If you watched the 15-minute video of the Periscope interview about BREXIT I did with Danny Morrison (I finally managed to post it successfully), you’ve probably got your own ideas about what he said that was important and what wasn’t. Thinking back on it overnight, and poised as we are on the edge of what could radically change our political future, here are five points which Danny raised which bear further thought.
1. He said that he expected a low turn-out – less than 50% – here, while in Britain it would be much higher. That surprised me – the low turn-out here bit, I mean. Such has been the never-ending series of programmes on TV about BREXIT and the passion displayed, I assumed we’d feel the same sort of passion. But as I remember, Morrison said that he had one flyer pushed through his door in the course of the campaign and that he had no one canvassing on his door-step. Very unusual, given the importance of tomorrow’s vote. And I realised that I’d had nothing through my letter-box other than the British government’s information leaflet urging Remain, and no canvassers. Will that matter? Will the fact that EVERYONE must know there’s a referendum tomorrow mean low turn-out here tomorrow? I’m not so sure.
2. He said that if BREXIT wins the referendum, the border would be strengthened. No debate there – I think we’ve all accepted that. But he went further and said that customs posts could be a target for those intent on violence – dissident republicans, in other words. Funny, I hadn’t thought of that. And then I remembered the futile IRA campaign of the 1950s and early 1960s, and of course customs posts were very frequently their target. There’d also be the question of border controls on trade – bound to be bad – and the sense of resentment that will develop for many nationalists and republicans when they’re asked for their passport in order to travel from one part of Ireland to another. Danny Morrison says he’ll simply refuse to show his passport. Will you?
3. He suggested that the death of Jo Cox MP may not have a major impact on how people vote. Had the killing happened on the eve of polling, he believes it might have been influential, but that is less likely, given that over a week will have passed. I’m not so sure. Jo Cox’s husband Brendan was on TV yesterday, and as well as being very moving, he stated his belief that his wife died because of her political views – and that she was a passionate Remain advocate. The cruelty of her killing will be hard for anyone to forget for a long time.
4. I mentioned the possibility, if the vote was for BREXIT, that Britain would respond by concentrating, not on the border between the south and north of Ireland (too porous, too difficult to man), but on Britain’s ports and airports. Danny mentioned something I hadn’t thought of: the irritation of unionists at being asked to produce their passport and submit to searches to enter what they see as their own country. So BREXIT border controls will anger nationalists and republicans, in the locally-manned border between Ireland north and south, and it’ll anger unionists in that they’ll be treated as paddies even though they’re merely moving, as they’d see it, from one part of their country to another.
5. He said that he thought, all things considered, BREXIT would win the day. He seemed to feel that the mirage of a restoration of the great in Great Britain would be attractive for the majority, despite the obvious economic and political dangers. That was what motivates the DUP, he believes: that it would make the border between the north and south of Ireland more visible and concrete, and that it would emphasise the importance of being part of an enhanced Great Britishness.
I think of all the things he said, Danny’s guess that BREXIT would succeed was the most alarming. If it does, we’re on our way to increased conflict, which may not stop at the level of debate. I don’t think BREXIT will happen, but then I’m maybe like Julius Caesar, who contended that “men readily believe that which they desire”. I hope Julius Caesar and Danny Morrison have got it wrong this time.
It is not really in our hands Jude, it will be down to as always what a majority in England wants.
People like myself who doesn’t want to be part of the EU, but only wants to be part of Ireland which I consider my own country.
What is in it for me either way?
I have decided to vote leave, I may not have any choice in being part of Ireland, but it is an opportunity to get one step closer to getting the hell out of Europe.
I will be voting in this British election and I will be voting to leave. I will ‘play the game’ and simply cast my vote against the establishment(British and Irish) never mind all the other issues.
However I agree with truthrevisionist; the establishment will not let a leave vote happen. There will be plenty of postal votes cast cough cough.
Ah Wt – another young + cynical like tr…You don’t really believe that the ballots are rigged and that’s what’ll give the remain camp a victory?
There’s more than one way to skin a cat Jude. They fiddle the expenses,taxes etc. What makes you think they wouldn’t fiddle elections?
http://www.nickdavies.net/1994/10/01/how-to-fiddle-an-election/comment-page-1/#comment-6
P.s I also should’ve said they — — too!
– No you shouldn’t WT.
I’m tempted to say I’m a trusting soul. But maybe I just want evidence of what is claimed. Innocent until proved guilty and all that…
They thrive on ‘trusting souls’ Jude.
That,s how parasites work.
Wolf tone is one of the few on this site who sees the ‘bigger picture’.
Facts:
George w Bush 2000 election results rigged by his brother in Florida and his mate who manufactured the voting machines. Gore presidency -stolen.
2004 same ‘gangster’ tactics to beat his ‘mate’ Kerry ! Some contest eh !!
( see http://www.michaelparenti.org/stolenelections.html)
Irish votes in the NICE treaty 2001 Irish people totallyrejected it
2002 disgracefully forced through on a beleaguered electorate. till they got the result they wanted.
Polls wrong in Scottish referendum – they got the result they wanted.
Polls wrong in general election – they got the result they wanted.
and on and on it goes…….
And the ‘sheeple’ keep on lining up to cast their ‘democratic vote’
Sufferin’ bejasus, is WT the only one who gets it !!
Ah now tr – aisy there… I agree with you on the first three. Not sure what ‘polls wrong’ has to do with hoodwinking the public in four and five: so the pollsters were off but the people voted as they chose. Are you saying return figures were rigged? If so, you’d need evidence.
I agree that the people at the top are capable of damn’ near everything – but I’d need evidence of them having done particular things.
‘I’d agree that the people at the top are capable of damn’ near everything’
Nuff said, Jude.
Welcome onboard !
tr – I was here before you got out of the cradle…
tr
Do you think all elections in modern times in the west have been rigged by the establishment, or is it just the ones whose outcome you do not like?
Do you also think the same about Russian elections say, or is it just the west?
Is it the illuminati? I bet it’s those pesky illuminati.
Gio,
No I don’t think I ever remember saying that I thought that all elections in modern times in the west were rigged.
I do however know that Stalin once said :
“Those who vote ,decide nothing. Those who count the vote, decide everything”
From my recollection now, I don’t think it was the ‘illuminati’ who put him in power.
I think it might have been those ‘pesky’ jewish Bolsheviks who slaughtered 40 million Russians during the ‘Red Terror’.
Bet they didn’t tell you that in your history class Gio !!
Jude,
No you wern’t.
Like many of your generation you’ll probably never come onboard because you haven’t taken the time to do the research.
Thirty years I’ve been at this. And I still don’t know all the answers.
But I’ve connected a lot of dots………….
Mark Twain nailed it when he said ” its easier to lie to people,- than to tell them they’ve been lied to”
You’re a ‘trusting soul’ Jude.
They like that.
My trusty soul remark was …ironic. Ten smiley faces. Don’t assume that you know truths that others have never thought of. And don’t assume that a cynical edge doesn’t exact a price in terms of understanding.
tr
I know you didn’t say that which is why I asked for clarification. Do you think they are all rigged or not?
And you did not say if you believe in the illuminati or not I note.
I like a good conspiracy theory as much as the next man but there is a whiff of anti-semitism all over your posts, and I use anti-semitism in the commonly accepted way referring to Jews rather than the wider meaning.
he is right about one thing , if Brexit is the winner and the border in reinstated then nothing can be surer that the gfa is then dead in the water as the British will have broken an international treaty between the people of Ireland and the British , and don’t expect the free state of Kenny or Martin raise a fuss about it as they will just blame the EU
it will also open the door to the dissidents to raise their game including violence , but i suppose the British feel that they can handle that , but i would wonder about that ,me thinks back to 1919 when the British trampled on the wishes of the Irish people !!!
I think you’ve just about nailed it, philip…
Remain has majority support in Scotland but I am constantly surprised by the numbers who want to LEAVE. A UK LEAVE vote would not automatically trigger a second Scottish Referendum because other factors intrude, particularly the low returns on oil. I imagine that the majority in the 6 Counties support REMAIN. Should Cameron win, it must have implications for the political credibility of DUP, I assume.
John I would agree with you that the majority in the 6 Counties support remain but there are a number of critical factors at work which might ameliorate the situation of the disaffected leave people.
The dynamics of the voter profiles being one:-
Brexiters tend to have an older age profile which have higher turn outs at the polls.
Brexiters tend to have a much higher representation of Loyalist/ unionists in their support which have higher turn outs at the polls.
Brexiters have something to prove and have a much higher motivation to go out and vote.
I know plenty of people who are pro EU who will probably not get off their arse to vote on Thursday and wouldn’t even see the irony if they complain about new restrictions should the UK vote to leave.
Danny is right, how many people were canvassed here about the referendum?
I think turn out will be low and I think the vote will be much closer here than original polls would have suggested for the North.
I think once again the lethargic youth could well have their futures frittered away by selfish, right-wing, baby-boomers in the South East of England reminiscing the heady days of Empire when they could tell the Krauts, Frogs and other continentals exactly how little they value them or their opinion!
The bookies do not think he is right. They are giving odds around 1-4 on remain.
I think they will be proved right.
Agus mé fhéin …
If the vote was only conducted in the north I think Brexit would happen.
However it’s not. The remain campaign will win.
I’m sure if this for 2 reasons.
People don’t like change.
The bookies are rarely wrong in this type of thing.
Odd for remaining have went from 1/2 a few days ago to 1/4 today.
There will be at least a 55/45 swing.
There’s Sinn Fein, Esteemed Blogmeister, and then there’s Frank Feighan.
Who he ? one hears you say.
Well, he’s a newly unelected member of the Southern Irish Senate (SIS), having been one of Prime Minister Kenny’s recent appointees. Before this he was an elected M.P. for the Roscommon constituency but opted not to stand for the Southern Irish Parliament last time out.
This decision to stand down puzzled some (i.e. those who had actually heard of him before this) but may well have had something to do with his fianna-like failure to honour a pre-election pledge he had made to oppose the downgrading of Roscommon County Hospital.
Seems like some folk who had voted for him appeared to , erm, boil over. And turned so shirty at the blue shirted MP of the Party of Probity, even unto hissing pointedly in the general and particular direction alike of his constituency office in Boyle, County Roscommon.
This could well be a variation of Boyle’s Law which is all to do with gas, volume, and the increase thereof, that sorta thingy.
Suddenly, now that he has been gifted a chance to park his rear in the Senate there has been a noticeable pumping up of the volume. Take his, erm, maiden speech yesterday.
Eist le seo / Hark and let no dog bark:
-Among the Commonwealth’s many noble objectives is the protection of democracy, rule of law, human rights, good governance and social and economic development’.
Eh ?
‘Yes, there will be detractors from obvious quarters about the notion of re-joining the Commonwealth but would such a move not fit perfectly with the new era of political and religious tolerance in our islands’.
(His hour – and our ‘our’ (cf islands) have obviously come, and together too).
Ah, so this is the nub of the matter. Whereas the political traffic has all been one-way in recent times, i.e. coming out the closet, Senator Feighan has heroically opted instead for the opposite direction and – enter the World-wide Walk-in Wardrobe that is the Commonwealth (British, incidentally).
Hmmm.
What on planet earth can be going down here at all, at all ?
Perhaps the clue lies in the difference between an Ah and an Eeh, the difference between an Appointed rather than an Elected Senator.
Could Caligula Kenny have (gasp) appointed a Trojan horse to do his, erm, neigh-saying for him? While the Provincial PM himself was on the Mainland (see ‘ the new era of political and religious tolerance in our islands’ above).
Consider the timing: could Caligula Kenny be covering all bases and making sure that there is an alternative exit route for the Province in the (gulp) event of Brexit scoring an overwhelming 1-0 victory ? A variation, perhaps, of the Stephen Leacock strategy of ‘galloping madly off in all directions’?
Newly appointed stablehand F. Feighan finally goes into full court press mode:
‘Would rejoining the Commonwealth not help further develop a pluralist Ireland where all our different identities are always recognized and respected?’.
Thus while youse up there in Norneverland, EB, are preoccupied with Brexit, right now down here in the Free Southern Stateen we are preoccupied with a different Tom Kettle of fish entirely:
-Frentry.
Into the Commonstealth (British), of course.
–
I will be voting to remain, I would rather be ruled from Brussels than from London. The likes of Jim Allister and Ian Paisley have short memories, they owe a lot thanks to their connections with the EU, God alone knows how much went into their family bank accounts because of having a MEP in the house. Sammy Wilson was fond enough of Europe when he was running around France in the buff. As for the free staters and any ripping up of the GFA, they do not give a flying fig.
Jude
An observation :
Jo Cox ‘celebrations’ of her life taking place in Londons’ Trafalgar Square and West Yorkshire as I write.
Mass double live TV coverage Sky News BBC ITV – C4 highlights tonite.
Not one mention of her support for the dispossessed people of Palestine.
Watch how quick she’s forgotten after tomorrows vote.
And then ask yourselves how you can swallow this farce.
I accept that completely – the media focuses on a suitable target, then leaves and moves to the next. And if she was a supporter of Palestine, I’ve no doubt that was shoved under the table. I don’t swallow any of that. I know it’s there – it’s up to people who care to use whatever means to present a counter-narrative, as they now call it. What do you think this blogsite is about?
To those with an ear untuned to unionist sensitivities (which includes many unionists who think that the Belfast Agreement has secured Northern Ireland’s position within the UK), I can understand it when they think that “if BREXIT wins the referendum, the border would be strengthened.”
But, you should relax, it won’t be – it is almost impossible to monitor a land border as complex as that between Northern Ireland and the Republic, and given the degree of economic and cultural harmonisation which has taken place over the last 20 years or so, London will have no appetite for it – which might explain the following statements. Any nation which had any degree of interest in any part of that nation would not say:
“Therefore you can only either have new border controls between the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland, or, which I would regret hugely, you would have to have some sort of checks on people as they left Belfast or other parts of Northern Ireland to come to the rest of UK.
David Cameron, June 2016
“This is as evident here as anywhere. The border is of the merest consequence. And Co Donegal, Co Derry or Londonderry and Co Tyrone operate as a single economic entity to the great benefit of their inhabitants.”
Prince Charles, May 2016
All Nationalist Ireland needs is a little patience. I fully expect a United Ireland in my lifetime – what form it will take is beyond my ability to predict.
“All Nationalist Ireland needs is a little patience. I fully expect a United Ireland in my lifetime – what form it will take is beyond my ability to predict”
100% agree with you PF.
Indeed some would argue that peace has brought the prospect of Irish Unity far closer than violence ever could. That’s something dissidents just cant understand. Many of them are just wedded to Republican violence but politics/war is like a game of Chess, it takes time, you have to plan your moves and make sacrifices in order to ultimately win.
Peace has been bad in many ways for Unionism (because they are making it so) because they no longer have an excuse to reject equality with Catholics. They have to make compromises or they will simply lose out even more. Unionists say that the Union is secure but that wasn’t what political Unionism ultimately wanted, they wanted a Protestant State where they ruled. That state really is a pipe dream now, it may rear its ugly head in local run Unionist councils but again that only damages Unionism in the long run when the people they are being unfair to are becoming the majority and wouldn’t even phantom casting a vote for a Unionist party.
Irish Unity really is a question of When, not if. My opinion? Could possibly be within next few years if things go rightly with the Brexit vote. Generally? I would give it a decade, 2 decades max.
Jude, I watched the interview and I disagreed with most of what Danny said. Don’t get me wrong, I respect Danny and his opinion but I simply don’t agree, for a number of reasons.
Will there be border/customs posts at the border like in the 1950’s? No, for a number of reasons. The border in the 1950’s was very different to what it is like today. Back then there was a lot of Unionists along the border, they were often the ones manning the posts. Today 99% of the population along the border is Catholic/Republican according to one statistic I read, Susan McKay also says the same in her book and that was in the late 1990’s.
If Customs posts/border patrols go up along the border the people/soldiers manning them will be sitting ducks, they will be targeted by dissidents, who could easily use snipers to take out targets. Not to mention the border has many different main roads, side roads, country roads, etc They all cant possibly be manned and watched. There’s also peoples homes on the border itself too.
————————————————————————————————————————-
The British Government has already mentioned that they would be asking people from the North to produce their passports if they are crossing into Britain. They would have to do this, how else could they secure their borders? Whether this bother’s Unionists or not is irrelevant. There’s many things Westminster has forced Unionists to put up with despite vicious and powerful opposition, such as the Anglo-Irish Agreement in the 1980’s, the current Stormont set up where Unionists have to share power with people they despise, etc Indeed one commentator said one reason why Westminster held out in favour of the AI Agreement in the 80’s was to “show Unionists that Westminster is greater than them, regardless of how strong their opposition is”. Unionists will have to accept showing their passport when crossing into Britain.
It was on the front page of the Belfast Telegraph today that if NI leaves the EU then 37,000 jobs could be lost or scared away. I believe that 100%. England will be better off economically outside the EU but NI certainly wont be and there’s not a chance of any extra funding or any EU funding being replaced by Westminster if there is a Brexit, even Theresa Villiers confirmed this and she supports Brexit! (She cares so much about us, doesn’t she?…..) As if leaving the EU wasn’t bad enough for the North, any hardening of the border will devastate cross border trade and money from the South that sustains thousands of jobs will simply dry up.
Will a Brexit make Scottish Independence/Irish Unity more likely? Of course it will, as long as the majority in the North/Scotland want to remain in the EU, which is certainly the case. If there is a Brexit, which I think there will be, then expect another Scottish Indy Referendum and a border poll for Irish Unity within a year or so. According to previous polls the appetite for Irish Unity is low in the North but expect that to change dramatically when its clear the North loses jobs/billions by being outside the EU and the only way to stay in is to join with the South. Of course most of those championing Irish Unity will be Catholics and Pro-EU/Liberal young Protestants.
Putting Irish Unity/Scottish Independence aside, the UK is becoming more of a federation, its getting weaker, not stronger, as a whole. Enoch Powell said the only way to keep NI in the Union was for Stormont to go and to be run directly from Westminster. That option is completely off the table now days, its the “nuclear option” now.
Irish Economist David McWilliams said the DUP could be “signing their own death warrant” by backing Brexit. I 100% agree with him. Unionists backing Brexit is like Turkey’s voting for Christmas…..
PS: Forgot to mention if there is a Brexit then the Good Friday Agreement will be invalid. Chris Donnelly said there will need to be a new major agreement. The difference will be that Republicans are far stronger politically today than we were in 1998, so a new agreement could achieve far more than the GFA.
(Sorry for the long post)
No need for sorry – detailed and incisive commentary, Ryan. Grma.
Ryan if you believe unionists voting for Brexit is like turkeys voting for Xmas, why the heck are SF,SDLP urging them not to? Why are they urging nationalists to vote remain? Surely this ‘reaching out’ business has gone too far if we are supposed to help our unionists brothers and sisters NOT make a mistake?
Nationalists need to shake themselves and stop being nice and honest. Their opponents are devious and deceitful and care for none only themselves. They will use every tool available to further their own interests and damage their opponents. People often claim unionists are predictable but so it can be said about nationalism.
Btw, I spoke to a few people in west Belfast last weekend, s.f heartland, and was taken aback by their determination to vote to leave. As is suspected in recent elections, are nationalists parties underestimating the feelings of their core electorate? We will see.
Wolf Tone,
The reason why Sinn Fein and the SNP are backing staying in the EU is because if the UK leaves the EU then their chief argument is going to be “We should have Irish Unity/Scottish Independence in order to stay in the EU”, that’s a powerful argument. They cant back Brexit and then say they support Irish Unity/Scottish Independence so Ireland/Scotland can stay in the European Union. Their political opponents would have a field day if they went down that route. Its a kind of hokey pokey type politics that wont impress anyone and would be damaging. The argument for Scottish Independence 2 years ago wasn’t strong enough as we seen by the result but all these Scottish No voters who want to stay in the EU are likely to change their minds now if England drags them out.
I’m sure many in the SNP/SF are secretly hoping for a Brexit despite the official line being opposed to it, the same way many Unionist politicians in the 80’s/90’s hoped for the IRA not to declare a ceasefire but officially they said they wanted one. James Molyneux the UUP Leader said the IRA ceasefire would be destabilize everything.
I’m sure the SDLP’s support for Britain remaining in the EU has nothing to do with Irish Unity, I think they are just being genuinely supportive of the UK/Ireland remaining in the EU and EU Co-operation. Compare this to Gerry Adams who said on a radio show 3 years ago that the EU should be “told where to go” when asked about EU austerity demands on Ireland.
I think the reason why a lot of Republicans (like myself) oppose the EU Wolf Tone is because its taking away political power from all its members. Its very debatable if the Republic, the UK, Spain, etc are even independent countries anymore because the EU has such immense power over these nations, they literally took control of the South’s purse in 2011 and didn’t give it back until 2013 after the Eurozone countries agreed to not running a deficit of 2% in the future, any nation that spends beyond 2% will be fined.
Of course we seen what has happened in Greece and how its economy has shrunk by 25%. Just think about that for a second, the Greek economy has shrunk by 25%….its crazy. This has been due to EU policies and austerity. If Greece was independent they could print their own currency to pay off its debt but they cant while in the Eurozone. True, their currency will be massively devalued but that’s great for attracting investment because it would be very cheap in Greece to employ people, buy property, etc using other more valuable currencies like Sterling, the Euro or the US Dollar. Tourists would flock to Greece to spend money and have a great time because its so cheap, a win win for both sides. It would be bad for imports because the drachma (Greek currency before Euro) would be weak but that’s economics. China has a very weak currency, that’s one reason why its booming now and is the World’s largest exporter. Weak currencies are not necessarily bad.
The whole point of the EU is a United States of Europe. National Parliaments will go eventually. The EU is even planning on merging all the armies in Europe (in response to threats from China and Russia) into one European Army within the next few years. They are allowing mass immigration from Asia and Africa because they know the native European peoples don’t want a European super state, so they are literally committing mass electoral fraud by bringing in voters from abroad, supplying them with social housing, social benefits, jobs (while there isn’t even enough for the people here already) in order to make them dependent on and supportive of the EU. Mass immigration also lowers wages, which is terrible for working people but fantastic for the most wealthy: Cheap labour = More profit.
All this is why I just voted LEAVE 30 minutes ago in the EU referendum.
Wolfe Tone
The thing is that you and Ryan are both correct – but not for the reasons you give.
The result of the vote today is irrelevant to Northern Ireland’s place within the United Kingdom – either way, it’s over.
Now, I know it doesn’t look like that: car registration plates are still white at the front and yellow at the back; road signs still look different; I can still apply for a passport which says, “Dieu Et Mon Droit” (and for the foreseeable future that will not change); we continue to pay for most things in Pounds Sterling; the Treasury is still in London; and the Union flag stills flies occasionally. But none of those matters are really the point – they are the mere external trappings of a fading Union.
The question you have to ask yourself is why London is facilitating Irish harmonisation in every other practical way, and, more pertinently, why, if it was so keen to preserve Northern Ireland’s place within the Kingdom, it would do so.
Northern Ireland is on borrowed time – neither a Leave nor a Remain vote will change that – each may have differing wider consequences, but either way, Ireland as an all island economic, cultural and tourist unit will continue to be recognised and encouraged. Once those things are complete, political union will follow. (In a way it’s a mini version of what is happening in Europe – economic and cultural union precedes political, because that’s easier to manage and implement.)
If I were a Nationalist, I would look to Britain’s recent warmth towards Ireland with satisfaction and encouragement, certain that I was only a few steps away from my preferred goal.
Put it this way, the fixtures and fittings of Northern Ireland’s house are being renewed and redecorated with a view to change of ownership.
That doesn’t please this Unionist, but it is, I fear, true.