A day before Ireland goes to the polls, the biggest challenge the opposition faces is convincing people that change is possible and that their vote can make a difference
It’s a cliché that is true of all elections, but particularly so as Ireland goes to the polls on Nov. 29 to elect a new government – the country is at a crossroads, and the choice is between more of the same, or real change, and all that’s stopping the latter is cynicism.
With polls showing Fianna Fáil, Fine Gael and Sinn Féin battling it out for top spot and an array of smaller parties jockeying for position and perhaps a few crumbs of power, there are few signs in the tea-leaves to tell us how it’s going to go.
The professional pundits will all be stroking their chins and pontificating as they give their predictions over the last day of the campaign, and most of them will be wrong.
Hundreds of thousands of new young voters will go into the voting booth for the first time, and they may well decide the future course of the country, if quiet cynicism doesn’t prevent them from casting their ballots.
I’ve written extensively in recent weeks about “agenda-setting theory” and how the mass media cannot tell us what to think, but it can certainly tell us what to think about,
Ruled by conservatives since the foundation of the state and with an original constitution dictated almost word for word by religious zealots, not to mention the schools and a health system still in their iron grip, Ireland doesn’t like change, the main political expression of which is “sure they’re all the same anyway, it’s not even worth your while voting.”
This kind of thinking is what has given Ireland 100 years of conservative rule, with all the cruelty and carelessness that that implies, and what keeps it going is the idea that your vote doesn’t matter.
It does.
On Friday, it’s the only thing that matters.
The three-week campaign has been many things, but memorable is not one of them. There have been gaffes aplenty and the leaders of the various political parties have once again shown us who they are, but none of this is news.
What this election comes down to is one question – do you want Ireland to stay the same, or do you want change?
It’s easy to understand why many would want it to remain the same – if you’re in stable, secure employment, own your own home and your family is relatively healthy, you have little need to rock the boat.
But not everyone is as lucky, and the ones who aren’t are the ones you should consider voting for in this election – not because they are candidates (with limited exceptions, this is never allowed to happen), but because of their circumstances.
If the comfortable can set aside their selfishness for a few brief moments in the voting booth on Friday, something entirely different is possible.
A country where children’s spines do not deteriorate to the point where they are beyond repair as they wait for medical care, homes for everyone who needs one (and that is everyone), care for the elderly that focuses on their quality of life and dignity, rather than the bottom lines of private providers milking the state for all they can.
What the campaign has showcased so far is the sense of entitlement of Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael and their addiction to power at the expense of all else – Ireland may be among the world’s poorest nations for railway infrastructure, but the gravy train still stops at all their stations, and they intend to continue to ride first-class on it for the next four or five years.
Their glaring failures – chief among them bankrupting the country, bailing out the banks and imposing vicious austerity on those who have the least in Irish society – are not something they are prepared to discuss when perusing the alternatives; all they have to offer when it comes to Sinn Féin’s housing and other policies is “they used to be the IRA, they cannot be trusted”.
There is an element of truth to that, but not because of the knee-jerk IRA-ing that is the signum of Those Who Can Be Trusted; it is highly unlikely that Sinn Féin in power will bring anything like the radical change that is needed to repair and rebuild Irish society after decades of neo-liberal trashing.
Mary Lou McDonald is a competent, capable, committed and skilled politician, and her nuanced understanding of the need for compromise to get things done is both a great strength and a big weakness; it will see them move more and more towards the centre should they lead the next government, which is something neither of the opposition parties have ever been keen to do.
To take power, they will likely need to either form a minority government in a confidence-and-supply arrangement with Fianna Fáil, or coalesce with them. Micheál Martin’s long-standing hatred of Irish republicans would suggest that the former is most likely – second fiddle is not an instrument Fianna Fáil like to play, and for once he would avoid having to go back on his word should they remain outside the cabinet.
A coalition with them would essentially deliver more of the same – having controlled the corridors of Leinster House for so long, they know how the game is played and who the major civil service players are, further applying the brakes to any notion of meaningful change.
By the simple virtue of being decent people with compassionate politics, the Social Democrats have continued to grow and they may find themselves holding some of the levers of power when the votes are counted over the weekend, putting them in the most dangerous position in Irish politics; with few exceptions, smaller parties in coalitions in Ireland get shafted, and they would be wise to consider their options before going into government with anyone.
Labour and the Greens – the Soc Dems predecessors in the progressive space – will continue to harvest the fruits of their disastrous coalition efforts, during which both parties sold out their principles for a seat at the table, and rightly so.
The petulance of Simon Harris, whose “new energy” was seemingly but a flash in the pan, could signal the end for the Posh Boys of Fine Gael and their thinly-veiled Thatcherism as Irish conservatism seeks to redefine itself.
The old-fashioned Christian right-wing views are no longer palatable to the vast majority of young voters, nor are the suits and snoots that haughtily profess their betterness to anyone who will listen.
The far right is still a crowded puddle sullied by the presence of the more extreme political turds, and thankfully, the stalking horse of Aontú aside, they are unlikely to make any big gains.
The few lines above illustrate how Irish political parties are very much not the same, and that is why your vote counts.
Taken in isolation, its effect is tiny, but together with other like-minded people, it can bring about a seismic change in Irish life, starting this weekend.
A vote for something other than 100 years of the same two parties playing musical chairs on Kildare Street would be a paradigm shift, a signal that the free market, tax avoidance and emigration are no longer enough to build a country on.
What the Irish centre-left is proposing is not radical in the least, but it is an appeal to the proclamation on which our state was founded – cherishing all its children equally, with the equality of treatment and opportunity that entails.
Whoever you vote for, right or left, say it with your whole chest.
Mark the ballot with conviction, and leave those elected in no doubt as to what you voted for.
Tell those looking for your trust exactly what you want, and then hold them to account for it. Wholesale change is needed, but either way we need to change how we hold those in power to account; it is no longer good enough to reign for years and then say “we failed, but the other crowd wouldn’t have done any better.”
That change doesn’t start with them.
It starts with you, this Friday.
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