After one look at this morning’s poll headlines, the Scottish No-camp are in a red-alert panic. Emitting high-pitched noises, they’re galloping madly in six directions at once to tell the Scottish people that honest, hand on heart, we’ll give you everything you need AND the cover union with Britain offers if you’ll only say No on 18 September, oh please please please won’t you say No? For the first time – and nice timing it was, like a runner who’s been behind suddenly surging on the last bend – an important poll, the YouGov one, has declared the Yes side in the lead by 51% to 49%. Eeeek – it really could happen! Call in the big guns like Will Hutton in the Observer and Gordon Brown in the House of Commons. Make a speech, pass a motion, make a promise, for Chrissake save the union! Somebody, everybody, anybody!
In a way you can sympathise with how awful they must feel. When you’ve been coasting with a lovely in-the-lead margin for month after month, and now this! As that fine Scottish unionist Alex Ferguson memorably remarked: it’s squeaky-bum time.
And keep that sports analogy in mind. Last weekend was indeed a memorable one in the GAA, not least for Mayo supporters when the referee made two really bad decisions that probably cost them a place in the All-Ireland final. But it was the Donegal-Dublin game that is the better parallel for what appears to be happening in Scotland. For a time it looked totally conclusive – the bustling, lightning-fast Dublin team was going to out-pass and out-point and out-think the Donegal men. Then against all the odds – the bookies had Donegal at 10-1 to win – Donegal took the game by the scruff of the neck and blew Dublin off the pitch.
Ditto in Scotland. For so long it seemed that the Yes camp were chasing a romantic dream. Polls showed the No camp as 10/15/20% ahead. Alex Salmond flopped in his first TV debate. It was all over bar the shouting. Now this: with around twelve days to go, the Yes camp are inching ahead of the Better-Together lot. What seemed impossible for so long now looks distinctly possible.
The No camp will send in big hitters, make cartloads of promises, just as Dublin sent on substitutes and tried every tactic conceivable to hold back this unforeseen tsunami.
Of course the only poll that really counts is the one on Referendum Day. The day before the vote, the Orange Order has promised a huge march to show how much they want to keep the Union. If that doesn’t clinch it for the Yes camp, nothing will.
And if it does clinch things and Scotland opts for Yes, the UK will be shaken to its core. All sorts of rethinks will be required. What about the North-East and North-West of England, where many consider London a foreign place? What about groups like the Catalans and the Basques – will they not demand the same right to secession? What about Wales – will it say that what’s good for the thistle is good for the leek? And what about the North-East of Ireland: what will it do if it’s left clinging to the cracked mast and leaking hull of what once was Great Britain?
It’s true what they say: we live in interesting times.
Thon Scottish play has a wee lot to say
Aboot nowt becomes S. like leaving UK
But if Scotland says ‘Noh!’
Light thickens and no crow
Makes wing to the rooky wood of breakaway.
Probably end up with a very close referendum result though I still predict a marginal victory for the better together – No campaign and thereafter we will be hearing about ‘devolution – Max’ a lot over the coming weeks
Hope you all like the wee tune here
http://eurofree3.wordpress.com/2014/09/06/uk-ok-campaign-screwed-up-yes-leads-the-poll/
The attitude of the Tories in the South East to the idea that the Scottish have the temerity of expressing an opinion which is different to their own is akin to the residents of Downton Abbey being shocked to hear that the servants have complained about eating gruel!
The proverb states that you should not bite the hand that feeds you. Szasz suggested you should if it prevents you from feeding yourself.
The Union is hanging on by a thread and even if Scotland votes No to Independence the Yes Campaigners are already planning to have another referendum in 5 years time. Whether its coming from Scotland or the North East of Ireland, the Union is under attack and it simply wont last much longer.
Its squeaky bum time for Unionism, especially those Unionists living in the North East of Ireland.
Jude
Or like a last minute comeback in Budapest eh?
Indeed, the times they are a’changing as Bobby Darin used to sing.
It is hard to escape the conclusion that we might easily have been in the same position by now were it not for 30 years of futile bombing bullets and mayhem.
That’s an interesting take on things, gio – not one supported by history mind you but interesting. But yes, I looove last-minute comebacks. But it was Bob Dylan, not Bobby Darin.
We were in a very similar position in 1918 when the vast majority voted yes to independence but alas out great British friends gave us the black & Tans and partition instead. That won’t happen with Scotland in the 21st century obviously.
I can see why the British government are frightened. If Scotland votes Yes Cameron will be forever remembered as the Prime Minister who lost Scotland. Not a good legacy for a PM of Scottish descent. They will be asking what he could have done differently. They will be questioning the Austerity policy, his refusal to have a live debate ect.