As you doubtless know, there’s this gentleman’s agreement that there be no talk about an election for 24 hours before the polls open. I’ve always thought that a dumb arrangement: the politicians don’t stop canvassing 24 hours before polling, so why should the media?
Fortunately, however, there’s multi-channel TV now, and on France 24 yesterday evening they had a discussion about the election here in the North.The participants were: Graham Gudgeon, former adviser to First Minister Trimble, I think; Agnes Maillot, authors of a book titled Rebels in Government: Is Sinn Féin Ready for Power?; John Manley of The Irish News; and Aoife Clements, the founder of 50-50 NI.
Considering that many of the audience had to be reminded of the context, it was a fascinating discussion. Gudgeon, of course, stuck to an anti-Shinner line, insisting that nothing would have changed if Michelle O’Neill became First Minister. You’re right in one sense, Graham – co-equals and all that- but wrong in a more important sense: the prisoners take over the jail. The other three people – Maillot, Clements and Manley- were fluent and insightful, without being pompous. (Btw: when did The Irish News concede defeat and start love-bombing the Shinners?) Aoife Clements, who looked and sounded like a younger Claire Hanna, was particularly good in talking about the large number of people who appeared to be interested in neither orange nor green, and what that might mean in future developments. John Manley, as I recall, was a bit more sceptical about a massive growth in Alliance Party votes.
All were agreed – yes, Virginia, even Dudgeon – that today would see Sinn Féin emerge as the largest party. They even moved to the inner circle of hell for Dudgeon and all unionists: what if the Alliance Party really were capable of nudging past the DUP and becoming the second largest party? Stranger things have happened.
Anyway, with the day that’s in it, I think I’ll open temporarily the comment section on my blogsite (if I can remember how to do it), so people can offer their predictions for how the melting pot of today will look when the final count is completed. Two things we know: if Sinn Féin become largest party, the DUP will be sorely tempted to reach for the protocol fig-leaf as an excuse for not serving under a SF government. The second is that, if the Alliance Party nudge ahead of the DUP and become the second largest party, leaving the DUP behind in third, that party would have a collective nervous breakdown and begin rushing around in circles, barking hysterically and biting its own tail.
Don’t you just love elections?
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