Richard Nixon knew what politics felt like, both at the sharp end and at the sweet end: “Having lost a close one eight years ago and having won a close one this year, I can say this – winning’s a lot more fun.”
When they bring us election results, TV cameras tend to focus on the unbridled joy of the winners and let the losers quietly slink away, to bandage their wounds and wonder what to do next time.
The man who had most fun in last week’s European elections was, of course, Nigel Farage. I can’t help but admire Farage. The Brexit Party leader has used a naturally optimistic disposition to develop a cheeky chappy political persona, which comes across very effectively in interview and debate. It also helps, of course, that his message is simple: Britain needs to return to former glory days and it’s those damned immigrants who are the problem. Add a hopelessly divided Tory party and a Labour leader who has failed to lead, and the stage was set for Farage to cavort and triumph.
In the south of Ireland, the European and local elections showed how deeply forgiving the electorate are. They’ve re-established Fianna Fail as if that giant 2008 muck-up never happened. Micheál Martin’s party has now the most council seats of any party in the south. And the southern electorate are still quite well disposed towards Leo Varadkar and his mates: Fine Gael may not have flourished in last Friday’s election but neither did they tank.
No, the party that suffered, at local and EU level, was Sinn Féin. The media quickly focused on the party’s president Mary Lou McDonald as the source of the problem. First, they cheerfully point out, Liadh Ni Riada got a measly 6% in the presidential election; now the party has lost local council seats throughout the state, and the four Sinn Féin MEPs have probably been reduced to two.
So was Mary Lou the sole source of the problem? Uh-uh. I suspect that a number of factors were at play
One was the absence of Gerry Adams. When Adams was President, the media bayed that Sinn Féin were damaging themselves by holding onto this relic from the violent past, and that a new-skin leader like Mary Lou would free them from their shackles. In fact, the opposite appears to have happened: Gerry Adams’s departure has coincided with a dip in Sinn Féin’s fortunes. But don’t expect the mainstream media to apologise for their fake analysis. They don’t do apology.
And there are other forces at work. After decades of existing on the fringe, the Green Party has barged into the European limelight. For why? For because the reports coming from those concerned with the environment and the food chain have become notably more panic-inducing. Some suggest we have as little as eleven years left before we do irreparable damage. Global warming has become global over-heating, climate change has become climate crisis. That’s the kind of uncomplicated good cause which draws young people and their votes.
The departure of the popular and competent Peadar Toibin from Sinn Féin to found a rival republican party hasn’t helped. Nor has the ejection of the equally popular Barry McElduff– even though he’s back as a councillor – gone unnoticed in the south.
But the real test of Mary Lou’s leadership will be in the coming months, as she rallies the party and prepares for a general election in the south, As she said herself, leadership emerges (or doesn’t) when you hit a bump on the road, not when things are going just fine.
Things, as the song repeats, can only get better.
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