Does it matter who wins the presidential race in the US? If you answer ‘No’ to that question, maybe you should join the Sleepy Joe section of the class.
Word in some quarters is that Boris Johnson is holding off his final decision about a hard, no-deal Brexit or a slightly less-hard agreement with the EU. If Trump is elected, Johnson will feel emboldened and pin his hopes on a favourable trade deal with the US, chlorinated chicken and all. And go for a hard Brexit, with a more than likely crisis about a border in Ireland returning. If Trump loses, Johnson and all the fledgling dictators dotted around the world will feel the impact, and their collective coughs will be considerably softened by a President Biden. And the possibility of a border returning in Ireland will be diminished considerably.
So faraway events can send tremors through local politics. Ask yourself this question, and give your instinctive reply: would a Trump win be good or bad for Ireland? It doesn’t take a weatherman to know which way the wind blows.
Finally, let’s look at the one group of hard-eyed people who make a handsome living out of predicting events. On Paddypower this morning, they note that Trump being outpolled in the popular vote but returned to office has gone from 2/1 to 5/2. Not much faith in Trump there. As to who will be the next US president, Biden is at 4/9 and Trump is at 7/4. Not much faith in a Trump win there. And swing states: Trump was at 3-1 to win Georgia, Florida and Texas and Arizona; he’s now at 7/2.
It goes on. And what about the lines of people waiting up to eleven hours at polling booths ? (Virginia, I do not know why or how people can vote before Voting Day, but they’re doing it. Even Trump has already voted). Polls indicate that the number of young people turning out to vote has doubled, trebled, quadrupled and probably more from the last presidential election. And overall, the expectation is that even in this year of Covid, more people will vote in the US presidential election than in any other presidential election held over the last 100 years.
To repeat: it don’t take a weatherman to know which way the wind blows.