Alex Kane, the unionist commentator and columnist, is a most agreeable man. In discussion, he has a habit of beginning “I agree with X” before going on and sometimes clearly disagreeing with X. He was an adviser to the Ulster Unionists fado fado; now he writes for The Irish Times and The Irish News. He also writes clearly and well, which is a great help to the reader.
This morning he has a column in the Irish Times in which he makes several points. Prominent among them is this depressing note:
“Having observed the peace process very closely since the original IRA and loyalist paramilitary ceasefires in August and October 1994, I can’t now avoid the conclusion that it will be impossible to put in place a stable, genuinely co-operative, powersharing government in Northern Ireland. I write that with a heavy heart, because I supported the Belfast Agreement.”
When you get a judgement like that from Kane you tend to listen. If he’s right, all the hopes and ambitions and dreams built on the GFA back in 1998 were built on sand. Sinn Féin-DUP Executive? Forget it. It’s over. He could be wrong, of course, but the history of the Executive is that of a body with a weak heart, given to regular collapsing.
And while I was swallowing hard and trying to come to terms with that sober judgement, Kane delivered a second, even more important judgement: “The biggest problem of all is that the shadow of a Border poll – which I think is inevitable – will continue to hang over everything for years.” Half of this sentence is half-right and the other half pretty astonishing.
The half-right bit is where he believes ‘shadow of a Border poll’ will hang over everything for years’. I don’t think it’ll hang over things ‘for years’ – if by ‘years’ he means a very long time. it’ll hang over things until a border poll is called, which may be relatively soon. Colum Eastwood says it should be in 2030, which is just seven years. Boylesports is already open to bets on the matter.
But the most remarkable clause in Kane’s judgement today is “ which I think is inevitable”.Of course one of the founders of the DUP, Wallace Thompson, said the same thing a few days back. Thompson, however, is very much yesterday’s man. Kane is today’s man, and if he says he believes a border poll is inevitable, it’s truly meaningful. Because when the British Secretary of State calls a border poll, it will be, as the GFA says, because he believes that it will be won by nationalists.Tiocfaidh ár lá votáil.
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