Bernie Sanders (a bit like Ken Livingstone) got into bother recently for speaking the truth. When he appeared on Meet the Press, Sanders was asked why he’d lost in 16 out of 17 states where there was a large wealth gap. Shouldn’t his socialist message have given him a a string of victories, not defeats? Sanders had the reason clear: “Because poor people don’t vote. I mean, that’s just a fact”. He was criticized for being a political analyst rather than a political candidate. But was he right.
In the US elections in 2014, almost 70% of people who made under $30, 000 didn’t vote,and 75% of those making under $10,000 didn’t vote. See the pattern? The poorer you are, the less likely you are to make it to the voting booth. That’s bad news, not least because it means politicians will be less likely to work in the interests of people who are unlikely to vote for them.
In Britain it’s a similar pattern. In the 2010 election, 75% of men in the top social class voted, while just 56% of men at the bottom of the social scale turned out. Women were similar: top 73%, bottom 57%.
Again and again, those who have most to benefit from voting are the same people who don’t.
Here in the north, class plays a part in voter loyalty: middle class nationalists mainly vote SDLP, while working-class nationalists tend to vote for Sinn Féin. And here’s a factor that should be good news for nationalists/republicans: the unionist population is getting older and smaller, while the nationalist population is younger and bigger.
But – and it’s an important but – unionists have more than counter-balanced that growing gap by – guess what? – getting out and voting. Just as with poor people, who have most to gain from voting tend to stay at home, nationalists who are in a position of growing strength have begun to sit on their hands on voting day.
Granted, it is not exclusively an Irish problem. Across the Western world there’s been a decline in the numbers voting. Not so long ago there was much talk here of ‘the Prod in the garden centre’ : that significant middle-class portion of the unionist population which felt detached from politics and stayed at home on election day. Now, however, it’s the taig cois tine – the Catholic by his/her fireside’ that is proving the problem. For example, in Fermanagh/South Tyrone, nationalists/republicans could have taken Bobby Sands’s old seat had they turned out – but they didn’t. They knew from experience that a carload of people could be the difference between defeat and victory, but they still couldn’t be bothered.
Along with the poor, young people are less likely to vote than those well-off or elderly. There are different ways we could react to that. We could accept it as one of the uncomfortable facts of life. Or we could look at, say, the recent referendum about gay marriage in the south. There, young people felt strongly about the subject, strongly enough to get them to act contrary to the usual norm and get out there and vote. As a result, they won.
How can we channel this energy and use it to galvanise the nationalist/republican community, particularly the poor and the young, to get out there and vote? One obvious answer – but an answer that will definitely not be used for perhaps decades to come – is to have voting online. If we can trust our money to online, then surely we can trust our voting to online? At the same time, we need to keep in mind the south’s investment in voting machines – millions of euros in machines that simply never got used.
The catch with a-plague-on-all-their-houses is that, if you don’t exercise your franchise and indicate your choice, someone else is going to make the choice for you. Stay at home and let someone else decide your future.
All of the above would appear to be contradicted by the fact that Gerry Carroll topped the poll in West Belfast and Eamonn McCann picked up a seat in Derry – both for People Before Profit. What’s that if not working people saying “Enough, already”, and exercising their vote?
That may be the case. But we’d do well to keep in mind that those who voted for Gerry and Eamonn are a very small proportion of people who either voted otherwise or didn’t vote at all. It’d also be interesting to know if the vote for both men was equally supported by both nationalist and unionist communities. On the face of it, it looks as though People Before Profit has flourished in both cases within nationalist/republican areas.
maybe people are smarter than the politicians think,voting in the farce the other day is legitimising austerity cuts and if your right about poorer people not voting[which i doubt]their hardly going to vote to get poorer,younger people not voting probably comes down to a mix of things age of politicians being one mccann for example be near 80 ffs at the end of this term.
seeing old over fed well heeled men in grey suits cutting their grants,stopping gay marriage,them having an abortion if they want ect ect the younger ones are far wiser these days and arnt going to be dictated to by the do as i say not as i do gang,they know ruling by fooling when they see it.
Commenting on the election results from the six counties, Martin Mansergh shrugged of Irish independence as a priority on RTÉ yesterday as he moved swiftly to comment about the lack of political representation for the Shankill Road. Mr and Ms Dodds may share his views about Irish independence, however, I suspect they would not endorse his views about the Shankill.
Irish independence may not be a priority for Mr Mansergh but well might he reflect on a constitutional fault line that runs from the north of Scotland to the south of Kerry. Independence remains high on the priority list for the Scottish electorate.
In Ireland, orange and green Tories are being confronted with the reality that the issue of independence and the rejection of anti-austerity policies now represent dynamic aspects of the political process throughout the country.
Jude
You say:
“the unionist population is getting older and smaller, while the nationalist population is younger and bigger”
Are you equating protestant to unionist and catholic to nationalist?
Have you any data for the claim that the nationalist (as opposed to catholic)population is younger and bigger.
I am not saying you are wrong I just like to see the figures.
Gio, we already spoke about this on another article.
I’m assuming Jude is simply equating Catholics with Nationalists, which is reasonable to do and has been done for decades by the media, politicians, etc. Yes, I know there’s dangers, potential inaccuracies, etc in doing that but as you said yourself “I’m not saying you are wrong”.
I personally don’t have figures except for 99% of all Catholic majority areas having Nationalist majorities, except for F/ST thanks to the SDLP splitting the vote.
Ryan
Thanks for taking up the baton. I get the sense that Jude is a bit jaded at the moment.
I just don’t think it is wise to continue assuming a direct correlation between catholic and nationalist. PBP picked up 2 seats in largely nationalist areas despite clearly telling people they were neither orange nor green.
Now you might say they are all really nationalists at heart,but that is exactly the kind of complacent thinking I am saying to beware of.
Look at the last census.Look at the recent BBC/RTE poll.Look at the Life and Times survey.They all tell us that the correlation is not perfect. (So where is Jude getting his figures from?)
Dismissing all these indicators as media conspiracy just seems like head in the sand stuff.
What it boils down to is that 50%+1 catholic cannot be assumed to mean 50%+1 in favour of UI.
Maybe it will need 55% catholic or 60% before the tipping point is reached.
I agree the trend is still going in that direction but it will not happen any time soon…..
unless….events dear boy!
And the Green Party took their two seats in North Down and South Belfast. Eamonn McCann thought he had the youngest electorate in Derry. I’d guess that the Greens can boast the same down here. The next generation seem to see even Alliance as a Civil War party. They just don’t get our references Jude.
It is difficult to decide down here in the Free Southern Stateen, Esteemed Blogmeister, whether the drop in the green, as distinct from the orange and the red votes was down to either Complacency or Disillusion.
Certainly if one was to go by the trending twitterings from The Unionist Times on their up the minute, and on the button online coverage of the unravelling drama, it was definitely a toss up between one or tother.
Two excellent Tex Ritters of the TUT twiteratti caught the eye: one who kept the liberal unionist cohort au fait with a running gag, both verbal and visual: the (gulp) Whitening of Gerry Guess Who’s tweet, oops, teeth.
You know, the type of knockabout stuff one encounters from the sociopaths of social media. And which the frowning TUT is normally so down upon. But, hey, just like the recent liberation of the a-word in the same august Armitage Shanks paper of record, what’s a little French f’arse between friends et les etrangers to lighten the mood ? In what was, apres tout, a long and tense day at the official count centres.
(Must have been, TUT’s sharp-eyed correspondent/ chief whip on matters to do with the sociopath media was on a day-off: Una ‘The Mullally’ Cat. Otherwise there could well be Sinn and facial hair flying. As the Seanchai Eamon Kelly used to say: ‘ Coimead do shuil ar an bpussy cat: keep an eye on da pussy cats, tis da wans ya don’t see, dem’s da wans to watch’.).
The other item was actually a trendy, oops ,trending tweety from a chap name of – Mick Fealty, if one recalls the spieling correctly. He was particularly interested in the patent drop in the Nationalist vote. He also contrasted the kid-glove treatment which the same community had been receiving from the media with the way the Unionist cohort was never ‘spared the rod’ by the same media.
Eh ?
Thankfully, we are more enlightened and take the broader view, south of the Black Sow’s Dyke. Perhaps, the time has arrived in Norneverland for the M.O.P.E. to be less indulged? Down here we tend to treat our equivalent, the D.O. P.E differently . (see below).
While one was pondering this point, one momentarily switched over to the broadcasting wing of The Unionist Times just in time to catch this incisive comment from a chap called (gulp) Collins.
-Hah ! The Shinners are paying now for opting to sit on their hands here. As you can tell from their poor results coming in from the North.
RTE (for it was it ! ) then mentioned he was Niall Collins, a Fianna F TD for Limerick. Not so much the Man from Uncle as the Man from Uncles. For not one but (gasp) two of his uncles previously though not simultaneously (seemingly ) served as Fianna Failure TD’s for the same constituency: Limerick Wesht.
L. to R. Gerry Collins and ( gulp). Michael J. Collins.
Of the pair, Uncle Gerry would be perhaps the more celebrated. Indeed, during his endless days as a perennial undergraduate in UCD he became an overnight sensation by overcoming the musical complexities involved in mastering a particular art. That would be the recondite art of playing the tin-whistle by blowing through the left nostril.
All of which irresistibly calls for a Limerick. Perhaps even, to illustrate the difference between the M.O.P.E. and the D.O.P.E. (see above). To be recited to the signature tune of Uncle Gerry’s on the tin whistle, i.e., the critically acclaimed hornpipe:
-The Nail in the back of the Cow House Door on which the A.I. Man hangs his Trousers.
M.O.P.E. v. D.O.P.E.
Like a fly on the ski-run nose of Bob Hope
It poses upon Napoleon’s Nose: M.O.P.E.
Most Oppressed People Ever
So academic and oh so clever
Don’t Overlook Prodestant Ethnicleansing: D.O.P.E.
I have a remedy for ‘the poor don’t vote’!
Recently the SDLP thought they could buy votes by offering money to the parents of each child born, with the promise of another money gift when they reached a certain age.
Not that I agreed with that idea, but it gave me the thought, that if everyone was offered £50 to vote, it would certainly tempt the poor rather than the rich.
To make sure it was effective, it would have to be paid out as the voter put his/her ballot paper in the box.
Would that not be simpler to administer than resorting to the legal compulsion route, where chasing up defaulters would be very time consuming?
It’s clear to me that the PBP is being supported by many people who were formerly SF supporters, and also by people (mo mhacasamhail fein) who are independent republicans and do not like oSF’s seeking to have its tummy tickled by the establishment and business classes. A positive result of this has been the PBP’s rejection of Gerry Adam’s accusation that they were “Two nation” subscribers and their affirmation that their object was a 32 county republic painstakingly build from the bottom up. (I’m not sure that Boyd-Barret and Coppinger – admirable public representatives in their own way – would see the 32 county aspect of the organisation as a central issue). As regards voting I exercised my right not to vote. I explained to the very nice SF canvassers my reasons. (i) The SF candidate to whom I was being asked to give my vote attended the funeral of a prominent (Catholic)billionaire Unionist businessman known for his intolerance of and hostility towards trade unionism and his cavalier hiring and firing of his workforce (ii) not a single SF public representative travelled to Dublin for the centenary commemoration of the 1913 Lockout in spite of the fact that Jim and Delia Larkin had close associations with the Newry area. Sinn Fein in Newry did not organise a single event locally in connection with the centenary. (iii) SF in Newry gave full support to commemorations of the burning of the White House by the war criminal Robert Ross, a local chatelain and oppressor; they authorised the spending of a million pounds of taxpayers’ money and a further quarter of a million of ratepayers money on this jingoistic militaristic and pro-British fiasco. The SF chairman of the council travelled to the US for a “jolly” with the organiser of this grovel-fest, again at the ratepayers’ expense.. (iv) The leaflets distributed by SF made no mention of the Irish language apart from a minimalist “Votail Sinn Fein”. The SDLP in Newry has a history of obsequiousness towards all things British. So why should I vote for any of them? I exercised my right to stay at home. It will be argued by some that people died that I should have the right to vote. I would suggest that, equally, they died that i might have the choice not to vote.
If you substitute the word Unionist for Protestant in your article, does it make you look a bit too sectarian as you gleefully look on at Unionists aka Protestants becoming “older” and “smaller” in size?
What’s the point of all this “reaching out” malarkey if you know the person doing the reaching out is simultaneously counting down the days and hours to your ultimate demise. Not very Christian of mind and spirit that, especially on a Sunday too.
Kopp, I fail to see where in Jude’s article he is “gleefully” looking on at Unionists shrinking, could you point it out for me? Or is this a case of you seeing what you want to see? Or is this the Unionist Siege Mentality coming to the fore again? “They are all against us! they are plotting to push us into the Sea! Retreat and No Surrender!”.
The simple reality is is that the Protestant Unionist Loyalist (PUL- a term Unionists/Loyalists made for themselves) community is shrinking, it was first predicted in the late 1980’s because its simple arithmetic, if a population is aging, have 1-2 children at most (less than replacement level of a population, replacement level is 3 children, growth in the population is 4 or more) and emigrating then obviously Unionism is going to have far fewer voters. Paisley use to make smutty jokes and serious challenges to Protestant women on the 12th July to have more children and be in “competition” with Catholic women because he could see where things were going in the future.
The Catholic population is younger, are at child bearing age and are reproducing. The big issue is non voting. But in 40 years time if Catholics today don’t have 3 or more children then we will go the same way the Protestant community is going. That’s why I’m a strong supporter of the promotion of the Family and very anti-abortion.
“The Catholic population is younger, are at child bearing age and are reproducing. The big issue is non voting. But in 40 years time if Catholics today don’t have 3 or more children then we will go the same way the Protestant community is going. That’s why I’m a strong supporter of the promotion of the Family and very anti-abortion.”
You’re anti-abortion because you think it will reduce the size of the Roman Catholic population and thus prevent a Roman Catholic majority in Northern Ireland?
Wow.
“But – and it’s an important but – unionists have more than counter-balanced that growing gap by – guess what? – getting out and voting.”
Have you any evidence for this?
The sad reality is Jude is that we have this view and belief in our society, mainly fostered by Socialism, that ALL people are equal, we’re all the same, regardless of background, gender, colour, race, religion, etc but the reality is we’re not, we’re simply not the same, a Biologist would tell you that. Human beings are very irrational and complex creatures. We all want different things. We all have different beliefs about many different topics. There’s no “one size fits all” solution to humanity.
Looking at those statistics that’s just more evidence at how irrational most people are. The poor wont vote but yet they stand to gain the most by voting. The rich vote a lot more often but compared to the poor they stand to gain a lot less. Our very own Billy refuses to vote and even promotes non-voting amongst Republicans. How can all this even appear rational to anyone? What does Billy see the result being? How can helping Unionist politicians get into positions of power possibly help bring about Irish Unity? It makes it more unlikely! Its just a ridiculous stance to take. The same goes for the poor person not voting.
I listen to debates on youtube and one thing I listened to a while back was on the topic of IQ. The countries with the lowest average IQ are usually the poorest, the most crime ridden and the most backward. In contrast the countries with the highest average IQ are democracies, they have very low crime rates and are successful. One part of the debate was about voting and the statistics one Professor put forward was that people with a low IQ (say in the 80’s, Ireland’s average IQ is in the mid 90’s) are a lot less likely to vote. I would tend to agree with that and it does make sense. There are people whose life revolves around being devout followers of a football team (who usually don’t even win, more irrationality) or “soaps” like Emmerdale or Coronation Street (actors on TV pretending they have issues). These people would much rather watch an episode of Coronation street or watch a football match before they would even think of going out to vote and choose politicians who will seriously effect their lives.
On the other hand you have rich people. Now most rich people are high IQ, that’s to be expected. Most have businesses, they are in high paying professional jobs like doctors, lawyers, etc and these people are much, much more likely to vote as we see from the statistics. They are also much, much more likely to be interested in World affairs, economics, politics, etc because they know how much this can effect their lives and the lives of others.
So does IQ play a big part on voting patterns? Does a persons education? Would a person who went to University and graduated be much more likely to vote? compared to say a person who works in a low paying supermarket job stacking shelves or a hair dresser whose only education is an NVQ Level 2 at the local college? I would say it does.
I think if compulsory voting was brought in it might make a difference and it would be interesting to see the outcome but I think EDUCATION, I think Critical Thinking skills should be taught more at schools to children and to adults at College and Universities. But above all else, I think parents need to be encouraged to get involved in life long learning and especially get involved in their children’s education.
Ryan
You make some very valid and interesting points on IQ.
One thing the owners of ‘democracy’ do NOT want schools, universities, colleges,and hence populations, to engage in, – is ‘critical thinking’.
This is because ‘critical thinking’ involves forensic analysis and empirical, scientific, fact- based evidence and evaluation. In other words TRUTH. – This rational and ‘revisionist’ method of reporting history and events, which I term ‘truthrevisionism’ – demolishes almost everything that you will have been subjected to, and lied to, from the ‘controlled academia’ / corporate greed nexus.
Needless to say any deviation from the parameters of the ‘norm’ are usually dealt with swiftly by the gatekeepers and the reservation managers.
Perhaps this is best reflected, in the encouraging way that our emerging new generations of young people, have been conditioned to be aspirational, transgender, multicultural, high achieving xfactor contestants on the ‘Democracy Show’.
Behaviour modification Ryan is incremental in its nature and moves with a stealthy temperament, best suited for use with persons with high IQs and low cognitive reasoning.
Your absolutely correct TR.
Education, PROPER education (facts, seeing both sides arguments, Philosophy, accurate History, Critical Thinking, etc) isn’t taught in state schools. Why? because education is empowerment and that’s the last thing Governments want to do to their citizens. Its all about control, control is the key word. “Knowledge is Power” is an old saying but its absolutely true.
On the topic of IQ, according to scientists, its 60% genetic, 40% environment. So yes, people can improve their IQ. Food has a massive effect on your thinking. We often hear of Omega 3 fatty acids being very healthy for your brain and numerous studies have shown a big change in children’s IQ and their ability to learn after 6 months of being given Omega 3 Fish supplements every day. Maybe adults are more in need of them than children? When you look at the garage most people eat these days, like fast food where most of it is chemical and not even natural, its unsurprising that a lot of people (1 half of the planets population) suffer from mental health issues like Depression, Anxiety, Low self esteem, etc. This all negatively effects IQ.
We don’t really live in a democracy when it comes to serious issues, its an illusion of a democracy. Yes we can voice an opinion (as long as its politically correct, of course) but that has no influence on those who have their hands on the levellers of power. The European Union is a prime example. Look at how many agreements put to the vote and rejected by different European peoples, including the Irish. What was the EU’s response? Vote again until you come to the “correct” answer……see? there’s no democracy, just an illusion of one.
In a past life I was a visiting officer in a dole office.
In hundreds of visits to people on benefits the vast majority showed no sign of having a book or even a newspaper in the house. On many occasions there were children hanging around the house who should have been at school.
One thing they all had was huge TVs dominating the living space usually showing Jeremy Kyle or Loose Women.
Many of these people had no ambitions for themselves and even less for their children and there in lies a malaise that as long as the benefits keep getting paid they have no interest or input as regards who runs this place, its future or what is happening in the rest of the world. It neither interests or effects them.
And that is exactly were many in the political elite want to keep them. If people are economically engaged they are interested and motivated to protect their, their families and their communities interests.
Unfortunately as long as that welfare payment keeps coming many people are quite content to remain part of a moribund mass that lets others make decisions that are in many cases to their disadvantage.
To quote Larkin “The great appear great because we are on our knees: Let us rise”
That’d be Jim L, not Philip L…
if people are economically engaged they are interested and motivated to protect their families and their communities interests……………….. oh and theres me thinking it was the economically engaged [mackies,shipyard,ropeworks,ruc,bmen,that led the pogroms in 69,maybe they had their communities interest at heart as you say,if it wasnt for unemployable there would have been more burnt.on the big tellys i think they have moved on now to smart phones ya know the ones joan the moan bruton was saying the unemployed shouldnt have.
Yes Billy and the people who led the Civil Rights movement where not the types who sat on their arses they got up and did something about it.
I knew many the working class person back in the day who were as well read as any college professor. They didn’t have money but they had pride and an ambition for a better life for their children and community.
Poor people have NOTHING to gain from voting.
Because the poor have always been the veneer that legitimises the lie of ‘democracy’.
‘Two wolves and a sheep deciding on what to have for dinner’.
Democracy has always been the political fleecing of the poor, by the parasites that dwell amongst us.
I would disagree with you TR, I think that the poor have everything to gain from voting but as Jude and Ryan have stated they do not vote as often as the better of /more educated people.
I agree with you that the rich and powerful are quite happy with the current situation as the poor disenfranchise themselves by not voting but those at the top can claim that it is their own fault that they do not vote and that they have the same democratic rights as everyone else.
There will be no big drive by the establishment to encourage more people to vote as it would be contrary to their interests!
Jude,
Do you think the marked fall in the vote for the SDLP and Sinn Fein might have something to do with their relatively inclusive policies towards the marginalised in society. At the time of the gay marriage debate there were a number of outspoken priests claiming that Catholics should vote for the DUP rather than Nationalist parties because of their progressive policies.
If perusing Catholic doctrine is the most important thing in your life then voting for the SDLP or Sinn Fein was not going to be an option and most other Nationalist or moderate parties would have similar policies so there were only 2 realistic options for you –
1. Not vote
2. Vote for the DUP
I was at Mass the week before the election and there was a person at each door distributing election material from Precious life to parishioners entering the church. The election material told you who not to vote for.
I am going to give a quick summary of the voting advice:-
Alliance Party;- a vote for these candidates is a vote for abortion (listed 5 main candidates).
Green Party; – a vote for the Green Party is a vote for abortion
Independents- contact precious life for information.
NI Conservatives: – a vote for NI Conservatives is a vote for abortion.
People before Profit- a vote for People before Profit is a vote for abortion.
Sinn Féin- a vote for Sinn Féin is a vote for abortion.
SDLP- there is a very real concern that a number of MLA’s within the party support the fatal discrimination of disabled unborn children.
TUV – The TUV has traditionally been opposed to abortion.
UKIP – Abortion is a matter of individual conscience for members.
UUP – – a vote for these candidates is a vote for abortion (lists Mike Nesbitt and Andy Allen)
DUP- The DUP has historically been opposed to abortion and voted against the amendment. For the sake of the future generation of unborn children in Northern Ireland, it is vital that the DUP does not waver in its pro-life stance and keeps its pro-life promise.
It is not difficult to see who the pamphlet is urging potential voters to vote for all with the blessing of the Catholic hierarchy.
Might that explain some of the 5% drop?