The man of the moment is Michael Gove, as he himself would be the first to tell you. Not only has he sorted out the Irish protocol, he has, he claims, created a “smoother glide path” for Boris Johnson to come back from Europe with some sort of deal.
But here’s the thing: Michael Gove is in the straw-man-making industry. The Irish protocol was part of the Withdrawal Agreement last year. It was only when Boris Johnson ripped out the offending protocol, vowing never to have any interference with the integrity of the UK, that this became a problem. The House of Lords (not my favourite institution but one that showed some cojones on this occasion) promptly put them back in, arguing that Britain couldn’t afford to create an image of itself as a country which signed up one day and then said they’d changed their mind the next. Johnson this very week was all set to remove once again the offending Irish protocol stuff governing trade between the North-East of Ireland and Britain. UK integrity, UK sovereignty and all that. But lo! The mighty Gove has sliced through that Gordian knot and says it’s OK, the Irish protocol will stand, and let’s hope the EU will show similar flexibility and goodwill.
Which means we’re back where we started. It’s not as if Gove has made some great concession to the EU: he’s simply admitting that Britain signed up to the Irish protocol when they signed the Withdrawal Agreement last year. Let me build my straw man so I can knock the crap out of it and then claim I’m being constructive. We’re dumb, dear Michael, but not as dumb as you think.
So maybe Boris’s glide-path won’t be that smooth. Europe, Ireland, England, Scotland and Wales are holding their breath to see if Johnson’s meeting with Ursula von der Leyen will pull off some last-minute deal. I’m no prescient pen-pusher, but I think he will. Leaders of countries don’t tend to invite the international spotlight to watch them falling flat on their face. It’s possible that Johnson could try to magic up failure into some kind of ragged victory, but more likely it’ll be Boris the Great coming back from Europe with – I was almost going to say a piece of paper in his hand as token of his victory. But that might have uncomfortable echoes of Neville Chamberlain and peace in our time. Johnson, I think, will come back with some kind of deal, so the British people can see what he has always been convinced of himself – that Boris really really is Great. It’s a part he plays very well, since it springs from a deep inner conviction.
Brexit with a deal will be bloody awful. Brexit without a deal would next to unbearable. All the pirouetting of Gove and Johnson won’t change that. Fortunately, Ireland has an obvious answer: a border poll.
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