The indicators against a hard Brexit are becoming more obvious by the day. Here in our Tormented Green Corner (TGC) the Ulster Farmers Union and the business community have made it clear they want the deal Theresa May has cobbled together. Are they right?
Because it can be argued that predictions of Brexit disaster may be false. Brexiteers like to point to the predictions of planes not flying and medical supplies running out and other grim warnings about what would happen the moment the UK voted Leave. But the planes are still flying, the medical supplies haven’t run out. Do the Brexiteers maybe have a point?
Sorry, guys. What the Brexiteers don’t like mentioning is that $2 trillion was wiped off world markets following the Brexit referendum results. On a personal level, my visits to Dublin and New York have made a significantly bigger hole in my pocket than would have been the case five years ago, because the pound exchange rate has dropped. And I’m sure tens of thousands of others felt the same pinch.
So it’s possible to point to the outcome of Brexit as positive (or at least neutral) or negative, depending on what data you want to refer to. The really important question is, what will happen when, as it plans to do, the UK leaves the EU in less than five months?
There was a conference in the Europa a week or two back which I had planned to attend but at the last moment life intervened. It featured a presentation entitled ‘The Cost of Non-Unification – Brexit and the Unification of Ireland’. The study was done by the Canadian firm KLC Consultants, and looked at three possible Brexits: a hard Brexit , in which all of the UK left the single market and the customs union; Northern Ireland stayed within the single market and customs union; and the unification of Ireland.
A hard Brexit, it was predicted, would reduce the GDP of our Tormented Green Corner by nearly £9 billion, over a four-year period. Our TGC staying in the single market and customs union would cost us £3.3 billion over four years. A united Ireland would raise our GDP by almost £18 billion over four years.
Economic predictions are a bit like getting married: you don’t know if your vision trumpets and rose petals will be true until it’s too late. Predictions can be right, predictions can be wrong. So maybe the UUP’s Steve Aiken was right when he said this about Prof Habner’s report in the Europa:
“There is no way we can go from one of the largest economies in the world with close on a three trillion GDP into joining something like the Irish Republic that will have significant problems going forward, particularly if the Irish Government continue pushing us towards making sure we have a hard Brexit rather than having an appropriate Brexit for everybody.”
When you hear someone include the phrase “going forward” in their speech, it’s a clear sign they’re in mini-panic mode and are using this meaningless verbal gobbet as a way of playing for time to think of something half-sensible. So has Steve succeeded? Are we talking about leaving a hugely wealthy country and uniting with the relatively threadbare economy of the south?
It’s first necessary to take into account some facts. One is that the rosy figures Steve cites for the UK are those it developed while still a member of the EU. But we’re not talking about the UK in the EU – we’re talking about the UK out of the EU. A different – in fact directly opposite – matter.
As for “joining something like the Irish republic”, maybe Steve should take into account the fact that the south of Ireland is growing three times faster than the average EU state. This surge is mainly due to multi-national companies operating in the south. And guess where many companies are currently relocating to, in advance of next March? That’s right – out of the UK and into the south of Ireland.
It’s true we can never exactly predict how things will work out in the future. It’s possible that if I drive a quarter of a mile at 60 mph with my eyes closed, I’ll live to tell the tale. But it’s not something I’m planning to do. The odds are stacked just a little too high against me.
Likewise lepping out of the EU wearing a blindfold. Wakey-wakey, Steve.
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