Finally the brexit process has begun and there is no going back, not to the borders of the past apparently, but new frictionless borders which no one has been able to spell out what will be, other than to suggest some imaginative thinking is required.
While we are waiting for this minister for imaginative thinking to be appointed, I believe some imaginative thinking has taken place already.
To shore up support for the UK union, Theresa May declared this was important to her and that she would visit all of the devolved regions of the UK.
Clearly this imaginative thinking led to her deciding better of coming to Belfast.
It made me wonder how the imaginative thinking process might have happened.
First of all the red lines.
No return to the borders of the past which means they don’t want to send troops over to die defending them and presumably the Irish Army response to manning them could well be, feck off.
No change to the common travel area.
Not red lines but preferences.
Free trade between Ireland north and south
Free trade between both islands
Of course, free trade between the UK and EU is also a desirable.
And the EU response.
EU borders must remain EU borders, i.e. no trade agreements except those bought into.
In other words, Britain’s insistence on no return to borders of the past will cost them money as that is the currency the EU trades in.
It is also the language the UK trades in though.
Solution #1, the union is safe, all they have to do is throw lots of money into the EU coffers and the problem will go away.
At least until saving money becomes an issue.
But then, manned borders weren’t cheap either, especially if conflict breaks out again which is the most likely outcome, in fact an almost guaranteed outcome of the emergence of a visible border in any shape.
Ok, so we pay the EU for free trade with Ireland.
Will that solve the problems?
The next priority post-divorce settlement will be new trade agreements with the rest of the world.
Trump is all up for free trade with the UK and then there is the commonwealth, so what problems could there be?
Well, the fees to the EU cover free trade across the EU border in Ireland with other parts of the UK.
It is unlikely the EU will ignore the fact that the UK seeking new trade deals with the world is coming, so you can expect in the small print, that any new agreements which will negatively impact on the EU’s trade deals with those countries will be met with resistance.
Increasing costs for this EU frontier could well be one means of controlling the risk.
In effect the NI border could be a recurring issue with every new trade deal sought.
Oh dear, any wonder she never bothered coming over, never mind all of the border protests here to greet her.
Probably already imaginatively thinking, what a bloody awful place.
So what about offloading some of these costs.
Dublin has been a cold house to the north showing very little interest in unity, especially in paying for it.
The cute hoors have when it comes to money, always been imaginative thinkers and will expect to be paid to take the problem of the north off their hands.
What about the unionists, they would sell their grannies to remain in the UK.
They have been stifling the economy to prevent any movement that could even point in the direction of unity for decades.
Extra taxes to remain loyal servants to the UK, no problem.
Except unionists no longer have a majority and going forward will be a minority, especially if nationalist confidence in the electoral process takes hold.
Not to mention the north simply couldn’t afford it and would be expecting a good financial return from brexit. More money, oh dear.
Did we mention the north voted to remain within the EU and Scotland will also need economic stroking to maintain the union.
It’s all money.
So what about leaving Ireland altogether, cutting all ties.
That would reduce the complexity of brexit negotiations, the most important in UK history.
It would save money, passing on running costs to Dublin which could recoup them through finally being able to grow an all island economy.
The UK would be free to do trade deals with the world without a troublesome EU land border to complicate things at every turn.
Brexit means Britain is leaving the EU, if the circumstances in Ireland mean it will remain within the EU, then Britain must leave Ireland.
Is that imaginative enough I wonder?
Less cost demands from the EU.
Guarantees huge trade with Ireland continues.
Peace is guaranteed.
Ireland prospers, might even leave the EU and re-join the UK in a new dispensation, turn the threat into an opportunity.
Any wonder more and more British politicians are supporting a referendum on Irish unity.
It doesn’t take that much of an imagination to see its inevitability.
I’ve been mulling over Brexit for a while and find myself in consensus with your opinions.They ,the English , in typical perfidious fashion , devised an opportunity to keep a military , political and financial foothold in a newly ( unquantified ) emerging independent Ireland , and decided to create a permanent sectarian statelet to oversee their own nefarious plans. They already had a compliant majority in the area pre-installed centuries before..After their garrison was bedded down ,they in typical colonial fashion cared little about the native population or their welfare and as usual took their eye of the ball.1969 suddenly confronted them but even with all the money and military muscle they could muster Ireland remained a bilious sore……The GFA temporarily let them off the hook ….and they relaxed again. However ,xenophobia was emerging once more and without any consideration for the consequences ,and in ” Little Englander ” mode Brexit was their next ingenious plan…but they had inadvertently disregarded Ireland another time…..but this may be that final and very very expensive straw . Out of Europe ,London is not going to remain a pivitol financial hub. They have grand ideas about world trading , but with whom ? America is bankrupt to the tune of $20 trillion ( or if social security etc is counted ,about $200 trillion ) Asia is the fast growing trading bloc but Britain manufactures little of interest ,there is still a colonial aftertaste and Russia is an established senior member. All in all it’s a depressing slide towards a third world economy that most certainly cannot afford to keep that ” Bloody awful place “
“Out of Europe ,London is not going to remain a pivitol financial hub.”
That is not the way the English will see it Eolach.
They will be determined to preserve London as the worlds pivotal financial hub.
I guess we will find out over the coming years how far they will be prepared to go but it will cost them.
I don’t see any way they can avoid a trade war with the EU coming down the road.
And I honestly don’t believe there is any chance of the EU winning a trade war with the UK.
The UK started preparing for it well over 10 years ago.
Quite some problem.
In respect of the CTA, it’s a matter you and I need not fear, as citizens of the Republic of Ireland, Irish Republic pending, we can go wherever in Ireland we wish, the Garda National Immigration Bureau, I’ve had my arguments, personally and professionally with these useless git’s in the past, can determine if you’re Irish, looks and accent are usually sufficient, albeit my London based nephew and niece may have issue in the future, a brit will have to have identification sufficient to satisfy the jumped up traffic warden’s, that they are from Britain, we don’t need it, just as my cousin’s in Monaghan don’t either.
On free trade, what about home heating oil, subject still to bloc exemption, or vehicles?
I should advise we all listen to today’s Callan’s Kicks, hilariously funny, based entirely on truth, this is where we live, these are the idiots we elect to govern us, say’s more for us I suppose but,
http://www.rte.ie/radio/utils/radioplayer/rteradioweb.html#!rii=b9%5F10704713%5F13004%5F01%2D04%2D2017%5F
If you gave Fianna Fáil (Deputies) and Fine Gael (all of) enough money they would joyfully arrange a referendum on giving up the Republic my family died for, to rejoin the united kingdom and screw the little people, you know this Jessica, problem is, too many live out of the real world.
On the return of a ‘border’ (I’ve said before, in my mind it does not exist) it will be necessary, unlike that lying Taoiseach, the existence of border checks previously was not the cause of the war here, it was the existence of brit militia’s which led to this, but to prevent widespread transfer of cheaper goods from the six to twenty six, especially when the bust comes back in 18 months, in televisions and other electronic goods, drink, food etc. can only be done if they stop and search. Brit troops may need be deployed to assist in supervision of cross jurisdictional checks.
Is this acceptable to you as a Republican Jessica?
It actually is to me, and I make Jim Lynagh look like he was saft, because, again, I’d prefer to live in a united kingdom than a united states of europe, simply because I care for our children’s future.
I am not a European and I have no interest in the EU at all, but I could live with Ireland inside the EU easier than I can live under English rule.
Ireland within the UK would not in my opinion offer the best future for our children.
Mark, when has England ever cared for what is in the best interests of Irish children?
I personally think it would be a terrible mistake to trust the english with any control in Ireland and an even greater mistake to send their troops back over here.
their troops never left.
Hi Jessica, I have mentioned this before, the threat, for everyone, and recognised by those of us who read the Lisbon Treaty, is from German militarism.
This, I believe, is the threat to our children. The brit’s, despite press ganging and Redmond, have never formally introduced conscription to Ireland, thought through, we may be able to negotiate a deal to permit all our, re-united, jurisdictions, to be commonwealth members while remaining a Republic.
The women and men who fought for freedom did not do so to hand control of our country to the hun.
“I don’t see any way they can avoid a trade war with the EU coming down the road.
And I honestly don’t believe there is any chance of the EU winning a trade war with the UK”
I’d love to hear your reasoning for this, Jessica
.
The EU has 40 years of legislative experience and been responsible for all trade deals in that time.
It will be like us trying to get something from the UK, no chance and even what you do get you cannot trust.
The UK negotiation team will be totally ill equipped to deal with them first of all, they will have rings run around them and small print thrown up to bite them until they simply get frustrated and will turn around to the people of the UK claiming that the EU are being unreasonable which will be accepted not only by the people of the UK but throughout the commonwealth.
The UK have been trying to persuade the EU away from political union and to include commonwealth countries in the free market for over 15 years, they have already been discussing this with those nations and have written many white papers on commonwealth wide free trade deals.
Negotiations have been taking place in possible arrangements for some time.
It is inconceivable to me that the UK will not get free trade deals with all of the commonwealth and the EU will not be able to stop this.
The greatest interest the EU has for the UK is its combined research and development resource which they will be loath to lose out from and will pay.
Once the EU use this as leverage, all bets will be off and the gloves will be in the fire.
The UK will attack their financial markets and make London more attractive than the EU regardless of the cost creating a tax haven with sweeteners for taking business away from the EU.
Car import duties will be 100% for imports and you will find BMW will open a factory inside the UK to produce BMW cars. Even German businesses will not back the EU in the trade war which will ensue.
The US will back the UK, they already don’t trust the EU and do not like the idea of Europe one day controlling a stronger economy than the US.
With the borders closed, there will be even more immigrants in German and French cities which are already swamped and unrecognisable. Their tolerant nature is already at breaking point and it is only a matter of time before the next nation will leave the EU. My money would be on Netherlands.
Ireland will wait until the ship starts to sink and will time our exit on collapse to avoid paying any divorce settlements.
You will find Fine Gael have already discussed how this will play out and at what point their allegiance to the UK will become public knowledge.
The real problem is the floating displaced population throughout the EU who are ready made armies in waiting if things start to edge towards another world war.
If any one part of this planet should never have tried to form a political union, it was Europe.
Those are some of my thoughts on it dedeideoprofundis
How do you see it playing out?
if le penn wins in france.its over.
It is a house of cards billy but a matter of when not if they fall
Mark, the EU will collapse. I am aware of the EU wide army plans, to be paid for by the constituent parts no less, and the fact open borders are creating a ready made army in waiting that will be the largest on the planet. It is all going only one direction, to extend east and reclaim the territory of the Ottoman Empire which will conflict with the plans of the US and turn them against the EU and Germany in particular.
Which is why I believe the US will side with the UK in a trade war.
There is not a lot Ireland can do about it though, we need to look after our own best interests in the mean time.
ready made army..they wont even stay in their own countries and fight.ffs.they leave that to the women and childer.
If you look at how the Nazis conscripted in WW2, you might see why I see it as a floating army