A friend has drawn my attention to an opinion poll conducted by Lucid Talk recently. All opinion polls are capable of getting things totally and/or partially wrong, but it’s reasonable to assume they are fair guides to the future, otherwise polling companies like Lucid Talk would rapidly find themselves out of business.
The most striking feature of this poll is that over 60% here think a border poll should be called within the next ten years. That’s a lot of people. And you’ll note that nearly half the population want a poll sooner – inside five years. Given the growth of the Catholic/Nationalist population, that’s likely to be over 50% in five years time.
The other striking feature is that there are some people who don’t want a border referendum at all. Never. Not anytime. So there’s a die-hard core, presumably unionist, who fear that a border pol might bring a united Ireland into being.
The commentary on the poll reminds us that Leo Varadkar has declared the desirability of a bigger majority than just 50% plus 1, since a squeak-through margin might lead to division. I can’t imagine anyone disagreeing with that. Certainly all nationalists and republicans would like a bigger majority in favour of unity. But the fact remains that even 50% + 1 is what the Good Friday Agreement says should trigger constitutional change. Either you accept democratic decision-making or you don’t. Presumably the Taoiseach does. Those in the poll who think the margin should be set higher than 50%+ 1 should go back and re-read the Good Friday Agreement.
The final and eye-catching element of the Lucid Talk poll shows that over 55% of people would vote to remain in the UK, and just some 34% of people would vote for a united Ireland. Which makes any excitement about earlier parts of the research look a bit silly. But as Lucid Talk points out, that’s asking people now would they favour a united Ireland. Five or ten years of living with Brexit might well soften the cough of those still attached to Mother Britain’s apron strings. And then there’s that damned rise in the nationalist/republican population. Could it be that Paisley’s fear of being out-bred by fenians would eventually be the nightmare that comes true?
Food, as they say, for thought. Meanwhile, well done Lucid Talk. These are the kind of reports we need to base our political discussion on. Certainly the notion of avoiding a border poll because it might upset unionists if they didn’t win is not just anti-democratic but stupid as well.
http://www.northernslant.com/lucidtalk-poll-should-there-be-a-referendum-on-irish-unity/
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