South of the border, squeaky-bum time approaches. The expectation is that the negotiating parties of Fine Gael, Fiánna Fail and the Greens may well come to an agreement on a programme for government by the end of this week. Then it’s over to the members of the party to endorse or not endorse.
The Greens this morning are reported as rejecting a FG-FF offer of just below 6.5% per annum for carbon emissions : they say 7% is their red line. So it’ll be tight. My guess: Fine Gael and Fiánna Fail will eventually agree to 7%, just as a car salesperson always keeps a final little concession up her/his sleeve so you walk away thinking you’ve really triumphed in the deal. When you haven’t.
But it’s possible that agreement won’t be reached – the Greens are like the scalded cat that once sat on a hot stove: they approach all stoves, hot and cold, with great caution. If a deal isn’t reached, Pat Leahy in today’s Irish Times lists four possibilities: (i) Keep talking and try again; (ii) Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil approach a range of independent TDs for an agreement; (iii) A general election; (iv) Sinn Féin and the Social Democrats, with the Greens and Fiánna Fail, would try to form a centre-left government.
It’s the last of these that I’d like to look at more closely. Pat Leahy says that if the fourth option – Sinn Féin, the Social Democrats, the Greens and Fianna Fáil – were to come together, it “ would almost certainly require a change of leader in Fianna Fáil, and any new leader would have to overcome the deep antipathy in the organisation (which is much greater than the reluctance to coalesce with Fine Gael) to a deal with Sinn Féin.”
So why would Fianna Fáil have to dump Micheál Martin and why would the party’s members find coalescing with Fine Gael easier than a coalition with Sinn Féin?
When last asked this question, Micheál Martin said it was because Sinn Féin had never said they were sorry about the Troubles in the north. Not so. On 16 July, 2002, the IRA issued an apology to the families of “non-combatants” killed by it during the Troubles. On 19 February 2013 Gerry Adams referred to an earlier apology he had made to the family of Garda Jerry McCabe and said that to make progress, “all of us have to come up to the plate and apologise and I’m prepared to do it.” On 2 July 2012, Martin McGuinness said “I regret the loss of every single life, including the loss of British soldiers and those who were close to the queen of England.”
In January, Leo Varadkar said he wouldn’t talk to Sinn Féin or form a coalition with them because Sinn Féin is “not a normal party”, and it’s not a normal party because its decisioning-making “involves consulting its ard chomhairle (ruling executive)” and that decisions then “are not necessarily made by elected politicians”.
Which may be true – I don’t know and I’d say Leo doesn’t know either, hence the tentative “not necessarily made” bit. But let’s assume that political decisions are made by Sinn Féin after consultation with its ard comhairle. Then the problem is…what? I’m willing to bet £50 that Fine Gael consults with non-elected people when it’s coming to an important decision. As does Fianna Fáil. As do the Greens. As does any political party. Sorry, Leo. Nice try but no cigar.
The truth is – a truth which FG and FF would rather be flayed alive than admit- is that both parties are desperate to prevent Sinn Féin “coming down here” as Micheál once phrased it, and breaking up the two-party dominance in the south that’s been there for the past 100 years.
And I’ll be honest – I feel their pain. I feel Leo’s pain, I feel Micheál’s pain. In their shoes, I’d be equally neurotic at the prospect of an all-Ireland party which might just be serious about Irish reunification getting its hands on the levers of power. Especially since both Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael are supposed to have been working for reunification over the last 100 years. Nobody likes to be caught having a century-long snooze on the job.
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