In the old silent movie Safety Last, there’s a famous scene where Harold Lloyd is shown, twelve storeys up, hanging from the arms of a clock. Leo Varadkar and Micheál Martin, emerging this morning from a feverish sleep, must be feeling a bit like Lloyd. They did everything possible to slow the progress of Sinn Féin in the election, including selective compassion for the mother of a man murdered thirteen years ago. In vain. Sinn Féin, their big nightmare, is up there with them. All changed, etc.
Sinn Féin had a number of factors working against them besides the leaders of Fianna Fail and Fine Gael. They’d done poorly in the European election and in the local elections in the south, losing near to half their candidates in some cases. Leo and Micheál were falling over themselves to disassociate themselves from this faltering, violent-past party. And Sinn Féin had shown its nervousness, its concern to consolidate reflected in the 42 candidates it put forward, unlike Fianna Fail and Fine Gael with over 80 candidates each.
Yet despite all that, their first preference votes, according to exit polls, show them right up there with FF and FG. This is a tide that is not going out.
It’s possible but unlikely that Micheál and Leo will go back on their repeated refusal to enter into coalition with Sinn Féin. If they do, I hope Sinn Féin takes a long hard look and says no. If FF and FG remain true to their anti-Shinner vows, it’s either another round of confidence-and-supply between FF and FG (hugely risky for both parties) or some effort by FF/FG to cobble together enough Independent TDs into a ramshackle coalition.
The vote-counting has just begun, but from here it looks like there may be another election before the end of 2020. Which must be music to the ears of Mary Lou.
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