In this here stateen, on 28 April 2021 ,Arlene Foster resigned/was toppled as First Minister, amid general unionist frustration with the Withdrawal bill and the ‘Irish protocol’ in particular. It seemed somebody tougher than Arlene was needed to stand up to the ruling Conservative Party in Britain.
In its first-ever leadership contest, Edwin Poots and Sir Jeffrey Donaldson stood for election. Poots defeated Donaldson by 19 votes to 17. Game over? Not quite. Just 21 days later Poots resigned amid much DUP discontent over, among other things, his installation as First Minister of his protégé Paul Givan. Sir Jeffrey Donaldson took over as party leader, declaring that he planned to give up his seat in Westminster and take a seat in Stormont. It hasn’t happened yet.
Looking back on 2021, the contrast in fortunes between the DUP and Sinn Féin could scarcely be starker. In the most recent opinion poll in the south, Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil were both at 20%, with Sinn Féin disappearing over the horizon at 35%. In the north, the latest poll shows Sinn Féin at 25% with the DUP at 16%. This, astonishingly, is a marked improvement for the DUP, who in a previous poll had come third of the unionist parties, behind both the UUP and the TUV.
So what does all this mean? On the face of it, it seems likely that Sinn Féin will become the largest party in Stormont after the May election, with Michelle O’Neill as First Minister. And it seems equally likely that Sinn Féin will become the biggest party in the south and Mary Lou McDonald will become Taoiseach.
As things stand, Sinn Féin north and south could scarcely ask for a rosier prospect in 2022.
But hold the champagne. Politics and parties rarely stay the same. Harold Macmillan summed it up with his “Events, dear boy, events” warning. A week is a long time in politics (just ask Boris Johnson). The five months between now and May could contain the unexpected, including Sir Jeffrey Donaldson throwing his toys out of the pram and collapsing Stormont. It’d be a hara-kiri way to avoid a humiliating defeat in May’s election but it could happen. Likewise in the south, when Micheál Martin finishes his time as Taoiseach, we could see a change in the fortunes of Fianna Fáil. If Edwin could replace Arlene and Jeffrey could replace Edwin, Jim O’Callaghan could move and take the FF reins from Micheál Martin. And if that happened, Sinn Féin might well have found their junior partner for government.
You thought 2021 was interesting? Look out – here comes 2022.
Bliain úr faoi mhaise duit.
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