“Cabin fever” they called it in Canada. It was that point nearing the end of a long, cold winter when people began to ache for the outdoor freedom that Spring would bring. In the south of Ireland, cabin fever is gripping commentators and politicians, with Joan Burton saying she is looking forward to the general election “because I actually like to talk to people” and Fine Gael’s Frances Fitzgerald telling eager journalists that “the ball should be thrown in anytime now”.
The newspapers are busy too. Yesterday we had Fintan O’Toole doing his best to bury the Easter Rising under a welter of related matters such as the Great War and poverty in Dublin. Today we have the Indo telling us what most of us know – that polls can be unreliable. The paper was particularly emphatic about Fianna Fail and Sinn Féin. Fianna Fail is repeatedly rated lower in the polls than it in fact achieves in the polling booth; Sinn Féin is regularly over-rated in the polls, dipping in seat achievement when the big day comes.
The Irish Times has a piece by Tim Bale , the man credited with masterminding the return to majority government of David Cameron and the Tory party. Aptly enough, he’s been hired to breathe fresh life into what was once the near-corpse of the Fianna Fail party. He lists “Twelve Steps Back To Power For Fianna Fail” (“Do everything possible, visually and verbally, to signal change”; “Don’t waste time defending your record”). But when you read the article it’s not actually getting the FFers back to power in government; it’s about coming back to a point where they push Sinn Féin into third place.
All of this, of course, could be the press maintaining its unwearying guardianship of the south’s democracy. It could also be part of its decades-long campaign to kill Sinn Féin’s electoral advance, and leave the arena to those respectable parties that’ve been running the southern state so successfully over the last ninety years.
‘Joan Burton saying she is looking forward to the general election “because I actually like to talk to people” ‘
What she actually meant was, ‘I actually like to talk at people’!
Fianna Fáil will improve their lot, probably not in the capital where their only seat at the last GE has been handed to a wee rich boy rather than the candidate last time, a hard working Councillor and working class teacher.
Sinn Fein will probably come out second, imagine, Enda as Taoiseach, Gerry as Tainiste!
paddy power says thats 25/1 agin.get your lot on.
Fear of Sinn Fein is driving them all mad.Advice from the Brits is the last thing Ireland needs.
Sinn Féin are doing pretty well at scuppering their electoral chances north and east of the border with their bizarre and cavalier treatment of possibly thei most popular, congenial and highly effective public representatives, Michelle Gilderenew. What did she do to offend the Politburo/boys’ club?
Have to agree with you there Brian. I actually thought Sinn Fein was smarter than this. The Unionist outreach from Sinn Fein, particularly from Martin McGuinness, that is constantly being unreciprocated is causing a lot frustration amongst some SF voters, with many thinking Marty is behaving like a lapdog. Now I understand SF’s motives for reaching out to Unionists, it has to be done and it shows who wants progress, even if it isn’t reciprocated but there’s only so long this one way street of outreaching can go on until your own voters think you should stop and I think we’re nearing that point. Sinn Fein has to be careful not to go into “Overkill” when it comes to its outreach.
I know many people who have met or know Michelle Gilderenew and all have spoke of her as being such a nice and down to Earth person. She’s also very popular amongst voters in Fermanagh, so I don’t understand why SF haven’t put her up for election for the Assembly. Its a major mistake not to.
I so totally agree with you, Brian. Michelle Gildernew is the sort of reporesentative Sinn Fein needs. What does they think they are about, scuppering a prime candidate?
It appears they were so keen to keep her they threw a couple of extra votes in the pot the first time round (allegedly) at the expense of Flanagan and were then forced to rerun.
No doubt she will be back.
The current administration had a clear political mandate over the past number of years. Voters now have to decide if the mandate was deserved or used in the best interests of the country. Stability is the mantra being chanted in through various media outlets. The cost (6.6 million euro) and outcome of the Oireachtas banking inquiry like the mantra, raises more questions than answers. The acid test for the electorate is whether to maintain allegiance to the gnomes of Zurich or to return an alternative coalition that will govern in the interests of all the people.
God.bless.and.good.luck.to.Sinn.fein.
Your mention today, Esteemed Blogmeister, of ‘the near-corpse of Fianna Fail’ rang a bell. Indeed, almost a knell itself, if not indeed, a very tocsin for the toxic party which has, in a manner of speaking, O.D’d on its own Willie. That would be, of course, the T.D. for Limerick City known as Willie O’D..
Where, one wondered, hung that bell which had newly been rung? Of course, in the venue known as (gulp) The Peacock whose ‘mantel-shelf is ornamented with a wooden inkstand, containing one stump of a pen and half a wafer; a road-book and directory; a county history minus the cover; and the mortal remains of a trout in a glass coffin’.
Not at all an inappropriate symbol , come to think of it, for the Fianna Failures: ‘the moral remains of a trout in a glass coffin’. While the reference to ‘one stump of a pen’ could well symbolize the baleful presence of a storied Tory from the other Tory Island. The rest is elf-explanatory.
The Peacock in this instance is not actually The Peacock, the basement theatre on Abbey Street whose pent-house / panti-hose suite is currently occupied and preoccupied by the Abbesses of the Dworkin Class / A.B. readership of The Unionist Times. Whose non-partisan contribution to the General Election/ 1916 Centenary thingy is a upchucking, oops, upcoming production called ‘Cyprus Avenue’.
This play features a Belfast loyalist ‘who believes his five-week old grand-daughter is The Bogey Man’.
He gasps:
-Gerry Adams (for it is he!) has disguised himself as a newborn baby and successfully infiltrated my family home !’.
While it is understood, alas, that Pearse Brosnan will in all probability be not playing the five-week old grand-daughter (thereby missing out on a chance to simultaneously celebrate the two events, see above) it does give every hint of being a double barrelful of laughs, if the theatrical tagline to be believed at facebook value:
-A look at the (gasp) complexities of modern-day Loyalism.
Eh?
Loyalism and complexities in the one sentence? The most fascinating aspect of what promises to be an intriguing evening’s entertainment will be to see just how the Abbess stretches a two-minute silent sketch into a two-hour talkie.
But, to return to the original Peacock. This is ‘a commercial room’ which provides the setting in a pre-election scene in the picaresque ‘The Pickwick Papers’ . Although published as far back as 1836, in his first novel a youthful Charles Dickens pen-paints a scenario which is an almost uncannily accurate description of the current General Election (yes, Election) in the Free Southern Stateen. (Which has just experienced today an unfortunate if predictable (gasp) spasm of premature e.)
In the novel the electoral process is disguised as a bye-election in the imaginary( !) town of Eatenswill. (Think: south of the Black Sow’s Dyke).
To this woebegone constituency the inquisitive members of the celebrated Pickwick Club hie, in order the better to study the inner workings of democracy, at close quarters, under the bonnet, as it were. The four representatives of this club display their proud membership by wearing its distinctive buttons, on whose brass face is printed its initials: P.C.
(No need to flog this particular hack of the hackitariat).
On arrival in Eatenswill, Samuel Pickwick, Esquire, whose plump appearance bears a remarkable resemblance to an almost newly-retired leporine Labour TD , immediately begins to shout, even before he has descended from the horse-drawn coach. ( As a true would be -embedded editor, he now never travels without his note-book and pencil at the ready).
The coach on stopping had been immediately surrounded by one of the two contending crowds – whether it was the Buffs or the Blues is immaterial (think: FF and FG)- who were shouting their support for their particular candidate. This is when Mr Pickwick formulated his fundamental political philosophy which even that icon of acuity, the retiring leporine Labour TD, could scarcely, erm, trump:
-It is always best of these occasions to do what the mob do.
-But, supposing there are two mobs?
-Shout with the largest !
At this point, Mr. Pickwick is whisked away by the local fixer over whom one shall speedily draw a veil as his name unfortunately happened to be (gasp) Perker.
And cut quickly to the chase in the uber-fabulous frame of, one, Mrs. Leo Hunter (LH).
Again, the two of a kindness which this larger than life fictional character, much given to reciting her own poetry, to dressing up in theatrical costume (see Peacock above) and to the throwing of al fresco fancy dress fete champetre on her extensive lawn, shares with a real, long-standing member of another LH (Leinster House) is more than pass-remarkable.
It is only meet and just then that the last spotlight should fall on this latter real larger than lifer for yesterday she celebrated that corner stone of the female raison d’etre, her birthday. And though that age coincides with (gulp) Retirement Age (it would be ungentlemanly to put it down in indiscreet digital form) luckily the lady in q. is anything but retiring.
She is also, as I happens, a poetess of the parliamentary chamber and is not shy or retiring about reciting same. Again, a trait she shares with the post-dated figure of eight, Mrs. Leo Hunter.
Not for nothing is she known as ‘The Terrific Soporific’ as witnessed by her recitation of her role model’s epic ‘Ode to an Expiring Frog’ which the Yawnaiste (for it is she !) recited under a bonnet (see also above) with such resonance on a raised platform on Leinster Lawn yesterday as the dying hours of the groggy Dail ticked away:
-Can I view thee panting, lying
On thy stomach, without sighing
Can I unmoved watch thee dying
On a log,
Expiring frog ?’
The frog is a creature, as it happens, does really love to dwell in water, Irish Water, the more stagnant the better.
–
If Sinn Fein’s TD count is 25 or more after the election then I think it will be a decent election for them, especially considering the media onslaught going against them over the past few years. I think the magic number for Sinn Fein in the south will be 30 TD’s or more. If they got 30 or more TD’s then it would be a fantastic election for them, it could happen but we’ll just have to wait and see.
When it comes to the Assembly election I don’t think there will be much change. Obviously Martin McGuinness running in Foyle has spiced things up a bit. I think Sinn Fein might gain an MLA or two. I think the DUP will lose some MLA’s to the UUP, Mike Nesbitt’s leadership in my opinion is better than that of Peter Robinsons or Arlene Fosters and would appeal to many DUP voters. Mike only won Fermanagh/South Tyrone back in May due to a low voter turn out amongst nationalists (a growing problem that needs sorted) in F/ST and thanks to the SDLP, yet again, splitting the nationalist vote but SF will win it back in 2020.
From my point of view, I would consider it a great Assembly election if Martin McGuinness gets elected in Foyle and I wouldn’t mind the SDLP even losing a few MLA’s elsewhere either. It is in the best interests of nationalism for the SDLP no longer existing, its only use is as a vote splitter, lets hope Colm Eastwood is its last leader.
[a growing problem that needs sorted]..people have seen enough of ruling by fooling.numbers will continue to fall.
What do you suggest then Billy? I think you said before your one of those who don’t bother to vote. What do you want to see happen in order to get you out the door on polling day and casting your vote, the same vote people who marched from Belfast to Derry got badly beaten for by Unionist mobs but which you couldn’t be bothered to use? What would you do different if you were a political party or a politician?
I’m interested in your views.
i think you said before your one of those who dont bother to vote………
i said i dont vote in british elections,why would i.
billy
Would you vote in a referendum on the constitutional issue, if called by a British Secretary of State?
Not forgetting of course that the Beeb are doing another hatchet job on Slab tonight in their
Spotlight programme. Regarding Fermanagh & S T, there’s more to this than meets the eye.
Remember Dungannon town, one of Sinn Fein’s former power bases, no longer has a SF councillor. Barry Monteith who is a former member usually polls remarkably well in council
elections and could possibly take an assembly seat if push came to shove. There is a lot of
unrest in republican circles in east Tyrone, south Tyrone and south Derry. Sinn Fein will do well to hold on to what they’ve got.
Gildernew’s treatment is pretty shabby on a personal level.
In political terms, it’s even worse. De-selecting a very able politician for someone that I will favourably describe as a school boy politics student is shockingly stupid.
Michael Eden, I have to inform you that you are talking nonsense.Dominic Molloy is a SF councillor for Dungannon town and my own area of South Derry will send Ian Milne back to Stormont with a massive vote.Dissos have attempted to get an electoral foothold in South Derry a couple of times and were humiliated.
Well Barry monteith topped the poll in the last council election if I recall so there must be some unrest.
The narrative of S.F is that they ‘don’t mind if republicans don’t vote for us as long as they don’t vote for anybody else’ I.e they should just stay at home. That was the words that came out of a SF mayors mouth a few years ago. Personally if an independent republican stood for election in my town I would vote for them no problem.