Right – that’s it. The last opinion poll is in, so looking at them all we can conclude decisively where each party stands in the minds and hearts of the electorate. So let’s scrap Friday – it’s enormously expensive holding an election. Let’s just give parties and independents their percentage of representatives in the Dail and get cracking with a fresh government.
You beg to differ? That must be because you don’t trust opinion polls to reflect the reality of voter wishes. And you’d maybe have evidence to support that view, the most obvious being the last British election, where the Tories in the polls were dead certain to be forced into coalition and in the end wound up with a majority government.
It would be safe to say that one party in particular has been the object of media attention during this election. No party escaped whacks but Sinn Féin was ahead in that class. So why? Why did the media keep taking lumps out of Sinn Féin in particular? Well, either they had the welfare of the state in mind and saw Sinn Féin as a danger to that welfare. Alternatively, they may have feared the altering of traditional politics in the south, and particularly a change wrought by a party with a Northern leader.
Will the media antipathy work? Will showing Concerned Citizens fuming on Grafton Street about the welfare of poor and middle-class people if Sinn Féin has its way – will that push down the Sinn Féin vote? Will the refusal of RTÉ to correct its Concerned Citizen report and make it a wealthy CEO report damage the republican vote? Will the emphasis of RTÉ – which I’m listening to right now – on quizzing Sinn Féin about events forty years ago do the required damage?
It might. Or maybe this time out social media could provide a counter-weight and help people make more reasoned choices. One of the things that Sinn Féin has suffered from in the past is that while it did well on first preference votes, it tended to be transfer toxic. There is a considerable chance that this election will change that. The Right2Change group has over one hundred candidates in the election and they have agreed to use their number two choices to support each other. That could – if it happens – considerably enhance Sinn Féin’s performance in this election.
But there is one core element which must be satisfied if such an enhanced performance is to happen: people must VOTE. If they don’t, if they sit at home yawning or head for the pub, they will have passed control of their future into the hands of those who may have little concern for their welfare.
Footnote: an RTÉ radio interview with Gerry Adams has just ended. In his last sentence, Mr Adams managed to slide in a reminder that the man who heckled Mary Lou McDonald on Grafton Street on behalf of “poor and middle-class people” was in fact the CEO of a financial institution. My only regret is that he didn’t add a parting question: why hasn’t RTÉ corrected a misleading report?
It is evident that at least one commentator on RTÉ today cares little about legacy issues or due process and please, do not mention bombs in Belturbet, Monaghan or Dublin. Strenuous efforts are being made to deal with legacy issues in Ireland, however, the British government continues to resist international legal input as a means of dealing with its dirty war in Ireland.
RTÉ remains highly selective about naming specific individuals, and there appears to be little inclination to deal with the legacy of Fine Gael and the Irish Labour Party. One can only hope that voters accused of being “whingers” by An Taoiseach will, as concerned citizens, use their votes to register a legitimate assessment of the previous administration’s performance, irrespective of the weather conditions on 26 February 2016.
Red C poll carried out from London. One interviewee was asked about your lady prime minister “EDNA Kenny” another was asked about “trucker” meaning “Trocaire” and so on.
Red C poll carried out from London? I’m not surprised if true. In fact I suspect some of the worst and most hostile anti-SF journalists/media people collect their wages from London. Maybe even some southern politicians do too, who knows?…..
Things could go either way Jude but one thing has to happen from now on.SF need to take the gloves off and drop the”mister nice guy when being interviewed by hostile journalists.Many of these journalists have held paid roles in establishment parties and the host of tomorrow nights debate has a brother standing for FF Some others have had penalty points cancelled by the Gardai and one media mogul is currently being investigated by the criminal assets agency.People respect those who hit back.I remember John Hume once removing his microphone and storming out of a northern studio and it did’nt do him the slightest bit of harm.
Have to agree Michael. In an interview today on LMFM, Gerry Adams was on With Regina Doherty TD. Gerry was explaining that 3 people had been killed in their constituency office.
Regina replied it had all been brought on by themselves. Apart from Gerry saying “”that’s terrible” he continued to let her speak. It can be heard on RTERadio one, News at one at about 10.55 in (sorry can’t do links). Haven’t even seen it on twitter apart from one sinn feiner (that may have changed from Today). i’m livid, can you imagine anyone in Sinn Fein saying this?
I always thought that polling was a science in itself. Mathematician types sat down and looked at the socio-demographics and from that a targetted sample was taken.
The latest IT poll seems to be based on random stops and questions posed on 5 streets somewhere.
It doesn’t seem very sound in its methodology.
I may be wrong but there’s no way SF are on 15%. I think a big effort is being made to convince people that a FG/FF coalition is inevitable.
http://www.thejournal.ie/poll-sinn-fein-down-fianna-fail-up-2616602-Feb2016/
If ever you needed another example, quickly scroll down to the last sentence in this article. Its alive and kicking, Jude!!
Whatever happens on Friday, this election has seen Sinn Fein become firmly established in Irish politics in the 26. That in itself is a huge achievement when you consider where they were 10 or 20 years ago. Moreso when you consider the INM onslaughts and RTE eh, lack of balance. SF may have come as far as they can with GA at the helm, they may not have. None of us really know.
Politics is changing. Media is changing. Ireland is changing. We’re in a kind of liminal period now I think, and I’m not sure that anyone can predict where things will go from here. It’s nothing if not interesting…
The actual identity of the All-Switzerland champion whinger at the top of Grafton Street, Esteemed Blogmeister, remains obfuscated in the fog of the Fourth Estate. Most particularly that shrouded part of the miasma media where the peasouper stars expand into financial obesity: RTE.
Funnily enough, CEO is the Leprechaun for (gulp) FOG.
-Fair is foul and foul is fair/ Hover through the fog and filthy airwaves.
You mentioned the latest edition of the Woodchoppers’ Ball aka Morning Ireland in which Gerry Adams was grilled by the no-frills Woodman (for it was he !). This interrogation, oops, interview was bracketed and whacketed by the names of the ironically baptised Austin Stack and Slab Murphy, upon whom it is mandatory that tabs be kept. And at which the cabinetmakers of RTE are a dab hand.
Axe -wielders and cabinetmakers alike both deal in the same material, wood. And even funnier still, a memorable movie in the horror genre called ‘The Fog’ was artily crafted by the all-thrills director, John Carpenter. That was in 1980.
Although this frightening fillum is ostensibly located in the small coastal town of Antonio Bay in California it could well serve as a metaphor for the Free Southern Stateen. What else is a metaphor? Or, indeed, for that matter, a Califor?
Consider the following: the narrative contains a clipper full of political lepers who were lured into liquidation (alleged) in the swirling fog even as they sailed to establish a more benign settlement. This shoreline subterfuge was designed to decoy them on to the rocks of RTE, those slimy rocks encrusted by the seaweed of shoneenism, not to mention the algae of Anglo-Irishry.
This was achieved by the lighting of a duplicitous campfire on the shoreline; a campy thing to do by the founding fathers of the town of Antonio Bay a hundred years previously. With the aim of diverting the moolah of the clipper’s skipper into their own ATM. Which of course/ ar ndoigh is an anachronistic acronym of Acting the Maggot.
The events of ‘The Fog’, not unlike, the Free Southern Stateteen occur during the course of a pivotal centenary. And the sinister similarities do not end there: the character in the fillum who reveals the devious doings of the years of yore is one, (gulp) Fr. Malone by his uncovering the diary of a founding father. Thus, at the high end of Grafton Street one finds slimy seaweed and algae while at the full bottom end of the same Grafton Street one chances upon the cockles and mussels of (gasp) Molly Malone.
And there are still folk out there still naïve to wonder at the piscatorial pong which reeks from the RTE coverage. Time to smell the offal. For example:
-His wounds are covered with algae, his lungs are full, there’s silt under his fingernails.
And that’s one of the milder criticisms made of G. Adams in the neutral, purchased press.
–
Watch the victims of this despicable duplication rise from the depths of the sunken censorship to claim retribution.
Small surprise that the Fog Oak Monolith have adopted the following campaign motto;
-Tiocfaidh ar La Seaca, Ceo Meala !
–
It is about time SF threw some mud back in the opposite direction such as all the brown envelopes that top people in Fianna Fail seem to have been in the habit of receiving over the years.
Or the ignoring of the massive abuse scandals that Labour, Fine Gael and Fianna Fail turned a blind eye to, as well as the facilitating of the American rendition flights in Shannon airport therefore being complicit in torture.
I’d skip the mud, BD. Getting off the couch and down to the polling station is the only worthwhile response.
Jude
A quick look back at your postings for February shows a dozen or so on the media and how they have mistreated poor old Sinn Fein. I couldn’t see any on Sinn Fein’s actual policies.
I am not sure how well this constant moping will go down with those considering their transfers!
Don’t you worry your pretty little head about transfers, gio. I think the role of the media is crucial in any democracy. As I have said repeatedly, it’s obvious that the media in the south are strongly and frankly anti-SF. That’s wrong. SF like every other party should be criticised where there are grounds for criticism, and so should every other party. But that ain’t the case. One example: in an interview on RTE radio this morning with GA – which began and ended with extended reference to events that occurred during the Troubles – roughly 35 years ago. I mean – can you imagine a party in Britain or the US being constantly queries on events decades ago? And I see in the Indo since then that the writer says GA ‘lost his cool’ and muttered ‘Sweet Jesus’. I heard the interview: GA was asked would he continue as leader of SF after the election, to which he replied “One day at a time, Sweet Jesus”. The Jesus bit was as clear and distinct as any other part; and as the Indo hack well knew, that’s a version of a line from a C & W song. That’s impartial reporting? Not mentioning the Grafton Street financier story – the crucial element of this being a very rich man was never included by RTE, even after that element had been everywhere in the social media. So, gio, that’s my interest: how does a properly functioning media operate politically. As it operates in the south right now, it’s verging on shameful.
Jude
You are absolutely entitled to write about what interests you of course.
I can only say it appears, well, a bit mopish in the sheer volume of posts, and I notice it replicated in other sites too.
We all tend to avoid the moaning auntie who always has an ailment to top everyone elses.
.I’m not trying to have a wee dig at you in saying that. If that is how you see things that is fair enough.
But nothing on policies?
Well, if people – including yourself – want to avoid me, that’s their choice. I don’t do internment.Policy is being paraded on the media from morning to night; media bias is not. And I frankly don’t give a damn if somebody considers me a mope (stupid, blame-the-victim line at the best of times) – I think a fair media is absolutely central to a half-democratic state. As to policies – SF says they’ll tax people over €100K more than those below; that it will address homelessness and hospital chaos, and it bases its calculations on government figures. Sounds pretty good to me. Odd that the media keep talking about 35 years ago and, when talking about policies, doing the pub-quiz thing. Although that depends on who they’re interviewing. Enda Kenny was on with Dobson tonight on RTÉ and Dobson asked him three times what would the difference be in government spending capacity if the economy grew at two-and-a-half per cent instead of the projected three-and-a-half per cent. Enda flanneled about going forward and finishing the job and dumpity-dum – and Dobson let it go.Nice.
Jude
I am not suggesting people would or should avoid you, don’t worry your pretty little head about that!
I am suggesting the constant emphasis on claims of unfair treatment by the media may put voters off Sinn Fein to some degree.
I think it is a tactical error.
You may be right. There are people who would face anything rather than the truth.
“I am suggesting the constant emphasis on claims of unfair treatment by the media may put voters off Sinn Fein to some degree.
I think it is a tactical error.”
I would say that Sinn Fein’s policies are actually much better than I expected and would have the most direct benefit for the people earning up to 70K euro which is the vast majority.
The FG promises to replace USC over 5 years means there will be no immediate benefits (you can be sure it will be year 5) over burning issues such as water charges which thousands of people have failed to pay and will end up with criminal charges if FG get back in. Sinn Fein have promised to scrap them, they should also pay back every penny that was paid throughout the country and drop all debts for unpaid fees. I have not heard this but I would like to see it happen.
Housing has been a terrible embarrassment for them and every party has promised to address this, though I doubt the people of Dublin will forget quickly who allowed it to happen in the first place.
Jobs, again, the centre right parties are looking towards corporates to keep the jobs going down, but to do this the lower paid pay the heftier tax burden spread over the majority which are low paid workers.
That certainly works and we cannot afford to ignore the benefits from corporates, but I am relieved that Sinn Feins policies do not impact on entrepreneurs, self employed and small businesses who and are actually the fairest tax policies I have seen in both these islands.
What I will say is their honest approach to coming up with a good strategy and manifesto, they are relying heavily on the people understanding it and the difference in what the more established parties are saying. FG and FF are the better wordsmiths and at selling a fudge and unfortunately until there are more of the calibre of Mary Lou in promoting good policies, it looks like what is actually beast for the people may not come to fruition.
Show me any economist who will deny that Sinn Feins policies will have the quickest return and offer the bigger financial returns for the majority of people over the first few years after this election.
Perhaps that is why the media are not focussing on policies but instead using every dirty tactic in the book and then some.
Which of the parties policies do you think offers the best deal for the vast majority of the Irish people gio?
We have spoken about polls a few times before and my opinion on them is still the same. In many cases they are roughly accurate but again in many cases they are not. I also think polls can mislead people too. Others may or may not agree with me but maybe someone who is so Anti-FG/LAB and cant wait to see the back of them is willing to vote the party most likely to do the best in removing the coalition. So, for example, last week when SF was on 20% on one poll, it would’ve made sense to vote SF because many others were planning to too. But this week where SF are on 15% and Fianna Fail are on 20%, by the same logic FF should get the vote. So the polls may be determining (or at least influencing) where a chunk of the electorate will vote. That’s my theory anyway.
The behaviour of RTE in the past 7 days has been nothing short of a disgrace, even by their standards. The Late Late Show on Friday night saw vicious attacks on Sinn Fein. I didn’t see the footage yet myself but apparently a journalist on the show said anyone who votes SF are “drug dealers, criminals and terrorists”. If true, that just shows the fear amongst the elite in the south. Then we have Fergus Crawford, a rich banker, pretending to be a “small business owner” and a “concerned citizen” whose “feeling is in his pocket”. I mean, for a banker of his calibre to actually come out onto the streets and try to make a scene for RTE news (which he failed to do, hence why RTE cut out Mary Lou’s reaction) just shows the desperation and fear. As Jude mentioned, RTE has yet to reveal the truth about Fergus Crawford.
It was good that Gerry Adams got the truth aired about Fergus Crawford on radio (social media has played its part too) but I suspect Gerry is going to go out all guns blazing (no pun intended….) on Fergus Crawford and RTE’s disgraceful behaviour on the last Live Leaders debate on Tuesday. Suspect more dirty tricks and ambushes from RTE and those on the panel and maybe even Miriam herself.
(PS: Going by the polls, the Labour party is as low as 4% but poor Joan says she will fight on……Joan’s struggle is comparable to a woman up to her neck in quick sand with a concrete block on her head……the only way is down)
Ryan I watched that programme on Friday night. It was an absolute disgrace, the journalist was allowed to say what he said with total impunity with regards to SF. This would have been bad enough in the normal course of things but on the run-up to an election it was scandalous. For views like that to be expounded without challenge or balance on a primetime TV show on the run-up to an election shows RTE for the inherent bias that it displays on a daily basis. The real pity is that bloggers like GIO who in my opinion are at core very decent, cannot lift the bias from their own eyes and see what is going on here for what it really is. For the future let us state categorically that RTE is not the Fourth estate but the mouthpiece of the Establishment.
Michael
I have said before that I don’t now if there is a media bias or not against Sinn Fein.
There might be, I am waiting for Jude or someone to do a bit of research and produce some hard evidence.
That evidence should be laid before the Broadcasting Authority.
(In the last election the evidence showed that SF got more than their share of coverage I believe,but no doubt that is all part of the conspiracy.)
Certainly SF supporters are convinced about this bias, I accept that.
My point is in the end it is counterproductive to keep going on about it.
Suck it up and get over it.
As long as Gerry is in charge the media will challenge him about his past.
If they want to continue to grow in the South it is my view that he needs to step aside, and I have no doubt he will do so fairly soon.
Some modest gains this time followed by a last hurrah for the Centenary and that will do Gerry, that will do.
“Suck it up and get over it.” Now there’s an original solution to media bias.
Jude
I guess you overlooked the bit where I said evidence should be presented to the Broadcasting Authority?
Another example of seeing what you want to see.
So you believe the southern media have been even-handed in this election?
“Certainly SF supporters are convinced about this bias, I accept that.
My point is in the end it is counterproductive to keep going on about it.
Suck it up and get over it.”
I disagree gio.
I don’t want to live in a country where the media or the state abuse their power, and Ireland is as much my country as any other Irish citizen on this island.
If Gerry is bringing out the true colours of those in control of state and its media, then it is up to the people to put things right, not for intolerance and abusiveness to be rewarded by him stepping aside while still so popular.
There is plenty of evidence of his popularity, perhaps it is you and his detractors who should it up and get over it.
Great story.jude.
Sure.Is.Jim.
I.will.be.keeping. a.Leary. Eye.on.this.I have.the.total.confidence. of.Mrs.C.
The.present.Mrs.C.you.mean.Michael.
why say people who are using their right not to vote must vote sounds a bit harsh.
looking on social media i see loads of comments why vote for more of the same.
If you don’t vote, billy, you’re passing your vote to people that do. In other words, you eat the dish they serve up to you. I’d rather have some say in what dish I had to spoon into my face…Even if it was to vote for the least unworthwhile party.
Jude,have a look at what FG’s Regina Doherty had to say to Adams during a radio interview on LMFM today.
I heard it – three people killed in his constituency office and it was their own fault…Cheesh.
BTW it’s not only RTE and the Indo showing their bias, a thread was started on Politics.ie
regarding Regina Doherty’s comments no sooner was it up, a mod took exception and took it down, it was promptly opened in the NI section under “That didn’t take long, did it?
I missed the start of the rte/Facebook election debate last nite but I swear I spotted Mary travers amongst the audience. From what I saw she wasn’t given an opportunity to speak so perhaps rte placed her there just as a reminder to the electorate if you know what I mean?
I am finding the election fascinating and educational. It’s very telling how the establishment traditional political foes I.eFG,FF Labour etc manage to band together, a bit like the Scottish independence poll, and bury their differences to try and halt anything upsetting the political set up there, in this case a new party getting into govt.
Or how about this on politics.ie -” FG td questioned about theft of opponents election material.”
To what extent has british intelligence agencies recruited people in positions of power and influence in the Rep of Ireland?
“To what extent has british intelligence agencies recruited people in positions of power and influence in the Rep of Ireland?”
I wouldn’t call it recruitment, but london has put billions into the irish economy through deals with Fine Gaels sister party the conservatives.
So what did they get?
We know that gardai stations were bugged by the same people MI5 use to install bugging equipment in the UK with the approval and knowledge of FG.
We know that FG ministers let slip information in Dail that could only have been found from bugging of councillors such as mick wallace phone some years back.
I don’t find it hard to believe that MI5 have full and direct access to all gardai station, GSOC and mobile phone networks and that Fine Gael are in their back pockets and in cahoots with them.
I also dont believe that Ireland suddenly over the last 5 years or on its own terms turned into a raving looney nation with sickening levels of direct and deliberate media propaganda manipulation.
Speculation of course, you will need to make your own mind up.