There is an old political rule that you should never interrupt your opponent while they are making a mistake. The DUP, however, appears determined to take things a step further: it is making the mistakes itself, then asking everyone else to admire the workmanship.

With the next Assembly election scheduled for 6 May 2027, the party has less than a year to stop the bleeding. And bleeding there certainly is. The latest LucidTalk figures put the DUP on just 15%, behind the UUP on 16% and only three points ahead of the TUV on 12%. That is a remarkable position for a party that once regarded its dominance of unionism as a political law of nature. 

The problem is not simply that voters are drifting away. It is that the DUP has repeatedly given them reasons to do so.

The party’s great political asset was always supposed to be discipline: a machine built for winning elections, defending its territory and presenting itself as the indispensable vehicle for unionist voters. Yet recent years have produced something closer to a political soap opera, complete with leadership upheavals, internal disagreements, public rows and the lingering fallout from the Jeffrey Donaldson scandal.

Every party has crises. The difference is that successful parties learn to close the door behind them. The DUP has sometimes appeared to leave the door open, put up a sign saying “Free Entry”, and wonder why the public keeps wandering in.

The danger is particularly acute because unionism is no longer a one-party marketplace. The UUP has discovered a pulse. The TUV remains a permanent irritant on the DUP’s right flank. And voters who once believed that supporting the DUP was simply the most effective way of keeping the unionist vote concentrated may now ask a rather awkward question: Why?

That question could be electorally lethal.

The latest polling analysis suggests that, if current figures were translated directly into Assembly seats, the DUP could fall dramatically from the 25 seats it won in 2022. One projection puts the party as low as 13.  That is not a minor correction. That is a political earthquake.

Of course, polls are not election results. The DUP has been here before. In 2022, it faced plenty of gloomy predictions and still emerged as the largest unionist party. Transfers, turnout, candidate strength and tactical voting can all change the final arithmetic under the STV system.

But that is precisely why the present situation should frighten the party.

The DUP’s problem is no longer simply losing voters. It is potentially losing its psychological dominance. Once voters believe a party can be beaten, they become much more willing to beat it.

And there is another uncomfortable possibility. If the DUP weakens sufficiently, unionist voters may begin shopping around rather than automatically returning to the familiar brand. The UUP can present itself as the respectable alternative. The TUV can present itself as the uncompromising alternative. Independents can present themselves as the alternative to alternatives altogether.

Meanwhile, the DUP is left trying to explain why everyone should rally behind the same party that has spent years demonstrating how badly divided unionism can become.

The irony is delicious.

The DUP spent decades warning unionists about the dangers of division. Now division may be one of the very things costing it most dearly.

Come May 2027, the party may discover that its greatest enemy was never Sinn Féin, the UUP or the TUV.

It was the mirror.

And elections have an unfortunate habit of turning mirrors into scoreboards.