Well. Just when you thought the Stormont waters had smoothed out, suddenly it’s the Jaws theme and everyone is very, very tense. Sammy Wilson was on BBC Radio Ulster/Raidio Uladh at lunchtime and was calling Martin McGuinness a liar, or something very like it. Martin McGuinness for his part is clearly very pissed off at being left sitting in Stormont for a meeting with the DUP, which was to have finalised who would be protected from Tory cuts and who would not. So what can we take from all this? Well, a few things.
1. The DUP are now talking about the Stormont House Agreement in very different terms than they were until now. Before today, DUP politicians were talking of Sinn Féin finally having seen the light and accepted the ‘Welfare Reforms’. Now they are talking in very specific terms about how much money has been made available to protect various vulnerable groups. In short, they’re telling the world that the Stormont House Agreement was not simply a matter of agreeing to push through Tory hardship onto defenceless people, but that there were considerable sums available to protect those most in need of protection.
2. Sinn Féin is an all-Ireland party. Their political opponents in the south who were accusing them of implementing welfare cuts in the north have now had it made clear to them – by the DUP – that every effort has been made – by both the DUP and Sinn Féin – to lessen the impact of these cuts.
3. I suspect that No 2 above may have been part of Sinn Féin’s strategy – to have their political opponents in the north make clear to their political opponents in the south that they, Sinn Féin, are totally opposed to cuts which damage the most vulnerable. If it was their strategy, it’s worked.
4. We’re told that if the welfare cuts are not implemented, the Stormont House Agreement is in ruins and that the entire political edifice of Stormont is due to collapse. That’s probably a logical argument. But the difference in reaction to this prospect is noticeable. DUP politicians appear taken aback and are very anxious that what they say were the agreements made in the Stormont House negotiations be carried out. Sinn Féin, while looking sombre – and in McGuinness’s case, angry – looks like a party that is far from panicking. I’d caution that that’s just my reading of what I’ve heard and seen today in the media. You may conclude differently.
5. As is always the case with any prediction I make, since I’m so bad at them, what follows carries a health warning: I don’t think the structures at Stormont will collapse. I suspect that both unionists and republicans don’t want that to happen, and if that’s the case, they’ll find a way.
6. Finally, a question: what does the ‘collapse of Stormont’ mean? Does it mean direct rule from Britain, with the permanent closure of Stormont? Does it mean a collapse of the Stormont Executive, to be followed by an election to a new Stormont? If it means the former – direct rule from Britain – it’ll be contrary to Sinn Féin strategy up to this point. On the other hand, if it means a Stormont election, do you think it could have come at a better time for Sinn Féin. Fresh from their Ard Fheis, pumped up by the prospect of being the lead party in government in the south and maybe, just maybe, in the north also?
In the aftermath of the Sinn Féin Ard Fheis on Saturday, I was talking to someone who noted we live in interesting times. Two days later, those times have become less interesting and more riveting.
I suspect what happened was that SF didn’t fully understand what they had signed up to in the Stormont deal did the DUP at anytime say all the vulnerable would be looked after? Watch spotlight and listen to what the DUP said on this issue if SF welch on this deal I am not sure how any trust can be rebuilt anytime soon
You may be right, neill. Or then again, wrong. As to the Shinners ‘welshing’ on the deal (I try to avoid that word since being pulled up by a Welshman) and thus no longer trustworthy: how much trust have unionist politicians shown since the GFA?
It seems Mervyn Storey’s department is involved in not giving the guarantees that Sinn Fein require as a sign of DUP good faith.
Mervyn Storey is also the minister responsible for supplying the complete report into the Stephen Brimstone inquiry. Is there a connection?
The committee demanding that complete report, led by Alex Maskey, are curious to know what Brimstone’s part in the Red Sky debacle actually was, and his minister at the time was Nelson McCausland whose behaviour is also under scrutiny.
The cynic in me thinks that, to save McCausland’s political skin, and maybe others higher up in the DUP, they may consider it worthwhile getting their revenge against Sinn Fein in first.
They know there will be fall-out, but they are prepared to risk whatever comes, and blame it on Sinn Fein.
Accrding to today’s radio they may receive Alliance support, at least that of Stewart Dickson, whose intemperate outburst seemed somewhat out of character.
So we may now find ourselves in another poker game and it will be interesting to see who blinks first.
Crisis or crises?
In April 2014 the former Chief Constable refused to accept a High Court ruling on illegal marches. In March 2015, the Assistant Chief Constable said the PSNI “did not accept criticism of a senior officer by the Police Ombudsman.” A spokesman for the PUP stated, without a shred of evidence, that loyalists are being “hunted like dogs” and the Orange Order is organising protests in relation to contentious marches. Now throw into the mix, planned industrial action by workers who have been left with no choice but to withdraw their labour given the euphemism, welfare reform. This comes at a time when job losses in West Belfast mean jobs being transferred to England.
It is the people who have to work for a living, the young, older people and individuals with disabilities who will bear the brunt of the cuts proposed by a group of millionaires in London. It is important that the real implications of welfare cuts are exposed and challenged. To date the Tories have no electoral mandate from the north of Ireland. Trade Unionists have a mandate for industrial action given the real threat to jobs and working conditions. It is now being left to Trade Unionists to negotiate a better deal for members given the dysfunctional and expensive system that passes for politics in Stormont.
Sorry you mean “Welching” no relation to the Welsh!
The same could be said about Nationalists and Republicans since the GFA?
That wasn’t how my Welshman saw things…Nor for that matter either of my two dictionaries – both tell me ‘welsh’ is the preferred spelling…For a minute there I nearly thought you were smart, Neill…
Well Jude….let’s see….welshing…welching and i’ve even discovered someone who likes to call it .. “whelching”…..oh what a web ….etc…..Apparently it has some Welsh form in that
it was a term applied to people who fled to Wales, not the Welsh people themselves …per se who are undoubtedly as upright and upstanding ancient race as ever drew a breadth of breath . If you were a Welsher, you were one of them there nasty Britons who escaped to Wales to flee your debt and avoid the debtors prison. Well ….so it seems …Something like a reneger then , like when Peter sent that summer missive from Florida about the Maze prison….!!
Then you must be reading a 99p dictionary or perhaps Americans are stupid as well!
One from either side of the Atlantic, actually, neill.
That’s rather a sweeping statement regarding Americans neill (beside the point that a rather significant proportion of them having never held a passport, or left the U.S.)
On a different note, i haven’t heard much of Peter Robinson fighting the corner for those in the North who are suffering hardships, brought about by the Tory Party and the stubbornness of the DUP – but then again, how would he understand or fathom austerity, when himself and the venerable Mrs.Robinson own a quite a spread of a residence in Florida.
A timely moment in t., Esteemed Blogmeister and one’s former Mr. Squelch, to tease out the difference, if such there be, between ‘welsh’ and ‘welch’.
One is reminded of the consumer tip which Percy French thoughtfully appended to his first big hit, ‘Abdul Abulbul Amir’. When’ Ivan Skavinsky Svar’ is first mentioned in the ballad which curiously seems to have pre-empted many contemporary ding dongs it comes with the following household advice in brackets: (best pronounced with a sneeze).
Ditto with ‘welsh’ and ‘welch’: one suspects the difference (if such there be) is best emphasised by one or the other being pronounced with a, erm, belch.
One mentioned the timeliness of this attention-drawing because, of course, we are now (down here in the Free Southern Stateen, not too sure about Norneverland) about to enter the week of the greatest Welsh bhoyo of them all, St. Patrick.
This is also the week of the I’d’s of March which is not at all to be confused with the Ides of March which has Roman connotations which the Cathedral of St. Patrick does not. At least the one in Dublin.
This funny I’d’s of March term is beginning to cotton on more and more, year on year, like a bunny rabbit’s tail.. Everywhere one goes these lead-up days through Dublin’s streets so narrow made famous by the broad called Molly Malone, she of the wheelbarrow, one can hear the plaintive cry: ‘I’d love to be able to speak even a few words of leprechaun’.
To which is invariably added: ‘But I had it (sob) beaten out of me by eleven years of mandatory compulsion at school’.
And so the leprechaun’s lament will be endured till after The Big Day when it will be tucked away neatly for another year. Ah, the fighting Oirish.
Mind you, they weren’t in very pugilistic mood in the country of origin of welsh over the weekend, Wales. The four prubs (a portmaneau word combining club and province, which won out after a secret ballot over clubovince) were over to Paddy’s green and leeky shores and where all were duly thrashed, 1,2,3,4: Un, Dwy, Tair, Pedwar.
And in the process gave the diffident, detached Free Southern Stateen’s sports hackitariat an utterly unexpected op to demonstrate the meaning of ‘to welsh/ welch’ on this morning’s sports bulletins, definitively.
In the Friday preview they all vied with each to outdo the other in their choice of bloated, bubble-wrap adjectives. Yes, those exercises in earnestness, so beloved of the rugga commentariat to attach to the IMPORTANCE of the four forthcoming weekend gamesof the Pro 12 league in the cyms of the Principality: huge, massive, enormous, and yes, massive.(They like that m-word).
Each unbiased outlet, sans exception, modestly forecast an Oirish whitewash.
When things did not quite pan out that way, the result on this Monday Morning was, instead of the anticipated Tarzan-like take on the four-beat victory cry of the bull ape (‘Nee-yah-yah-yah !’) at the top of all sports bulletins, was, erm, a whisper of an afterthought at the very bottom of the results, some distance after the croquet championships.
This, in any man’s dictionary, is a definition of ‘to welsh’ or even ‘to welch’.
The Welsh Rarebit/ Rabbit (what’s the difference ?) really riled Connacht’s newest Folk Hero, one Pat Lam, and caused three wags of his incensed tail. (Pat Lam is not to be confused with his fellow Corribean, Pat Rabbit though the confusion is fathomable, given the latter’s tendency to carrot-munching rants).
One cannot conclude without referencing The Unionist Times’ unique foreplay on the diving board to St. Patryk’s Day-o. This letter appeared in the Litter Bin page a couple of days ago with the following uproarious Lam-like line:
‘This Clause of the Constitution, along with Article 8, is what makes Irish the first language of the State and marks the first festishisation of the Irish language which was to become one of the many sacred cows and walls of political cant that have virtually unchallenged since the foundation of the State’.
Hymmm.
But the real kicker is the name and address of the depositor in the Litter Bin: one, Barry Walsh, Clontarf, Dublin.
Apart from Walsh being a Paddy (!) spelling of the original Welsh/Welch the de rigeur reference to ‘sacred cows’ finds a suitable echo in the address, ‘Clontarf/ Cluain Tarbh – the meadow of the bull’.
Plop !
PS One wonders what Fintan O’Toole’s fine Fine G mind will make of this reference to the f-word. One looks forward, indeed, to FOT on Fetishisation.
Will Welsh be made compulsory in the annual run-up to St. Patty’s Day? Or, will we, the fighting Oirish, erm, welsh again? Or even, welch?
Quite simple….DUP fearing the river flowing that is Sinn Féin! They are scrambling for their political lives, big salaries while trying to galvanise the rusting bucket that is the union.
Nice one Gav.
Jude, it’s difficult to imagine, as Neil suggests, that Sinn Fein didn’t fully understand what they signed up to. I’ll be charitable and call that insulting. But sure, plus ca change etc. The issue appears to be in regard to monies set aside for future deserving welfare claimants. Could Sinn Fein have missed this issue? The 560 million top up will really just protect the present needy and vulnerable. Some redacting of the Stormont house agreement may be necessary and sure Unionism could scarcely oppose that?!
Sinn Fein are a lot of things to Unionists but I think one thing that Unionists, those with more than half a brain, would not call Sinn Fein and that is “stupid”. They’re far from it. “Stupid” is out protesting over a flag being restricted to designated days and setting up an illegal camp costing £15 million (so far) because the Orange Order threw a tantrum about not getting their return parade.
On this issue I think there has been some deceit on behalf of the DUP and the Tories. Sinn Fein are obviously not getting exactly what they thought they were signing up to and lets be honest, are we surprised? The Tories, the DUP and not to mention a Fine Gael Taoiseach are hardly the most trusting people on the planet, especially if your a Republican, never mind a Shinner.
Neill, you’re a laugh a minute. You really don’t understand Sinn Fein if you think that they have not covered every possible angle. In my humble opinion they have probably got the best set of negotiators of any political party in these islands.
While I have you to hand Neill, I notice you never reply when I call you out on your more sweeping statements. One of the more recent was on March 2 after you posted the following: ”Now at least we can see how far SF`s policy of reconciliation stretches to which I am sure has surprised very few people still what else would you expect from a party that has convicted criminals and those who allow rape and child abuse at the very top of the leadership chain?”
All I can say Neill, is that if you want to be taken seriously, you will have to give a little more thought before making your comments public.
Oh your quite a gag alright!
Neill, you’re a laugh a minute. You really don’t understand Sinn Fein if you think that they have not covered every possible angle. In my humble opinion they have probably got the best set of negotiators of any political party in these islands.
One only has to look at previous talks to see that is clearly untrue remember no Stormont not a bullet etc however if you want to fly in the face of this to keep you happy what can I do?
”Now at least we can see how far SF`s policy of reconciliation stretches to which I am sure has surprised very few people still what else would you expect from a party that has convicted criminals and those who allow rape and child abuse at the very top of the leadership chain?”
What part of that statement is untrue indeed didnt your party leader move his brother south of the border even after he was aware what he was up to?
If you want you can be a drone all you want however i see SF as they are. They thought they had negoitated a great deal however when they looked at the numbers…still i am quite sure you can trust them on the economy afterall they have obviously got a great grasp of numbers.
Oh by the way James Northern Ireland exists just go to any map you will see it plainly.
“During the Stormont house negotiations Sinn Fein ensured that the poorest and most vulnerable members of our society were protected from the tory welfare cuts” to quote Mr B Storey
I am sure most people on here know Mr Storey is and what position he holds in SF
That being the case why have they withdrawn support from the Welfare Bill afterall dont Sinn Fein have the best negotiators in Ireland dont they look at all the percentages dont they?
Face it folks when even Alliance say SF are being cynical or stupid you know you are in trouble oh hang Alliance are unionists arnt they?
Sinn Fein need to stand fast on welfare reform. And the naysayers need to remember that, the poor and the vulnerable, reside right across our communities.
Stand fast on welfare payments with what currency? What funds? From what real, tangible source will SF procure funding? Veto all you wish, then what Jude?
What’s the alternative to Devolution apart from Direct Rule?
Well I remember Ian Paisley Snr made it very clear what was the alternative to Devolution in 2007 when he was being interviewed by Stephen Nolan on his TV Show. Paisley had just gone into Government with Sinn Fein, which made the likes of Jim Allister quit the DUP and set up his own party. Why did he, Paisley, do this? Well to cut a long story short Paisley said he was threatened by the SoS Peter Hain and also by the Irish Government that Joint rule was to be set up between Belfast and Dublin, what paisley called a “Plan B” if the DUP didn’t go into Government with Sinn Fein
The youtube video of the interview can be seen here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pumM9jcVTqM
Could that still be an alternative today? I wouldn’t rule it out…..
The Stormont Castle Agreement says £564m, page 22
http://issuu.com/jpni8/docs/stormont_castle_agreement
The DUP says £150m
https://twitter.com/duponline/status/575076089795473409
Draw your own conclusions
Apologies, the DUP says £125m, a £439m difference
Morpheus
Still slumming it til the slugger ban expires then?
The figure you show is interesting. On the face of it the DUP must have been aware of it.
When did the 2 parties or the OFM and DFM sit down and say
“something wrong here we need to get this clear”
Sinn Fein must have known that the DUP were saying something quite different to them.
In the interests of their constituents on benefits they ought to have been setting aside party oneupmanship to resolve what was clearly an outstanding issue in the agreement.
It looks like both parties were making selfish calculations here and to hell with the people affected.
Now it’s back to the blame game.
‘Slumming’, Gio? I’ll have you know this is a gilded palace of thought. With one or two exceptions, of course…
Jude
Quite true of course. Only messing.
Cough cough….speaking of gilded palaces of thought hope you haven’t pinched that photograph of our deputy leader?
Oh now neill – that would be telling…
The Slugger ban is permanent but trust me when I say it’s no skin off my nose – if the coward with the Napoleon complex is only interested in surrounding himself with a choir of nodding Churchill dogs who will only offer an unchallenging “oh yes yes yes” to whatever is deemed worth of comment today then so be it. He has been upset since I handed him his ass on the OTR “saga” as he hoped that would be the smoking gun. Evidently not. The ban is a shame but I haven’t and won’t lose any sleep over it. 🙂
Back to the thread, the infuriating thing in this is that the Shinners don’t have a spokesperson who is capable of standing up and giving a clear, concise answer as to what the hell is going on. From the above it looks like they agreed to £125m but of they are saying now that that figure was always just a placeholder until they got the real figure from DSD then that should have been made very clear. If they were assured that £125m would be sufficient to cover everything they wanted then they need to back it up. If it was a verbal agreement then it would have been made in front of 4 other parties,one of whom should have the integrity and honestly to back it up. If it was a secret backroom deal, then they fecked up and need to learn the lesson.
My opinion: they tried to be clever gits by trying to give assurances that no one would “adversely affected” If they meant that no one would be “adversely effect because of benefits under the control of Stormont” then they should have made that VERY clear because the media is only focusing on the first part. Tax credits for example were cut from Westminster so would not come under their ‘trying to be a clever git’ promise but that’s not what the media are running with.
Sorry Neill, I will have to pull you up again. You still have not answered my question with regard to the contribution of the unionist element of our society. I quote from your original post on March 2 as follows:”Now at least we can see how far SF`s policy of reconciliation stretches to” Tell me again Neill, I may have overlooked it, but what exactly have the unionists done to bridge the gap between our communities. Give me even one instance where they have willingly done so.
On the question of the existence of ‘northern ireland’ even a child can draws a line on a map (colouring book and crayons come to mind). You see Neill, it’s what is in the mind that counts, artificial lines are just that, artificial lines. The Republic is coming Neill, embrace it with the rest of your fellow Irishmen..
On the question of the existence of ‘northern ireland’ even a child can draws a line on a map (colouring book and crayons come to mind). You see Neill, it’s what is in the mind that counts, artificial lines are just that, artificial lines. The Republic is coming Neill, embrace it with the rest of your fellow Irishmen..
How can you have a normal debate with somebody who doesn’t accept facts? If you are married God help your poor wife I can picture the scene now Jamesie tidy up the kitchen aw na missus tidiness is just a state of mind.
Tell me again Neill, I may have overlooked it, but what exactly have the unionists done to bridge the gap between our communities. Give me even one instance where they have willingly done so.
Nothing at all at which is at least honest unlike sf who make a big fuss on reconciliation but fall at the first hurdle!
Good luck James, Neill never answers questions. I posed a similar question and never got a response.
The problem with Unionists is the sense of entitlement, they perceive that they are always right. Croppy lie down Etc..!
“Sure Ulster was a barron land with no one living here when the planters came, certainly no one had their land stolen or was murdered or discriminated against”
They cannot for one moment consider that the RUC / UDR / UDA / OO (add another anacronym of choice) are perceived by most Nationalists as terrorists.
There is no such thing as Unionist outreach………… other than to punch!
The problem with Unionists is the sense of entitlement, they perceive that they are always right. Croppy lie down Etc..!
I only get bored with you being wrong all the time….
“Sure Ulster was a barron land with no one living here when the planters came, certainly no one had their land stolen or was murdered or discriminated against”
Tell you what shall we ask the citizens of the United States to hand back land taken from the Native Americans?
They cannot for one moment consider that the RUC / UDR / UDA / OO (add another anacronym of choice) are perceived by most Nationalists as terrorists.
You can perceive all you want i could equally state that all supporters of SF agreed with the violence directed at their protestant neighbours that however doesnt make it so does it?
There is no such thing as Unionist outreach………… other than to punch!
Never felt the need to punch anybody i believe in non violence oh if only republicans had felt the same way!
Dr Michael Hfuhruhurr saying unionists are doomed doesnt make it so!
Dont you feel any remorse that the party you support moved child abusers and rapists around the country doesnt play on you at all?
Just for the record, neill – when you say ‘the country’, do you mean Ireland or is it Nolanspeak?
Good spot Jude no flies on you!
I meant of course the Republic of Ireland or the stolen 26 counties….
To be considered a country, an entity must have the ability to collect taxes and prosecute war. To refer to Northern Ireland as a country is patently absurd. Sure don’t Unionists call it a province or thee province? It’s not even that. At best it’s a statelet. I think that’s agreed upon by all but wee dafties ( as Ulster Scots would say).
Its all part of the British sense of Empire. They are not countries nor considered as such outside the UK. Its a purely British thing.
I recall a flegger on fleggervision (Nolan) saying “but we have our own football team” …… It was at that point I had to leave the room as I feared I would wet myself from laughing.
“At Stormont House the five parties agreed a series of
measures to protect the vulnerable and safeguard current and
future welfare claimants under the control of the executive.
“As the papers contained in this dossier demonstrate the DUP
acted in bad faith in December and since. This bad faith
involved withholding important information prepared by
DSD officials from Sinn Féin. The only reason for
withholding this information was to mislead and in so doing
to allow the DUP to artificially deflate the funding necessary
for the Supplementary Payment Fund.
“That is totally unacceptable. If the DUP want to strip
benefits from children with disabilities, from adults with
severe disabilities, the long-term sick; or push children
further into poverty, then they need to explain and justify
that. Sinn Féin certainly will not accept that approach.”
http://www.sinnfein.ie/files/2015/Welfare_the_facts_SF1.pdf