Something’s happening in Scotland. And maybe Ireland.

Is something happening in Scotland? In Ireland? The historian Roy Foster believes there is, at least in Scotland. In his new book Vivid Faces (a phrase from Yeats’s famous poem ‘Easter 1916’), he argues that something profound has happened in the build-up to and the aftermath of the Scottish referendum. Despite the fact that their cause  of Scottish independence was clearly defeated in the recent national poll, Scottish nationalism is on the rise, not decline. Since the referendum the membership of the Scottish National party has trebled.  The age group with the highest Yes figures in the country, according to Foster, were young people – 35 and under. There is a mood of deep dissatisfaction in the country and an impatience with the old parties particularly, he says, the Labour party…Whoa there. If there’s a national rejection in the next Westminster election and Scottish Conservatives continue to be outnumbered by pandas north of the border (They’ve got one MP, Virginia, and no, he’s not a panda), there’s really going to be a political earthquake in Scotland come the next Westminster election.

Foster, as his book title suggests, sees similarities between Ireland in the second decade of  the twentieth century and Scotland today. The leaders of the Easter Rising and the subsequent struggle for independence were astonishingly young – Michael Collins was thirty-one  when he died. What’s more they were educated, some of them writers and poets, men and women  who had no time for the old ways of politics as exemplified by John Redmond and his party. So too, as Foster sees it, the upheaval in Scotland is being led by men and women who could have comfortable lives as teachers or doctors or in other professions, but who see their country in vividly different terms from the old established parties. Foster is not suggesting that Scotland will turn to violence as a response, but he believes the mood is equally impatient with the old ways.

He doesn’t dwell on Irish politics today, which is a pity, because there are changes happening here with equally profound implications. Republicans, after a violent struggle against British rule,  have turned to democratic politics, and against all expectation they have been frighteningly successful. What their enemies would describe as sell-out in the north is for them the relentless hollowing out of the old Orange state.  Sinn Féin is now the undisputed voice of Irish nationalism in the north; many believe it is only a matter of time before a republican becomes First Minister there.

But it is in the south that change in recent years has been most striking. Despite the fact that the party suffers from very few second preference votes, it has gone from nowhere to ranking just about equal with the biggest parties in the state. Needless to say the old parties have noted this and have used every trick in the book to discredit their republican opponents. Since they cannot fault them for their political involvement today, Fianna Fail, Fine Gael and Labour have all kept pointing to the violent past of northern republicanism. They also know a charismatic leader when they see one. It is no accident that campaign after campaign has been used against Gerry Adams, down to and including his arrest on the eve of European and local elections.  Time after time figures who have genuinely suffered at republican hands during the conflict or say they have suffered are marched from TV camera to TV camera, from studio to studio, in the hope that this will inoculate the electorate against this new and radical force. So far all efforts have been in vain.