Scotland – nice place or what? Lovely scenery, excellent whisky, one great football club. Oh yes – and a growing appetite for independence.
The latest poll indicates that, while still behind, the gap between those who’d say Yes to independence and those who’d say No has narrowed. Following the Scot Nats White Paper on independence, the Yes campaign shows a 6% rise while at the same time the No campaign shows a 6% drop. So now the gap which remained at some 20% for the past year and more, is now down to seven points.
Last week I found myself on BBC Radio Ulster/Raidio Uladh discussing this change. Ian Paisley Jr maintained the line which he expressed in an interview with me over a year ago: people here in the north of Ireland should be doing all they can to make sure that Scotland stays in the Union. That’s because the removal of Scotland from the Union would have a very ‘destabilising effect’ on the UK itself.
I think Ian Óg is right, although that ‘destabilising effect’ could be viewed as a hint at civil disorder, a la Ulster Covenant. But let’s assume it’s not and go back to the need for the rest of the UK to have their say in the Scottish independence debate. In our on-air discussion I pointed out that for the son of the former DUP leader to issue such advice was the proverbial double-edged sword. If the rest of the UK was to weigh in with its thruppence on the question of Scotland staying or going, shouldn’t the same apply to that other semi-detached part of the Union, Northern Ireland? And if such opinion were sought, doesn’t every unionist in his/her guts know that the answer they would get from the rest of the UK would be a resounding Yes, as in “Yes, pack your bags and get the hell out of here, you highly-expensive, half-mad shower of bloody paddies you”. OK, I didn’t put it as bluntly as that on-air but that in essence was my view. Ian Óg, on the other hand, thought the rest of the UK would be very positive towards the north and would rally to urge us to stay.
I’ll just attend to the cat now and leave you to tell me what you think.
They’d dump us via text message !
Back in 2012 the SNP commissioned pollsters YouGov to ask two questions. The first was: “How much trust, if any, do you have in the UK Government in Westminster to take the right decisions for Scotland?” Secondly, pollsters asked: “To what extent do you agree or disagree with the statement: It is better for Scotland to be part of the United Kingdom when there is a Conservative government in Westminster?”.Seven out of Ten Scots do not trust Westminster to make the right decisions for Scotland. And only Two out of Ten Scots think it is better for Scotland to be part of the UK when the Tories are in charge.
Ian Jnr knows only too well what the outcome of any Britain based ref on our wee colony would be ‘pack your bags and clear off’ and his admission that a scots exit would leave NI seriously out on the ledge. With chill winds blowing from the ‘mainland’ towards us, along with the unwelcome [to unionist ears here], views expressed by Scottish and English audiences at TV debates during the campaign. Nationalist tails would be up as Ian well knows, not just SF ones and Gregory must be dreading the prospect as well, as he can’t bring himself to acknowledge the gaelic meaning of his surname so evident in his facial features. Lemons are redundant here.
Never mind, when Scotland votes for independence in a few months time at least NI can look forward to Trident being moved there
Jude : change is never the problem.It’s how it’s dealt with in the end.People like young Ian always jump on the negative aspect of change. Their glass is always half-empty. Nobody knows how a leap in the dark will work out in the end for Scotland, but Paisley is not really worrying about our Scots neighbours and how they’ll fare in a brave new future…if that’s what they want to do.With him it’s how the republicans and nationalists back home will benefit if the Scotsmen decide to go it alone.We all know that if the republicans get something their way ,the unionists somehow lose something. That’s the current level of thinking below decks.
That wouldn’t be so bad if we could treat it as a game of politics..an intellectual challenge ,even.Let’s all see how we can manage this brave new world.How will it impact on the man in the street. The problem is that every time there ‘s any change talked up that somehow effects Northern Ireland ,there’s a veiled threat of violence somewhere, somehow , which the hairs on your back obviously sensed, Jude.Your radar is spot-on. It’s hardly surprising given the unionist track record that they’ll form militias at the drop of a flag and churn out inclement rhetoric which stirs up the blood of their less -restrained followers.
They’ve shown by word and deed throughout the ages that that is the course they will eventually follow even though they pretend a form of democracy prior to any violent actions. Before you know it there’ll be a new no Home Rule campaign. Even in these enlightened times we’ll have a home Rule is Rome Rule campaign. The usual bogey men will be trotted out to frighten the horses and unionist MPs will go to Scotland en masse to cajole and threaten their neighbours that it is all some kind of devilish plot. Believe me , so far democracy usually ends when they lose a vote or if someone comes up with a new idea.It was ever thus…..
The only British people who would support `the north` staying in the so called UK are empire loyalists, little Englanders and the like. As Gerry Adams said last night, the empire is gone, this is IT. After we finally get our freedom it will be up to the good people of the Isle of Man to put the final bullet into perfidious Albion. Metaphorically speaking of course.
Ian Paisley Jnr really is deluding himself if he thinks for one second that the normal, hardworking English/welsh/Scottish people would agree and urge NI to stay in the Union. In fact I think the only people in Britain to support NI in the Union would be BNP and National Front type characters who still believe in British imperialism, something that went extinct decades ago (thank god).
As for Scotland, I believe the thirst amongst Scottish people for independence is bigger than the polls show, it will definitely be a tight race when it comes to the referendum in September.
Do I think the likes of other people in the UK can convince Scots to stay within the Union? (even though many English want Scotland to go independent) No.
Do I think Ulster Unionists and Ian Paisley Jnr can convince Scots to stay within the Union? No, I think Ian and his mates would actually convince (unintentionally of course) many of Scots to LEAVE the Union, instead of staying in it.
Ryan.
Ryan. Your last paragraph is instructive. I agree that scots in the NO campaign will tell unionists privately or even in debates that they’re not wanted by them, and Ian jnr knows too well which is why I believe unionists will stay away and reveal to all why they’re political poison in Britain. Should be entertaining debates.