Success has many parents, failure is an orphan. So if , as is looking increasingly likely, Britain leaves the EU with no deal completed and thus no two-year period of grace AND a hard border in Ireland, who will be to blame?
Well, you could start with the British public, which voted for Brexit in the first place; or you could go a step back before that and accuse the Tory party, for its vicious infighting which led David Cameron to hold the doomed referendum in the first place.
Will the people of Ireland, north and south, suffer from a hard Brexit? Most certainly. If trade between north and south, now flowing smoothly, were to be slowed down at border posts, the effect on traders would be increasingly nightmarish. Yes, yes, I know, Victoria. Back in December last (it does feel like a century ago, doesn’t it?), Theresa May committed by letter to a backstop: that is, no matter what else happened in negotiations, the border in Ireland would remain as invisible/soft as it is at present. Now the noises coming out of the Tory cabinet is redefining backstop as meaning no border in the Irish sea between the north and Britain. What’s more, the backstop, whether you see it as being in the Irish sea or across Ireland, is being linked to the term ‘time-limited’. In other words, even if there is a backstop that comes into play, it’ll happen for a limited time only. Like two years. And now the new British Brexit secretary, Dominic Raab, is talking about Britain not paying its £35 billion debt to the EU on departure.
But to come back to the increasingly likely train crash of a hard Brexit: is there anybody we can blame in particular? Boris Johnson? Nigel Farage? Mmm, maybe. But what about the DUP?
It’s congratulating itself on having Theresa May and the Tories exactly where they want them. All their emphasis is on no hard border in the Irish Sea. Which means, if we’ve any respect for logic, that the DUP is at least agnostic and more likely fervent about having a hard border across Ireland. Remember how some of them used to talk of building a wall between north and south? This will effectively give them their wish.
Although as Arlene Foster herself has commented :”Be careful what you wish for.” If Britain crashes out of the EU, the price for both parts of Ireland will be considerable. The DUP will be identified, even among its supporters, as the source of the economic misery. And people who don’t give a damn about politics will suddenly realize why their livelihood is at risk or gone, and will be desperate for a way to repair at least some of the damage.
Short-term, the DUP can strut the corridors of Westminster, aware of itself as the ultimate king-maker. Long-term, they will have catapulted thousands of people into the ranks of those who believe that, economically and politically, a united Ireland is the only thing that makes sense.
Sometimes a political party can be more clever than is good for it.
Comments are closed.