I detest the question “Would you or would you not vote for a united Ireland tomorrow?”. For the very good reason that you’d be trying pin a border poll tail on a UI donkey in a pitch-black cellar. There is, however , one area where a reunited Ireland is heartily disliked: Fianna Fail and Fine Gael.
Ask an FFer or a FGer do they favour a united Ireland and they’d twist themselves inside out trying to persuade you they longed for the day, bring it on. Unfortunately, they’d be lying to you.
Regardless of what kind of united Ireland was achieved, neither of the big parties would want it. Yes, they say they long for it. Micheál Martin points proudly to his Shared Island project, Leo Varadkar speaks of the need for a concrete strategy for reunification. Don’t believe a word from their mouths.
Both parties are St Augustine men: Lord, make me pure but not yet. They’re all for a united Ireland as long as it’s not possible now. The unionists would be upset if we started planning, so maybe let’s confine ourselves to a few vague words about a UI.
All of this is window-dressing.If Irish reunification occurred, it would damage both parties irreparably. For a century, since the implementation of partition, both the FEers and the FGers have enjoyed lapping up that magical brew, Power. Granted, they occasionally had to set down their spoon and move from the table, as a rival arrived, but there wasn’t much difference between the two parties and so you never really noticed much difference.
But here we have the prospect of nearly two million new voters, with around half of them claiming Britishness. That would upset the FF-FG exclusive apple-cart completely. And no one likes being plunged into a new and uncertain situation.
So when you think about it, Irish unity will indeed be a dream until FF and FG stop pirouetting away from the topic and yelling that it’ll upset the unionists, there must be northern reconciliation first.
Here’s the thing: there’s a triple lock on a border poll. The first lock is Fine Gael, the second lock is Fianna Faill, and the third lock is one million unionists.Who wants a new Ireland with all those pesky Northerners? The taigs would be clamouring for a different kind of Ireland, the prods would be clamouring for a return of British imperialism.
How do you know FF and FG members don’t want national unity? Look at their faces. They’ll never serve in government with Sinn Fein because that’d mean addressing what republicanism really is, and receiving the likes of Sammy Wilson and Jim Allister, whinging about their British identity. It could be that 2030 is a good time to have a border poll, but it’ll involve in the meantime sounds wailing and the gnashing of teeth by the two big Southern parties presently congratulating themselves that they’d once again seen off the threat of Dáil invasion by a Northern plague.
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