Is the North of Ireland really just an economic drain? by Seamas Óg

There has been a lot of discussion on how to get a United Ireland; will it happen? What will it look like? How can unionists be persuaded to vote for it? Although I think the more important question is how can all Catholics in the North and Southerners in general be persuaded? It will come down to politics. Political parties offering a clear vision and from the debates the economic case will be key to winning the hearts and minds of the voters. So what are the real economic figures behind the northern political statelet? Is Westminster really funding us? Will we drag the South into an economic black hole?

A headline figure in the Tele claimed “Northern Ireland pays less tax than the rest of the UK … Because we’re poorer” (http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/northern-ireland/northern-ireland-pays-less-tax-than-rest-of-uk-because-were-poorer-29635519.html) 23% less but we do give more than others through our spending on fuel and tobacco, so are we a complete burden? Well that’s what we’re told and that’s what the figures show. In 2012/13 the identifiable expenditure on public sector services (per head) was in England £8,529, Wales £9,709, Scotland £10,152 and N.Ireland £10,876! (http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/guide-method/compendiums/compendium-of-uk-statistics/economy/index.html) So clearly we need Westminster to fund us, or do we?

I will admit to not being a specialist in economics, but then listening to politicians neither are a lot of them. Yet I have been able to find some figures which could question the argument we get a lot more from Westminster than they get back. From the Exceutives budget report (http://www.northernireland.gov.uk/revised_budget_-_website_version.pdf) for 2011-2015 it shows that 93% was from the Treasury, the famous block grant. This is split into current expenditure covering ongoing costs of providing public services and capital investment covering longer term services. In 2012/13 the current DEL was £9,858.9 million and capital DEL was £858.9 million. In 2013/14 current DEL was £9,927.1 million and capital DEL £780.6. This report also shows each year there is a considerable decrease in the real term % of the grant from 2010/11. Now comes the figures of the taxes we contribute to the Treasury. Looking at ones from HMRC I’m left asking are we really getting more back? Are we really the economic burden we’ve been told we are?

According to a document by HMRC from October 2014 showing the disaggregation of the tax receipts of the UK regions (https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/359890/disag-method.pdf) N.Ireland gives a fair amount back. From the HRMC figures in table 3 we are shown receipts from N.Ireland in 2012/13 of £10,328 million and in 2013/14 £10,670 million. So in 2012/13 the UK Treasury gave us £10,717.8 million but took back £10,328 million and in 2013/14 gave us £10,707.7 million but took back £10,670 million. So arguably it’s only a few hundred million more (yes I know it’s not that easy) the Treasury gives us as a grant than they actually take out so we don’t cost them that much. On a side note the same figures show Scotland give much much more than they get back. In this aspect we may have the answer as to why we don’t have exact figures made readily available by Westminster. They are more worried about the truth concerning Scotland and the momentum it would give their independence campaign than anything concerning N.Ireland but if they give one region accurate figures that’d have to give all them.

Now there is also the issue of two separate currencies, proposed withdrawal of UK from EU, duplication of services etc so much to go into and we hear all the time politicians quoting these issues and the budget all the time. Yet I would question where are the exact figures? Here lies the opportunity for nationalist politicians and parties to make the case for a United Ireland. Use the positions they have to directly question both governments to get all the figures, indeed as a joint collective not on their own. As was mentioned at a talk if SF or SDLP alone made the case people would claim they made the figures up, but if they along with FF, FG, Labour and others got an independent firm to do the research it would give credibility to the figures and argument. The figures I have found convince me the economic case is there and is winnable for a United Ireland, if I’m wrong or there are better figures then I hope people put their points forward. Let’s get the argument going in a productive way where actual figures are used so we can move the argument for a United Ireland forward with substantial evidence it will work. It is time for this great political leadership nationalist parties claim to give to show us in this case, if not then let the people lead the way.