Weeelllllll. Hands up if you saw that coming? Right, me neither. My prediction ability has remained firmly in place – I’m still rotten at it. On the other hand, even in their wildest naughty dreams, the DUP can’t have imagined their name resting on the lovely tongue of Mishal Husain. And few in the SDLP can have imagined that they’d end last night no longer able to call themselves the South Down and Londonderry Party.
In the coming days, there’ll be much talk about the abstentionist policy of Sinn Féin, which some will hope embarrasses them. Why can’t they get in there and vote with the Labour Party and change the face of Britain?
There may be some Shinners who will feel uncomfortable, once they come down from Cloud #9 over their wins in Derry and South Down. Not many, though. If anything, the issue of Irish reunification will be magnified every time the question of Sinn Féin’s abstentionism is raised. The Shinners’ refusal to put their rear-ends on the Chamber benches must prompt the question Why? To which the answer is, of course, that as roughly one hundred years ago Sinn Féin refused to take their Westminster seats because they believed in an independent Ireland, today’s Sinn Féin MPs are going to be giving the same answer. Sooner or later the British people will absorb the idea that maybe these Irish should finally be given that most modest of requests, control of their country.
But the name of the DUP will shortly leave Mishal’s mouth and land heavily in the midst of British horse-trading. Nigel and his ten-strong posse will be preening themselves at the thought of once more becoming British king-makers. Will their ability to squeeze out some more goodies for the north enhance their standing here? Um, sort of. Maybe.
The thing is, they’ve already gone as far as they can go with mopping up the unionist vote. The UUP is gone, so what electoral advantage will they have from getting into bed with the Tories? Like Alexander the Great, they may find themselves weeping that they’ve no more worlds to conquer.
In fact they could find themselves going backways. Entwining their limbs with the Tories will mean limb-entwining with the one party that last night emerged as the Big Losers. Not even that Welsh-National-Anthem-mouthing Tory John Redwood, on TV this morning, could gloss over that fact. So the DUP are about to get up close and personal with a party that’s just staggered from the slaughter-house, still alive but bleeding heavily and missing a limb or two.
If the Tories were unpopular before this election; they’ll become even more unpopular if they continue their hard Brexit charge. And the EU won’t have missed how Britain’s bargainers have the shakiest of backings back home. And who’s at the front of the queue to cuddle up to the bruised-and-bloody Tories? Take a bow, DUP. As a party traditionally agin supping the Devil’s buttermilk, you’ll surely applaud the sentiments of this little Irish poem. Providing, of course, you don’t spot political parallels.
It was a year ago, September
a day I well remember
I was walking up and down
in drunken pride
when my knees began to flutter
and I fell down in the gutter
and a pig came by and lay down by my side
As I lay there in the gutter
thinking thoughts I could not utter
I thought I heard a passing lady say,
“You can tell a man who boozes
by the company he chooses…”
And with that, the pig got up and walked away
Be careful what you wish for, Arlene,Nigel et al . Showering the upturned face of the Brexiting Tories with hot kisses may seem like fun at the time, but kisses can prove costly in months and years to come.


Tory ministers are in for some shock when they get up close to these DUP dinosaurs. To be a fly on the wall whenever the English hear DUP social policy and world views. They think Trump’s views are extreme? They ain’t heard nothin yet.
Well ….that’s Theresa May finished.The knives will be out as they scrabble over her bones.Who’ll be the new Tory leader out of that vicious scheming lot? As for the DUP, they’ll be kingmakers for a day or two until this new government finally collapses. The Tories will discover that the DUP are the new UKIP….more Tory than the bluest Tory could ever dream to be . The British people might get a really good look at them for the first time as they trip into the spotlight….they’ll watch with spinning eyes as the Duppers crank up that old time -machine and try to spin them all back to the 17th century.
How much can the DUP realistically hope to get out of the tories when everyone knows the DUP will not topple any tory government to let Corbyn into Downing Street ?
A good result for SF, apart from N Belfast which was always a tough ask, and a good result for the DUP.
Which is depressing for the rest of us. More of the same polarised nonsense.
Will this influence upcoming negotiations on the assembly?
It seems to me the DUP might be happier with Direct Rule now if they hold influence with the Tories.
That robs SF of some negotiating clout I would have thought.
It also knocks back the likelihood of a UI referendum. Of those eligible to vote only about 26% of the population voted for the 2 parties pursuing a united Ireland.
Indeed Gio. It is my understanding that the SF and SDLP vote totals are 238,915 and 95,419 respectively, verses DUP and UUP OF 292,316 AND 83,280 respectively.
Combined totals are 334,334 v 375,596 in favour of unionism by over 41,000 votes.
That is a massive difference, it is clear to me that if this was a unity ref (which a lot of people said this is how it was being fought) then Nationalism would have lost big style. The numbers just don’t appear to be there yet. Even as an indicator this has surely set talk of a border Poll back 10 years or so.
Kieran
I don’t know about 10 years. The way things are in flux at present makes prediction very difficult.
The deal has already been done with the DUP, and it has knocked special status on the head to begin with.
But May could yet be brought down by her own party. She clearly does not have their confidence and it is only a question of when they will judge the right time to strike.
Things may change again quickly and another election (god help us) could well be looming.
Well if DUP go into govt with the Tories for the life of this parliament it’s highly unlikely we’ll get a border poll this side of the 5year term. Under those circumstances 10yrs seems reasonable.
I can’t see this new Tory government withstanding the duration of brexit negotiations never mind 5 years !
At some point one faction of the Tory party will get wind of something in the brexit talks that they don’t like and will bring May down.
We’ll be facing a general election in the midst of talks which for my money will scupper Brexit.
May is finished and it’s a testament to her incompetence that she can’t see that.
Massively agree with you analysis Kieran. The election was a disaster for Nationalist and the UI project. The numbers arent there, and they wont be there for the foreseeable future.
the UK union is safe for a definite 20 more years.
as for demographic changes in the North? – i see no evidence of how that will effect things.
As a border nationalist who votes either side, im somewhat happy that the conservatives didnt get the majority. Brexit will be soft and there will be a soft border.
but as for the nationalist project of a UI, im very disappointed today. It wont be happening in my life time now.
@ Oriel27
I think your very wrong to look on this as some kind of defeat for Nationalism or that the UI project has been set back a generation. Its one election cycle and the DUP only made inroads due to sectarian pacts and boundaries that are bias towards unionism. The fact that the SDLP would not fight fire with fire leaves them destroyed. This is actually a very good day for nationalism. There is now no ‘Irish Nationalist’ interests in Westminster and rightly so. The nationalist community have completely accepted the principles of abstentionism. The SDLP have been completely exposed for what they are and are now dead and buried as are the UUP. If the SDLP come back it will be in the guise of Fainna Fail and regardless they will now be adopting the winning strategy of abstentionism.
The combined unionist vote has now fallen under 50% which is for the first time in the statelets history. On any other day that would be front page news! They may be celebrating but it’s a party built upon shaky foundations. Of course they were gonna be the biggest party in terms of votes. Demographic change is occurring but a nationalist voting majority is not due until 2022 at the earliest. We are on track and exactly where we need to be right now. I think a lot of nationalist got carried away thinking the electoral tipping point was nigh, but alas its about 5 years away. For every year that passes, there will be roughly 5,000 less votes from the unionist pool as the protestant demographic dies off.
This is the best result we could have hoped for as this will finally shine a light on the DUP by the British press. Also we will witness at first hand the backlash against the DUP for implementing Tory policies in the North.
As for Brexit lets see how well the North benefits from DUP influence. Its also clear that the UK government can no longer be impartial in the affairs of the North and as such the South now will have to step up to the plate.
Win, Win, Win……………. Ohh and Win !
thanks DR, thats a good summary of events. I never looked at it like that – its a positive enough outcome then.
I think it funny now, the DUP are seen as an irish party to the British. they wont like been called Paddys !
Dr Michael, I agree. In fact the DUP managing to shine a light on the 6 counties by winning ten seats and thus having a say on the next British govt is brilliant. Now all the pontificating British will see for themselves how we irish have had to put up with for years. Added to that the DUP, will be careful what they wish for and tread carefully, for they wouldn’t like to end up being slammed,rejected and called terrorists by their fellow Britishers……….in saying that, it looks(going by BBC social media) that the Brits have already started calling them terrorists anyway. Oh the irony.
For the shinners the election is probably one of the best outcomes they could’ve wished for I.e SDLP will be at fault for the DUP bigots ‘success’ and the British state that has worked hard at pretending it’s an ‘honest broker’ in the north could be exposed as a fraud that it is, and also the ‘west brit’ claim of free state govts could also be exposed if they don’t step up to the plate and represent Irish people in the north. A lot of middle of the road people in Ireland could now find themselves agreeing with Irish republicans I.e the Brits and staters are liars and frauds and certainly don’t warrant the ‘honest broker’ tag.
That is an excellent summary Dr Michael.
The DUP have done very well and can slap themselves on the back for maximising their vote but what will eventually prove sobering for them is that they have reached the glass ceiling in terms of improving their vote share.
The 7 nationalist constituencies are lost to them forever. Even with a Pact unionists couldn’t get Tom Elliott elected. The Nationalist electorate continues to increase while the unionist one shrinks.
Nationalists can now start making inroads into the other 11 constituencies.
Once unseated in a constituency the track record shows that SDLP vote share drops off dramatically as the nationalist electorate realises the SDLP have no realisable chance of winning. I expect in the next election cycle that Sinn Féin will eclipse the SDLP in South Belfast.
Although they will not be able to win any seats in the North the SDLP can still ensure Sinn Féin have difficulty in winning in South Belfast or North Belfast in the face of a unionist pact/ agreement. Even without the SDLP standing aside I still think Sinn Féin will be capable of winning those 2 seats possibly even within the next 5 years.
Kieran, 41,000 isn’t that much especially when you consider the age of voters and numbers of younger nationalists.
Few strategies might expedite this- just recognise N .Ireland as part of UK and call for UK wide referendum on norxit. (easy win for republicans)
Implement the border poll agreed to under the anglo-Irish agreement which would lead to 60% of the north transferred to Republic (including Belfast and Derry) leaving the rest not big enough to survive.
Gio,
“‘It also knocks back the likelihood of a UI referendum. Of those eligible to vote only about 26% of the population voted for the 2 parties pursuing a united Ireland”.
29.4% of those voting chose Sinn Féin never mind those who voted for the SDLP.
I thought someone like yourself you espouses the merits of democracy would know that democratic change is brought about by those who vote and not those who don’t!
Pointis
Yes of course.
But any S O S will look at the figures and see the % of the whole population rather than the % of those who voted, I would have thought.
But even adding the SDLP and SF figures of those who voted that only reaches 40%.
I don’t think it is going to persuade an S O S do you?
“29.4% of those voting chose Sinn Féin never mind those who voted for the SDLP”
I think the SDLP won 11% of the vote in this election Pointis.
What isn’t being mentioned in this election is the fact the Unionist vote has declined below 50% for the first time in the history of the state. It was around 80% in the 1970’s, according to one graph. All predictions show the Unionist vote is in terminal decline, where it will bed down is anyones guess but its my opinion that its just a matter of time before Republicans have more MP’s than Unionists, the same goes for the Assembly.
Even the SOS cant deny a border poll when that day comes and it’s coming very soon. Politics is mostly full of crap talk but one thing is for sure: The Numbers don’t lie.
gio I think the DUP are loyal to their members. They won’t want to ruin the careers of most if their party. They will hold on for dear life to the assembly especially when May tells them to shut up and support, or she will talk to as SF lol. Never will a British PM have such loyal unquestioning lap dogs.
emmet
Maybe. But they seem to me to be all about short term tactics with no long term strategy.
In the long term the demographics are against them.
If they think the union is safer in the short term with Direct Rule they will go that way.
I think lap dogs is a bit unfair too. The election is over. How about a bit of respect ?
It probably is a bit disrespectful, but ‘unquestinably loyal to the point of telling people to accept pain so they can show loyalty’ was too hard to type on my phone. I apologise for my disrespect , now you apologise for making me type that.
emmet
I regret any hurt caused.
I think, in a spirit of conciliation and brimming with the milk of human kindness, it is time to put the boot in and say farewell to the Hibernian, Redmondite, church-ridden,erectile dysfunctional and pro- Treaty “social democrats”. This wipe out is almost as good as winning a border poll.
fiosrach
erectile dysfunctional?
Nice to see the respect agenda is still being championed here.
I think he is referring to the impotence of SDLP policy but I agree it isn’t cry respectful. Fiosrach try to be more humble in your victory, several SDLP are now looking for new careers. There is not need to stick the boot in, the we electorate have done that already.
Interesting that had SDLP considered Sf pact they could have won S Belfast, given Sf a better chance at N Belfast (think they miss out by 2k votes, Sldp received 2k votes?)and potentially denied pro brexit DUP 2 seats. But I guess that is history now.
Don’t be naive,Emmet. The SDLP couldn’t even consider a pact with Sinn Féin. After all they are the principled party, the party on the high moral ground. They don’t mind oath taking and curtseying but cooperate with the rag tag Sinners? No sirree.
I never expected the SDLP to do it but I love saying ‘well now didn’t I tell you so.’ I have a long list of grievances with the SDLP but that is an sceal eile.
Referring, of course, to their inability to stand up straight. What respect agenda are you referring to? Respect is earned as is disrespect. Glad that is all you could query 🙂
It was a great night for both the DUP and SF. The SDLP’s folly of rejecting pact after pact with SF cost them last night. The result in North Belfast was very encouraging for Sinn Fein, it looks like the DUP vote there has maxed out and I’m pretty confident it will be a Sinn Fein seat, most likely held by John Finucane, sooner or later. The same goes for South Belfast. A pact between SF/SDLP in both North and South Belfast would’ve had Belfast having 3 out of 4 Nationalist MP’s which accurately reflects the City’s demographics.
The big surprise last night for me was Alliance losing in East Belfast, I thought the UUP would’ve got them over the line but I think the days of the UUP are numbered. Most Unionists think this is a good thing, they think all the votes then would go to the DUP instead of 2 parties but things are never that simple. Its estimated, by one Unionist politician, that 50,000 Unionist voters would rather vote for Alliance rather than 1 Unionist party, whether it be the DUP or a merged party. I agree with that. If there was ever one Unionist party Alliance would simply replace the UUP and be a challenger to the DUP.
Sinn Fein have almost doubled their seat tally. I honestly didn’t think they would take a seat in South Down or Foyle but it happened.
The SDLP have some serious questions to ask themselves. They are declining to the point of non-existence and its about time they realize they must work with Sinn Fein at elections instead of trying to challenge them. Personally I think its better having 2 Nationalist parties in the form of SF and the SDLP rather than just 1 Nationalist party. The SDLP have to buck up their ideas and realize that Unionist voters aren’t going to be enough anymore to get them over the line.
Emmett, SDLP work with SF? Ask Fiosrac above what he thinks of that idea. And SF is full of nationalist loathing Fiosracs. Sorry to see it but SDLP as we know it are gone and that leaves a swathe of 100k nationalists seeking a home. But with the continued disrespect shown by the Fiosracs of this world they will most likely become a silent minority. SF Fiosracs are missing a trick by continuing to bash 100k voters.
I would say that SF would gladly accept the support of the headless chickens but can they shake off the malign influence of the Redmondites.
Martin, Things change. Republicans had no voice for decades. The SDLP just need to go back to their principles. The career driven members will be gone within 6 months at which point the SDLP should go back to its roots. Most republicans know deep down that a one party republic is not a good idea. I fear that the SDLP will now look to FG (maybe FF) which will be a bigger disaster and ensure the SDLP are resigned to history.
I have to admit, I have never been keen on PRSTV in determining elections. This is because it leads to weak government, reliant upon others to form administrations with widely competing interests, FF/Greens for one, the Army Comrades Association and the stickies for another, of course, in occupied Ireland, with ‘enforced coalition’, per Mr. Allister, we get it constantly.
To answer the question Jude, yes, albeit not to the degree to which it has occurred, I was in England a couple of weeks ago, there was, in well to do, middle class areas, no gra for the tories, even in Wimbledon Rugby Club.
Fair does to Jesus Christ (Jeremy Corbyn) for, in a dreadfully positive campaign, where, not once, did he engage in personal attack on the incumbent, he delivered a swing to labour, three and a half times greater than that delivered by Blair in ’97’s landslide.
His position as a real alternative to the tories is secure, at least ’til MI5 shoot himself and his shadow chancellor.
Ansoe, we have the return of two party politics, not the old OUP/DUP struggle but a reformed electorate.
Now I like Mark Durkan, a decent man, Alasdair has endeavored to be effective, in face of difficult issues in Belfast south and it’s been a long time since I was in Dun Phadraig but the people of the six Ulster counties have shown what they want, clearly the largest party will be keen to support the tories, albeit I revisit what one of their founders stated at it’s inception ‘we shall be to the right on the constitutional question and to the left on social issues’, seems they’ve become lost in the RHI smokescreen.
The DUP, in respect of Brexit will be split, mad keen to remove Britain and this part of Ireland from the EU, which I wholly support but, from a big business viewpoint, as well as all the fishermen who have to go to Connaught for the May fly each year and the followers of certain foreign sports played at Lansdown Rd., they must support the free movement of nationals freely throughout the whole of the National territory, which begs the question, what of non-nationals? This I suspect will be an issue for their key supporters, as Chris Stalford said last night, they had been out on the ground in Sandy Row, and one must presume the Village/ Donegal Pass too, to secure the votes to win Belfast south, they will want to maintain this vote, and there’s not a lot of love for Fenians in this area, let alone people who were not born in the Jubilee.
The biggest problem to progress here is, now, the DUP, we’re back to 1992 again, even more so, with lame duck (or dead duck) May wholly reliant upon the Neanderthals they planted here.
Election UK 2 will be out soon, staring the aforementioned JC,, sub-titled, for the people, not the neo-liberal elites.
I’m finding it hard to see the silver-lining in this dark cloud. The SDLP should not have ran in North Belfast and Sinn Féin should not have ran in South Belfast. But the SDLP were too pig-headed to see that an electoral pact would have benifitted them more than Sinn Féin. That said, it will do no harm to have the SDLP out of the way in the next election. It sickens me to the stomach that the DUP will be in Government in England. And to think that two of the seats that they gained are in majority nationalist constituancies. With the absence of an assembly the nationalism will have no platform from which they can air their views. Sinn Féin should be able to weather this storm but I’d say that the SDLP are as good as gone.
With this result, the DUP are now in possession of more rope than they’ve ever had before.
I know what I expect them to do with it.
Theresa and her Tory government have recently been telling us how opposed they are to terrorism, what they are and will do to combat it.
But now that they’ve taken the DUP into their loving arms, how will they react to the fact that their new junior partners are up to their necks in supporting loyalist terror groups (UDA, UVF, RHC etc) to the extent that Arlene Foster has been photographed presenting bounteous cheques to the leaders of these killer gangs?
I think Theresa should let us know!
Hi Jude. I can’t remember the SDLP ever calling themselves the South Down and Londonderry Party.
SDLP are gone but I suppose it is going to take a while to break a habit of a lifetime and end the SDLP bashing.
SF are now the decision makers and with decisions comes mistakes and it will be interesting if these will receive the same attention or will everything remain the SDLP fault
What is another word for disingenuous?
disingenuous regarding what?
That was not a response to your comment Martin, simply a question re: occupied Irelands largest vote winners.
And what are the thoughts of the astute journalist Jude Collins this fair morn, post election? I just had a read pf this! He opines that Arlene and Nigel showering the face of the Tories with hot kisses may backfire in the years to come .
He makes a fair point, in my view. After all, The two most hated figures in UK politics are attempting to get together for a last ditch effort to ride rough shod over the UK electorate ….Arlene and Terezilla are not yet resigned to the fact that 300, 000 members of the UK public have already signed a petition calling for DUP-BLUEKIP TO RESIGN and so they should NOW in my view too Yes They should resign with immediate effect. The fact needs to be faced that
Bluekip and the DUP are terminal anachronisms in a modern progressive political age and while they Terezilla and Arlene intransigently cling to past times and think they are entitled to rip up our rights it becomes clear that they have no legitimate place in politics here . In fact Arlene Foster, The anti-abortion, anti-gay, loyalisr terrorist sympathiser and climate change denier will make a great wrecking ball of a coalition partner who will fully open up the cracks in the Farl-right Tory Facade and to disastrous effect!..who knows with any luck Bluekip might have had it for good ? ……Meanwhile Europe scoffs at the two most unpopular and bigotted pigs at the trough in a vulgar feeding frenzy , sqealing at the thought of the Brexit no deal and gay cures probably ..in hindsight not a pretty sight…lets hope it doesnt amount to more than a squalid, over-hasty breakfast in bed …Yet .I do know for all that there must be some decent Tories and I truly hope any decent Tory listening defects to a decent party to effect ..if only in the interests of preserving their embattled scruples…because those two porcine pariahs will be out for what remains of the scruples of any few decent remauning Tories.
It is possible that at this moment Lord Heseltine maybe pouring a whisky and toasting his sacking…after all would you adam and eve it?.look who Terezilla just got into bed with…
It is heartening that the “nunc dimittis” speech of Mark Durkin(a likeable, witty and transparently decent man)and the acceptance speeches of Chris Hazzard were gracious and generous. As was that of Emma Little Pengelly. Indicative perhaps of a new are of respect?
But nothing should disguise the fact that, had the two nationalist parties agreed to co-operate and compromise we would now be looking at ten united Ireland representatives as opposed to eight unionists. Did Colm Eastwood really think it preferable to have two neanderhals like Dodds and Eliot elected rather than come to an agreement that would have possibly allowed them to retain their three seats. “Is truamhéileach an té a dheanas olc agus a bhéas bocht in a dhiaidh”. Pity he who does wrong and is booed afterwards”.
With regard to the respective percentages of votes cast as being indicative of respective unionist and nationalist demographics (if I may mix metaphors) the dog that did not bark is the elephant in the room. I refer to “dissident” and dissenting republicans, comprising possibly 5 to 10 per cent of the nationalist population, who would in no circumstances vote in a Westminster election, but who would likely vote in a referendum on unity.
Hi Brian. It is a sorry day that the mighty UK has become reliant on 10 DUP MP’s to force through a Brexit, which I honestly believe the good citizens are now realising will be an utter disaster for the UK. But that is where we are at.
However, and if I remember correctly, Colm Eastwood was the first out of the blocks seeking independent unity candidates to run on an anti-brexit ticket. But his search was futile.
SF then disingenuously sought SDLP unilaterally stand down in North Belfast and FST, without offering anything in return.
Why did Michelle O’Neill not offer SDLP a free rein in South Belfast where Dr McDonnell would have retained his seat rather than letting in Little Pengally?
If SDLP votes were added to SF in North Belfast, Dodds would still have won. In FST, Michelle Gildernew got in with or without the SDLP. So if anyone could have made a difference by standing aside it would have been SF.
Martin, May doesn’t need a vote in parliament to push through brexit. The referendum (will of Brit People) allows her to enact the withdrawal.
SDLP refused to even consider a pro-EU voting pact. You can’t ignore SDLP intransigance in their demise. Eastwood’s anti SF rhetoric destroyed their party you can’t suggest SF didn’t try to discuss a voting pact (they have done so for the last few elections even the one were SDLP were smug and happy about a Unionist taking FST) at SF expense because the DUP and SDLP cavorted to damage them.
Emmet
Tories don’t need vote to enact brexit, but there is populist and legal momentum building that a vote will be required to push through the outcome of any negotiations.
Secondly, and again, Colm Eastwood was first out of blocks to seek pro-EU, non-aligned, cross community Independent candidates.
The SDLP have only themselves to blame. They’ve constantly fell into the trap of being accused by the shinners of simply being ABSF(anybody but Sinn Fein). I.e they’ve implied pacts with t.v Mike etc even though t.v Mike and his party definitely didn’t have their hearts in such a pact. A blind man could see that. S.f simply had to point out to voters that the SDLP don’t care about anything only themselves and hate us. They’d willingly allow a bigot unionist to win a seat to spite us. Sin é.
Added to that they were busy acting important in westmonster despite the fact to most folk here think that place is irrelevant to them, in their eyes. Again falling into another easy trap- the SDLP are just interested in hob-nobbing to the British or whatever is available to them.
Btw, I pointed here a while back, judging by the campaign style of my local SDLP candidate for westmonster, that they’d struggle in further elections. This clown decided to visit businesses to garner support and neglected to visit local housing estates I.e a whiff of snobbery was in the air. Not a good way to go if you realise a lot of folk are not snobs. For example, my wife(wouldn’t be political)would’ve voted SF in years gone by but in the last few years either didn’t bother voting or voted for SDLP candidate. However she noted that the SDLP didn’t feel it worthwhile to canvass where we live and thus she decided to vote s.f, simply cos they made the effort. It ain’t rocket science.
The proverb should have read “poor” afterwards, not “booed”. Unpredictable “predictive” text!