Trump the Peacemaker: An Irish perspective
Whilst we can’t say for certain of course, it seems likely, that if Donald Trump had not been elected President in his first term (2017-2021), the war in Afghanistan would still be raging away. Either way, Trump’s decision to make peace with the Taliban, even allowing for those final shambolic days in Kabul (after he had left office), looks like the correct one.
With Afghanistan bagged and with his reported desire to acquire the Nobel Peace Prize, Trump boasts he’s now on a roll with 6 more wars also in the bag since he took office for a 2nd time in January 2025. As we know in Ireland with the GFA, the discussion about the fair allocation of credit for bringing about peace is often pockmarked by ideological argument and self-interest which is facilitated by the absolute necessity to keep certain facts secret and or diplomatically quiet.
For the record, the 6 wars allegedly ‘ended’ by Trump are Israel and Iran, the Democratic Republic of Congo and Rwanda, Cambodia and Thailand, India and Pakistan, Serbia and Kosovo and Egypt and Ethiopia. Given, the boul Donald’s well developed habit of being economical with the actualité and given the complexity of such conflicts – many such as the Guardian – treat Trump’s claim with considerable caution. (And his backing for Israel and the supply of weapons to them, given the disgraceful, indiscriminate manner in which Israel carries out the attacks on Gaza – makes him a party to the horrendous war crimes Israel has committed.)
Closer to home we have a few such examples of those bigging up their own role in our own Peace Process. Perhaps one of the best (worst) examples is the delight with which Berty Ahern has taken to traipsing round the country telling anyone who will listen to him, about his own key role in making Peace in the North in the shape of the GFA. In reality of course, Berty had to just hold on tight to the deal which landed fortuitously in his lap – whilst making a few soothing noises.
But back to Mr Trump…
Those concerned that he might actually land the Nobel Peace prize if he sorts out Ukraine should not fret unduly. The Nobel Peace committee must surely know that their committee will not survive with any credibility if they make such a cruel and grotesque decision as awarding Trump the prize – given that he is paymaster general and the main arms supplier for Israel’s onslaught on Gaza (whether that onslaught is technically defined as a genocide or not).
But being wrong about Israel and being such an allegedly deeply flawed character – and allegedly having done so many things that should have automatically disqualified him from office (e.g. trying to overturn the Presidential election result in 2021) doesn’t mean that he may not get it right on Ukraine. After all (apocryphally) Hitler built the Autobahns, Mussolini made the trains run on time and even De Valera…well perhaps Dev is the exception that proves the rule.
And as mentioned above, there is Trump’s success in Afghanistan – which shares some key similarities with Ukraine where we can cast the Taliban as the aggressors (albeit taking over their own country) and are viewed as pariahs (at least by the Western powers) just as the Russians are. You have to make peace with your enemies and that means talking to them – unless you commit to all out war – which no country in the West has any stomach for. So, of course there were howls of protest and outrage that Putin was invited and feted in Alaska whilst still bombing Ukraine. (Closer to home there were similar howls when Gerry was granted a US Visa – before the IRA ceasefire). Whilst Trump’s critics, which includes almost the entire Irish and British media (apologies to GB News who do pump out Trump Propaganda) seemingly can’t bring themselves to see past their distaste for Trump even if they suspect (perhaps fear) he does have at least some chance of stopping the Ukraine war. Where Biden feared to tread, Trump is not slow (as we saw in the White House debacle), in laying out the horrible political reality – that Ukraine doesn’t have the cards.
And talking, of the IRA ceasefire mentioned above… the Russians like the Provos are/were not averse to the concept of the Long War – a war required to right, as they see it, the historical wrongs committed against their country. For the Donbass – see Ulster (6 of 9). The Provos only called off their war against partition when they were offered a reasonable jumping off point – and the best chance for Peace in Ukraine is probably agreeing to something similar with Russia.
When and if this happens there will be those, understandably shouting about the appeasement of Putin just as, understandably, some/many Unionists (and the Right in Britain) shouted about the appeasement of the IRA in relation to the GFA. Luckily, others (including enough Unionists) saw it differently and rather than seeing (only) appeasement saw the necessity of taking risks for peace.
Deals are rarely based on fairness as the borders of the world illustrate (and as an Irish Nationalist I’m including Ireland in that). They are generally resolved on the basis of power. As Trump’s handbook on the Art of the Deal states (as if it was a hitherto unknown insight…), “The best thing you can do is deal from strength, and leverage is the biggest strength you can have.” No sh1t Donald. Given that the US of A, is in effect, the world’s banker, they can throw around as much dosh as they want to print – and thon’s pretty big leverage. If Trump applies his seemingly madcap tariffs policy to those countries buying Russian oil (India has bizarrely already been singled out for this) then Russia might really start to see the pressure at home – and start to talk.
As things stand the outline of a deal on Ukraine looks possible. Yes, perhaps rash words when dealing with Trump and Putin…
Ukrainian land, roughly all of the Donbass becoming Russian, no NATO membership for Ukraine and no NATO troops on the ground in Ukraine post settlement – may be enough – for Putin to take home and tell the Russian public it was all worth it – in spite of the tens (perhaps hundreds) of thousands of Russian war dead.
For Ukraine, the loss of land, as Nationalists know in Ireland with Ulster(6 of 9) will be extremely painful but with no country prepared to send troops to win back what Russia has already captured they would appear to have little choice but to accept the broad outline of a Peace deal which gives them security guarantees against another Russian attack in return for officially ceding territory.
Just as Trump can crowbar Russia into Peace talks with the threat of tariffs against those buying Russian oil so can the threat of reducing or withdrawing US arms and intelligence to Ukraine also force them to the negotiating table.
Of course, as with any Peace Process there will be many critical and extremely difficult issues to be ironed out. How close will any Yankee forces be (perhaps holed up in Poland) and how will NATO forces(with or without those Yankee forces) deliver Ukrainian security from outside Ukraine? Will Ukraine be ‘allowed’ to enter the EU? Will there need to be movement of people to reflect he new international borders and will Russia return those Ukrainian children who were in effect – kidnapped?
Peace will be messy and complicated and Peace deals don’t just win prizes but also have casualties…
And so back to Ireland…
David Trimble, the so-called heavy lifter in the GFA in partition settlement Number 2, was both prize winner and casualty as was Michael Collins after partition settlement Number 1. As so the person in the most vulnerable position after any deal, is often the person who has done the most to secure it. Zelenskyy has not only held the line in his own country but potentially also held the line for Western Europe against Russia. Whilst Trump is accused of appeasement, for what looks like offering a reasonable (in the circumstance) assessment of what a deal will realistically look like and how much money his country is prepared to spend on it – if Zelensky tries to sell any deal at home he may face the far more serious accusations of betrayal.
This could be Zelenskyy’s David Trimble/Michael Collins moment – being expected to sell, what many in his own country may think is a very bad deal and a sell out. Meanwhile, if there is proposed deal that offers Russia land, the contradictions in the European position of publicly opposing it, whilst expecting the Ukrainians to fight alone against it, may become stark.
To paraphrase the old expression – the Europeans maybe prepared to fight to the last drop of Ukraine’s blood.
…and it wouldn’t be a great look for the Europeans to look less realistic and dare I say it – less honest – than Mr Trump.
As we know in Ireland to our own cost, forced partition may not end well, not least for those politicians who agree to it, but ultimately the Ukrainian people may have to take that decision in a referendum and face the horrible unpalatable truth that the alternative is decidedly worse. Russia’s conduct during this war, so far, is considerably better than their track record suggests – not to mention considerably better than the way Israel is conducting hers. If the chance of Peace recedes and US support for Ukraine weakens – Russia might just adopt the British promise during negotiations on Irish partition in 1921, of a serious escalation of hostilities.
As to who, if anybody, is deserving of any Peace prizes on the basis of the war in Ukraine then Volodymyr Oleksandrovych Zelenskyy is obviously the outstanding candidate whilst Trump (for his handiwork in Israel) and Putin (for his handiwork in Ukraine) should, in an ideal world be heading to The Hague rather than Oslo.
We can but hope.
Sin é.
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