One of the most overused cliches is Harold Wilson’s utterance, “A week is a long time in politics.” Although overused, it’s a completely accurate and true reflection of political life that can be attributed very much, in particular, to the politics of Northern Ireland. But for First Minister and DUP Leader, Arlene Foster, never mind a week in politics, the past number of weeks must have seemed like a political lifetime. Or maybe a life sentence. What Foster has done in this past few weeks is single -handedly damaged her leadership and the DUP beyond repair and beyond what any other political party could have dared dream of. If Foster was handing out lessons on how to mishandle and exacerbate a crisis, she would have adorned the status of “expert” by this stage.
It wasn’t all that long ago when Foster appeared as a somewhat buoyant and confident leader of political Unionism. For some, she brought hope and the prospect of change from the “old-guard DUP.” One of Peter Robinson’s trusted allies, she talked of the party’s “style of leadership changing” when she took the reins. Even then, Secretary of State Theresa Villiers was sanguine: “I am sure that Arlene will be committed to doing the right thing for everyone in Northern Ireland.” In a seamless leadership transition, she defied the political pundits and delivered the DUP’s best ever result in May 2016 Assembly elections – some 70,000 more votes than the other Unionist parties combined. 38 MLAs returned with 202,567 voters and a DUP-dominated Executive. She couldn’t have been in a better, more comfortable position. At her annual party conference in October 2016 she was well-delivered and well-received by the party faithful. Sustained applause throughout her speech was an indication of someone in their political prime, the honeymoon period was still being relished and cherished. To an ovation, she proceeded onto the stage, to the musical hit, “We are Family”. During her leadership speech she mentioned that “Twelve months ago Northern Ireland was a byword for political crisis and instability, devolution was in crisis, Stormont was teetering on the brink.” She talked about her rivals being “cocky” and the fact that “Stormont was not just stabilised but secured.” She attacked the political pundits who were “predicting the demise of the DUP.” She talked about grassroots politics and the DUP’s understanding of the people, “Unlike others, we will remain in touch with what real people care about … The DUP will help shape Northern Ireland for decades to come.” Jokes were cracked, an air of fluency permeated her speech and a rendition of “Arlene’s on Fire” ended her first speech as leader of the Party. All ended well it seemed …. Or did it?
Fast forward three months. From political nobility and superiority to potential political liability for the DUP? The buoyancy and confidence has been replaced with arrogance, egotism and hubris. In a number of interviews she not only went on the attack but went on the rampage, taking everyone and anyone with her. The endless blame- game list was exposed.
She was right – her leadership style has most certainly changed from that of Robinson and Paisley and this is not compliment. Her authoritarian style of leadership was similar to Robinson’s but her judgement, eye for detail, strategic awareness and tactile is shocking. Her handling of the RHI debacle and allegations of involvement and mismanagement illustrate she is doing what is right for her, not the people of Northern Ireland. Her current performance illustrates that the honeymoon period is most certainly over and “We are Family” song title should be more appropriately replaced with that of rapper, Eminem, “Family problems.” We find ourselves in the same situation which she trumpeted had been the case 12 months earlier – Northern Ireland is in political crisis and unstable. Devolution and the future of the institutions are in crisis. Stormont is teetering on the brink and its survival looks, in my opinion, improbable. Foster has succeeded in ensuring that what was seemingly “secure” is now insecure. What she inherited is about to be lost. The DUP will shape Northern Ireland for decades to come, at the tax payers’ expense and likely at the behest of the Tories, who will continue to decimate this place, if Direct Rule kicks in. During that Conference speech we got a subtle glimpse of the arrogance we have witnessed in the past few weeks. Opposition parties were ridiculed with what Brian Feeney described as “vulgarian terms” with “dismissive snarls.” It easier to make insults when you’re confident. It is more difficult when you are not! It is clear that Foster has not remained in touch with what the people want and what is best for them. A projected overspend of £490 million is nothing to be sneered at it or undermined. In fact, when leadership and accountability were needed most, they were absent.
If she had an iota of decency and humility she would have stepped aside and allowed an investigation – all in the name of public confidence. There has been no evidence of wrong doing, but if exonerated after an investigation, I feel she may have returned as leader of the DUP and First Minister in that position she found herself in October 2016, perhaps stronger. She has chosen the wrong path, she reverted to petty, petulant and imperious behaviour, and so has sacrificed herself and any progress that had been made. She was the one who played the game of “chicken” and as a result she had to take the run, albeit not knowing what was coming and from what direction. Foster was handed a political lifeline but instead used it as a whip to try and beat everyone around her – the same lifeline that could now end her political life / career.
No doubt her actions and inability to deal rationally or reasonably with the RHI Scandal will lead to disillusionment amongst some of the unionist electorate; but was reinstating (via Paul Givan) the Liofa Grants in what seemed a gesture to Sinn Fein, a step that would concern some of the more hardline DUP supporters? Those who see any type of concession to Nationalists as the end game? Desperate situations require desperate measures. Who could have known that the rendition of “Arlene’s on fire” would be replaced with a political inferno that could well have set Foster’s political career, that of her party and the future of devolution ablaze?
In her leadership speech, Foster only mentioned Sinn Fein once, making a point about electoral dominance over them. Her recent relationship and refusal to take advice from Sinn Fein has put what I feel was an already rocky relationship on the rocks’ edge. But has Foster, through her actions and demeanour, handed the momentum to her political rivals, Sinn Fein?
It seems the confidence and buoyancy that Foster showed only a short few months ago has gone full circle. Sinn Fein, it seems, have had a bit of a political reawakening – they appear in public to be in control and now have their eyes firmly set on an up-and-coming election. The Sinn Fein vote in the North has been in decline, more notably in some constituencies than others. Is this the impetus needed to reverse this trend? I have in the past been a critic of Sinn Fein but I feel they have been tactically astute and more clinical in their handling this time, awake at the wheel whilst some DUP representatives have had their heads out the window looking backwards.
But will this equate to electoral success? Can they bring more Nationalists (or others) out to vote for them? Can they entice back those disillusioned ex voters who have been telling Sinn Fein what Sinn Fein are now telling them? There is common ground – frustration. Frustration must be met with guarantees of progress. The “status quo” must be consigned to history as has been promised.
Challenges most certainly lie ahead. Can they challenge PBP in West Belfast (who may run two candidates)? Are the SDLP a credible alternative at this time? I don’t think so. I believe Sinn Fein are currently in a better place than they have been in the past but that will only be measured in electoral gains. If they can’t make electoral gains now in the midst of a political storm, does this illustrate that Sinn Fein’s vote in the North has finally ceilinged out?
It’s unlikely there will be a political earthquake off the Richter scale though I do feel there is the possibility of movement. The DUP will remain the largest Unionist party, albeit with a decline in their vote share. They are damaged and have now to prepare their arsenal as they hit the door steps of a disillusioned and angry electorate. Other than the DUP, what are alternatives? Undoubtedly this will be an election of mud slinging or “Trump” style politics. The TUV remain a one-man band – Jim Allister remains a formidable force in his own right but doesn’t have the personnel, structures or numbers to make a big difference. The PUP have failed to make any significant inroads and I don’t feel they have the structure or organisation to make a difference. UKIP are in terminal decline and the Northern Ireland Conservatives are dead. The UUP under Mike Nesbitt still seem despondent. This could have been their big opportunity to make political capital but Nesbitt’s UUP remind one more of a bygone political era, people who want more than they are capable of having. They are in the toddler’s pool and not ready to make that step into the big boys (and girls) pool. Would those disillusioned with the DUP make the move across to Alliance, Greens or PBP? Or, will the DUP bounce back? It’s all to play for.
Liberal politician Joseph Chamberlain stated “In politics, there is no use looking beyond the next fortnight.” I can only imagine Foster faces the next fortnight and beyond in dread – angry Arlene needs a rethink but I feel the damage has been done. She once described the new UUP / SDLP opposition as a “one term wonder” – it looks somewhat probable that her political legacy as DUP leader and First Minister may not even be a “one term wonder.” It’s clear Foster has continually played her cards wrong. Has Foster applied too much pressure to the Stormont “house of cards” and will she be dealt a bad hand by the electorate? She did promise, when quoting C.S Lewis that there are “far, far better things ahead.” Really? Will that be “with or without you”?
All i can say is that peopleI know who have a lifelong hatred of SFand a lifelong adherence to the SDLP (people who I would never pass the time of day to) are saying to others that SF have played this 100% and have the DUP cornered.