Colum has stretched credulity to the extreme……..humour is good for the soul but maybe honesty would be better.He also stated ,” We need willing partners in Unionism ” but is he being delusional ….Is he hoping that such a alliance would damage Sinn Féin to the benefit of the SDLP. Unionism is capricious and deceitful and would certainly consider a dalliance if only to put the final nail in their coffin.I think it’s only hope of survival would be to foment a positive and strident United Ireland policy and forget Unionism…..they want nothing to do with us !
Seamus, thank you for your comment. I think the first thing Colum needs to do is reach out to Nationalist voters and give them something to consider, with the view of voting (even considering) SDLP again. I don’t know what that is, and believe this “game changer” will not come. Making ridiculous statements as you allude to above will not enhance his image as party leader, or the party – all talk and no action has the SDLP where they are now. It would be interesting to hear SDLP views in relation to the questions I state. I asked Claire Hanna on twitter for a response last night. After getting over the “why should I chat to you about it on a Sunday night” (paraphrase) its apparently on her “to do” list. Colum saving the SDLP from oblivion is probably on his “to do” list as well! Engaging with voters, like you, me and others on these questions (and reciprocating with actions) are fundamental to the SDLP voice getting out there and being heard. Until now, I, like the majority of voters cant hear!
They have an existentialist problem, what actually do they stand for? Once Stormont was resurrected they had achieved their raison d’etre. They are just an amalgam of competing forces, the socialist, the nationalist and the regionalist. A party of factions and self interests. They are a constant war with themselves, did you see the ingracious behaviour of Delores letting herself down?
They need to decide what they are, Irish or British labour allies, a nationalist/republican party of the left, right or centre, a regional, (partitionist), party of the left, right or centre, and start acting accordingly.
One thing I will say, I believe that Eastwood is a liberal, left looking man. If he goes for a more left wing, socially liberal agenda he will only hasten the decline, Sinn Fein will outdo SDLP on that front.
I do however believe that the SDLP are finished no matter what.
Nationalism needs a centre party, be that FF or another yet to surface, to maximise its vote.
The SDLP is not needed, it is redundant.