How To Deal With Arlene and the Right-Wing by Donal Lavery

 

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When Arlene Foster became First Minister I had mixed thoughts and feelings. I have no doubt that she is an able individual; a Solicitor by trade and someone astute enough to make the journey from UUP stalwart to leader of the right-wing party that opposed the then monumental shift to  rectifying the struggles of the Nationalist people – which was the Good Friday Agreement. She comes from the Landed Gentry class, the “Orange Aristocracy” as Connolly opined, which have governed this artificial statelet from its inception. On social issues, I dare say she is a bit more open minded than her predecessors in the DUP and she is a mother, so she does have a stake in there being a prosperous future throughout this island.

She has been good at attracting investment to these shores, I don’t doubt that. She knows her brief and she can articulate it well in some instances. But she, like her predecessors, is constantly looking over her shoulder at the far-right agenda of the TUV and Mike Nesbitt’s efforts. She knows, more than most, that a loss of confidence in power-sharing is the impetus which Jim Allister needs to weaken not just her party but to bring down the House of Cards which they wish to maintain.

Let’s be clear about something – Unionists more than anyone fear a return to Direct Rule. As a term, it sounds ideal to a Unionist, because we would be going back to “British Direct Rule”. But as one canny Unionist leader pointed out, “just look at what the British Government did” – “They are the ones who imposed mandatory coalition; They are the ones who put Sinn Fein into Government; All of these were the demands of a British Government.”

So, there still exists a siege mentality within the Unionist psyche which needs devolution to work. For if it fails, and the British, Irish and American administrations have to come in and agree a consensus as to what comes next, then we will encounter what Ian Paisley so vocally dreaded – “Plan B”. That is, some form of eventual Joint Sovereignty between a government in London and one in Dublin.

However narrow Theresa May’s majority is in the Commons, she cannot hold out in favour of the Unionist votes against the outside pressure of the more key stakeholders who must, by statute, guarantee the interests and safeguards of the Nationalist people. After all, we are the majority on this island. The progress which has been made to date is of our volition, not the Unionists.

The only people who can settle the anxieties of the DUP after this RHI fiasco are in fact Sinn Fein. Undoubtedly, there will have to be an objective investigation of some sort into the alleged corruption of this scheme and abuse of public monies. But the threat to collapse the institution which is ever so dear to the Unionist heart, must be the card to play in this dilemma. It must be used as bargaining chips to extract much needed reforms from the Unionists, whether through gritted teeth or superficial smiles. The threat of proroguing Stormont may be the one thing which temporarily saves it. For they know, and the moment could come sooner rather than later, that no prudent British Government cares that much for them to continue to pump slush money into a former Orange State they secretly wish to see the back of; once and for all.

 

7 Responses to How To Deal With Arlene and the Right-Wing by Donal Lavery

  1. billy January 3, 2017 at 9:34 am #

    will dublin be prepared to pay their half of the money every year towards plan b..i would doubt it.

  2. fiosrach January 3, 2017 at 10:34 am #

    Are you sure, a Dhómhnaill, that Arlene came from the Landed gentry? All I know is that her father was a bus driver. Enlighten us ,please.

  3. Beachguy January 3, 2017 at 10:43 am #

    Billy may be on to something. Aside from inherited sentiment will the lads and lassies residing to the south want to ultimately take on the still armed loyalist paramilitary \ criminal gangs, the wee Marching Season, high unemployment and a bloated public beaurocracy?

    Not so fast they might say.

    • paddykool January 3, 2017 at 12:14 pm #

      The only way that might conceivably happen, Beachguy , is if Sinn Fein get to the point of actually driving that southern bus. Only then will they be in a position for the south to accept that onerous challenge wholeheartedly .I would imagine that if it came to that point and armed loyalist groups were fighting their countrymen in the north, you’d have to ask …”What for?” By that time the political Establishment at Westminster would have finally been given the excuse to dump dear old Norneverland and the place would be unsupported to the point of poverty anyway. It’s not as if they wouldn’t vote to drop those bloody Paddies in the same way they voted for Brexit, if given the chance. It’s not as if a couple of north-eastern counties and a few towns and villages could declare UDI like some latter-day “Passport to Pimlico” comedy scenario and still be self-sustaining. They’d have to get a grip very quickly and realise that violent action will result in very little of value..
      At the moment Sinn Fein is doing a little sabre -rattling , but the very most it can bring is another useless , time-wasting election. It’s all they can do , of course, if they want to save this particular project, but I ‘ve a notion that they’d rather the DUP crashed this one rather than themselves, so it’ll mean an election with the same corruption or incompetence unresolved. You might say that the only way out of it is for no-one to vote at all if it comes to that projected election. I don’t think that prospect frightens the DUP. They would see it as a validation of their own crooked process. If it collapses….that would mean both the Republic and the UK stepping back in. That would put us back to a whole hullabaloo just like the Anglo-Irish Agreement which is bread and butter to unionism and another excuse to get out and march and rant.I’m not sure that the nationalist population would want Arlene or anyone like her in government ever again , having a say in their future, given all the scandals that party has its hands in .I’ve a notion it might put even more people off voting for any of them at all.

  4. fiosrach January 3, 2017 at 12:22 pm #

    I think, Harry, that if it came to a bad day at Black Gulch and the loyalist rump were forced into a Gaza type situation in Antrim and Down, then the Britishers (the real ones) would step in and allow them to set up a state and subsidise them – sort of back door Las Malvinas for their “own”.

    • paddykool January 3, 2017 at 1:38 pm #

      You mean they’d parachute Red Cross parcels down on Carrickfergus to feed the UDA…eh?

  5. giordanobruno January 4, 2017 at 8:56 am #

    Donal
    This just does not seem that likely to me.
    Although the DUP may not want Direct Rule I don’t think SF really want it either.
    First it is a comfortable gravy train for a lot of people. That is reality
    Second it would be telling people in the South that SF cannot make things work as part of a government,and that is not the message they want to send.
    Third,if it is being used as a bargaining chip I fear the DUP might call that bluff,calculating that fresh elections would hurt SF more than it would hurt them.
    Fourth, the British government certainly do not want to be drawn back into running things here, much preferring to let us squabble away,so they will resist firmly,even if it means throwing in a few more sweeteners.
    It looks more likely that this current crisis will be resolved by a fudge of some sort, say an inquiry that goes nowhere and an Irish Language Act to appease SF.