Yet another comment on the blog has got me thinking.
This time it was over unionist unity and a single block party forming. I would at first consider that to be as likely as Sinn Fein and Fianna Fail merging, but on deeper reflection, it made perfect sense.
The relationship between Britain and Ireland is better than ever, at least southern Ireland anyway, the north still being an embarrassing blight on both the UK and Ireland. The royal family have always had a fond relationship with Ireland which in recent times has been successfully re-established, which I think is great. Dublin was always considered the second city of the empire after London by the royal family who have an affectionate affinity with our island if not always our people.
Thankfully, the new relationship with Ireland, thanks to the brave men and women who fought for its freedom, is one of mutual respect, for the first time in our history. We are a nation of equals and it is time to repair the old animosities; our old enemy should become our closest ally. And that would be easy if it weren’t for the separatists in the north for whom the old animosities are considered to be a part of their culture.
We can see the relationship that is so keen to blossom. An example: the queen dressed in green and spoke in Irish during her visit. She even laid a wreath at the Garden of Remembrance which commemorates the brave Irish freedom fighters from the United Irishmen, Robert Emmet, Young Ireland, the Fenian Brotherhood, the Easter Rising and even the Irish Republican Army in the War of Independence.
Fine Gael have been doing their best (or worst) to make the south a unionist-friendly place: their control of the media has been relentless and mindlessly scathing against Sinn Fein, bordering on paranoia. A single unionist block in coalition with Fine Gael would certainly take control over all of Ireland. The unionist divisions and certainly the Orange Order would be difficulties to be overcome, but their right-wing views would be natural allies, more so than Labour in the Republic who will be used by Fine Gael in the meantime to make up the numbers.
The reunification process is most certainly well underway and one of the unionist parties at least is very well aware of it.
The DUP have undergone significant changes over the last while. As unionism approached their electoral peak, as best we can tell from demographic statistics at least, the daggers came out and big Ian took them all in his ample back. Peter was able to step up and after a few storms, managed to sail through the best times the DUP have ever had, and was able to step down on his own terms , with the fate of unionist control in Ireland no longer his responsibility. “It didn’t happen on my watch” he can now safely say in retirement. Dodds turned down the leadership and will most likely follow Peter and step aside altogether in the near future.
With an ex-UUP member now at the helm, a woman and non-Presbyterian, has the most bigoted party on these islands with 34% of their membership also members of the most sectarian organisation on these islands, turned over a very green leaf? Are they aware of the direction unionism must go?
With Mike Nesbitt hot on their heels, desperate to revive the fortunes of his beloved Official Unionist Party, the party that gave us British separatism and through whom paramilitarism was first introduced to Ireland through the UVF, to back up their threats of violence if Ulster wasn’t excluded from Home Rule.
Will the two parties merge?
Who would be the party to give way?
Would either be prepared to give way to the other?
Whatever we make think of them, the DUP may be a party filled with bigots, but they are an honest bunch of bigots and sometimes they say it is better the devil you know. Mike Nesbitt on the other hand is a much more devious character. Cold, calculating, manipulative, with years of public performance under his belt, his ruthlessness and absolute determination to see the UUP take their rightful place once again will, I suspect be more than the DUP will be able to deal with.
If there is going to be a winner, I think my money would be on the UUP.
They could well take a significant chunk out of the DUPs votes this year, but by the next elections I expect the DUP could well be following the SDLP on the road to political oblivion.
The UUP may be on the wrong side of history, but the DUP have been on the wrong side of decency and may have over curried their yoghurt with the stench of power sharing just too much for them to bear.
The UUP may well be on their way to returning once again to becoming the IUP under the leadership of Mike Nesbitt.
Agree wholeheartedly with your analysis Jessica , I’ve been reiterating this point for years. Whatever the main Unionist parties are , they are not stupid …..they’re career politicians and will have done the political arithmetic …6 into 26 won’t go but 6 + 26 assures a political future . Unionism more resembles Fine Gael than any other Irish political party….natural right-wing bedfellows…..I’m just bewildered that they haven’t been playing footsie , making approachable overtures ….or have they? The abacus has been used and the counted beans project a Nationalist/Republican majority. Is Kenny and the Blueshirts ( good name for a band ) giving Unionism the “eye”…..is all this combined “united Ireland ” onslaught on Sinn Féin premeditated and calculated with a studied result in mind?
reunification is well underway.what makes you think this.
It is just a matter of time before the two big Unionist parties merge I think everyone knows that but I think they are trying to delay it for as long as possible, if Sinn Fein were to get more MLA’s than the DUP in May (which is unlikely but possible) then they will merge in order to keep SF from being First Minister, even though the Deputy position has exactly the same powers as the First Minister position.
So why merge to keep SF from a position that really doesn’t mean anything when it comes to power here? because SF being in the First Minister role is powerfully symbolic. Its akin to the Union flag being removed by Belfast City Council, once a Unionist Citadel, now a council with more nationalist councillors than Unionist. Its symbolic of the loss of power that Unionism thought was guaranteed forever since partition, which was engineered to keep a Unionist majority, of course.
How will the Unionist electorate react to a Sinn Fein First Minister? I don’t know, we seen the reaction to the flag being took down but that could also be due to the 40,000 leaflets printed by the UUP in the lead up to the vote. In my opinion, I think if SF ever did hold the FM seat, I think the more extremist Unionist parties such as the TUV will get a great increase in votes and I see DUP members being labelled as “Lundy’s” for allowing a process (aka Democracy) in which SF got to hold the FM role. I also think the dregs of society will take advantage of the situation, such as the Loyalist paramilitaries, who we know are still recruiting young people into their terrorist organisations.
Even if the DUP and UUP did merge and form a new party or as Jessica mentioned: one party dissolving itself and simply joining the other, it would simply be delaying the inevitable for a few years and there will be members of both the DUP and UUP who will disagree with the merger for one reason or another and may leave and set up new Unionist political parties. Unionism is renowned for its splits. Even the Orange Order had members who split and formed another Orange Order.
I think the poisoned dwarf Jim Allister and his party will see gains this Assembly election. Again, its unlikely but if the TUV and UUP sap enough seats from the DUP between them then we wont have to wait years to see the reaction from Unionist political parties, and the Unionist electorate in general, to Martin McGuinness being First Minister.