I listened to Nicola Sturgeon the Scots Nat leader being interviewed on BBC Radio 4 this morning. If there’s a more nimble-footed and incisive politician in these islands, I’d like to hear her. Or him.
All sorts of nets were thrown her general direction by interviewer Sarah Montague. Didn’t the polls show most Scots don’t want independence, didn’t she say the last independence referendum just two years ago was a once-in-a-generation opportunity for Scots, isn’t Scotland a bit of a basket case since the slump in oil prices, isn’t she using a second referendum as a threat hanging over Theresa May, demanding that she get Scotland generous access to the European market?
All of these questions and more were slipped smoothly or rebutted with impeccable logic. Scotland, there can be little doubt, is a worrying cloud on Theresa May’s Brexit horizon. There is no way the British prime minister is going to get full access to the single market. That would require a quid pro quo, perhaps even open borders to EU immigrants. If that happened, Britain would be back to where it was pre-Brexit, but without a seat at the European table where the British PM could help shape EU policy on all sorts of matters.
It’s almost certain that Theresa May will not come up with a European deal that will satisfy Scots Nats. If and when that happens, there will inevitably be a second Scottish independence referendum. The fact that Theresa May can refuse to allow such a referendum is scant comfort to UK unionists. If May tries such a move, she will add enormously to Scottish resentment which will be adroitly channeled into Scots Nat support by nimble Nicola. Just about everybody now sees that Brexit was and will continue to be a massive disaster. Scotland looks determined to evade that disaster.
Last night I also caught the DUP’s Gavin Robinson on the BBC’s The View, where he was talking to Fine Gael’s Brian Hayes about the need for co-ordinated policy north and south in the wake of Brexit. Robinson, looking large and stolid, suggested that the south of Ireland might join the UK in an Irexit – that way the border wouldn’t be a trade encumbrance in the future. Hayes, small and twinkly-eyed, came back with talk of the “insanity” of the south of Ireland leaving the EU and how those who’d propose such a thing were ‘economic illiterates’. Woaaahh…It’s one thing to call the Shinners economic illiterates, but what cheek to call the DUP economically illiterate, when we all know they’re hugely clever and cunning, and we have them to thank for getting Britain to do a Brexit…No, hold on. Let think that one through a bit and come back to you. Sometime.
Meanwhile, the present and continuing crisis all comes down to two tough statements of undeniable veracity (except you’re an economic and political illiterate, I suppose):
1.Brexit is the nastiest economic and political shock that Britain has suffered since at least the three-day weeks of the 1970s.
2.Anyone who can see a route out of this ghastly omnishambles is to be applauded and should take it and tell the rest of us how they did it.
Because, if we’re chained to Britain, we’re going to suffer and suffer. Don’t take my word for it. Ask Nicola.
Mr Hayes suggestion, that we are all getting along together, was rapidly discharged from the water. According to Mr Robinson, minnows in the Republic of Ireland are an endangered species. Mr Hayes and Mr Robinson have a lot to learn from Ms Sturgeon, in terms of leadership geared to deliver economic prosperity to the greatest number, not just to an elite. Ms Sturgeon does not patronize. She does not have to as she is keenly aware that the electorate will make the ultimate judgement. The Scottish electorate delivered its verdict on the machinations of the Labour Party in Scotland and the Irish electorate dismissed the Irish Labour Party with similar zeal.
Brexit, according to the British Prime Minister, continues to mean Brexit. It is rapidly beginning to appear as inflation and poverty on the ground. The result of the Brexit referendum is a disunited kingdom. Brexiteers wax eloquently about protecting ‘their’ borders and ‘their’ sovereignty. Irish and Scottish voters are entitled to articulate the need to establish Irish and Scottish sovereignty on the same basis.
You’ve already brought tears to these old nostalgic eyes, Jude .The very mention of those long-ago 3-Day week 1970’s when we huddled around the candles and cranked up the Super Ser bottogas heater when the electricity crashed down and we didn’t have to work. Aw those lovely lazy days of unproductivity!!! Funnily enough ,I was reminded of it just last night as the rain howled down and the power was cut between 9 and 11. I’d been watching that great John Huston film “Beneath the Volcano” from the 1980’s when the lights dropped out and all the wee hearts in all the electrical devices in the house stopped beating. The heat went off; TV died too and I had just enough candlelight to locate the trusty torch …..only to discover that the batteries needed replacing . Some fumbling later the job was done….Thank the stars I could now find the wine…….Well the power popped on two hours later after a candelight vigil of reading by torchlight….no wi-fi remember.Back in the 1970’s we didn’t have problems like central heating or wi-fi to worry about , come to think of it .The power popped back on from this nostalgic reverie just in time to see the immortal interview you mentioned with the wonderful “economic illiterates” quote.As you say, it just kinda tripped off his facile tongue.After that it was back to finish the missing part of “Under the Volcano”……..somehow, methinks ,we’ll be living in the shadow of that particular volcano for a very long time…time enough to stock up with cheap candles for future such vigils before the prices shoot through the roof.
Brexit, Esteemed Blogmeister, as a profound shift in political positions, could well be, as you acutely point out, the biggest shock which Britain has sustained since the 3-day weeks in the early 1970s.
There is much validity in that opinion , especially when viewed from our Enlightened Ant-hill of the contemporary culture of 24/7, going forward.
Nonetheless, it cannot be gainsaid that there is another Public School of Thought.
Such as promoted by that respected beacon of objectivity, Court Correspondent Sir Jocelyn Jodhpurs, CBE, and which tends to look further behind the backside, oops, back story:
RUSS CONWAY IN URBE
UK says ok for its own canoe to paddle
And from those Eurocrats to skedaddle
But much bigger by far
This fnarr from The Star:
‘Raddled Regina opts to ride side-saddle !’
Jude, you wonder about a possible route out of this omnishambles.
Unfortunately you may have to wait about two-an-a-half years until the Article 50 time has expired and Theresa, if she is still in post, returns to Westminster with empty pockets.
Because it will certainly not be in the interests of the other 27 to offer the UK any goodies to hold onto their annual £10bn club membership.
And when she gives her report of what she has gained, reminiscent of the answers Mairtin O’Muilleoir gave at the recent NAMA investigation, half a dozen different international versions of the word ‘nothing’, as the howls and shrieks die down, the pompous Brexiteers will realise that to plough on further would only cost them more and more of their lovely lolly.
Only then will the light start to shine on their little brains, and they will tell us they hadn’t actually decided to leave the EU, and were only testing the water!
“1.Brexit is the nastiest economic and political shock that Britain has suffered since at least the three-day weeks of the 1970s.”
Well, that might be one way of looking at it, and for sure the devaluation of the Pound Sterling isn’t good news for the price of imports, but I don’t really see how being in the EU would remedy the wider Western economic problem.
Now, I’m no economist, but I do know that our Western nations are in debt – a lot of debt; and I know that debt isn’t good. (Although maybe that still makes me an illiterate?)
And we were in debt before Brexit, and we’re still in debt after Brexit – as are the other EU nations who didn’t leave.
Perhaps, though, if we chained ourselves to an international technology company we’d be better off? Who would know?
I mean, I could understand all this ‘chained’ business, if the Republic of Ireland was ‘rolling in it’, so to speak.
As for the First Minister of Scotland.
“All of these questions and more were slipped smoothly or rebutted with impeccable logic.”
I, too, heard the Radio 4 piece; I’d agree with you up to the ‘or’.
“Meanwhile, the present and continuing crisis all comes down to two tough statements of undeniable veracity (except you’re an economic and political illiterate, I suppose):-Jude 2016
“Having said that I admit I am an economic illiterate”-Jude 2015.
Those evening classes are really paying off.
How stunningly witty, gio…Have you an agent yet??
Jude
Thanks, I’m glad you enjoyed it.
I try to bring a little laughter into the world when I can.
“Thanks, I’m glad you enjoyed it.
I try to bring a little laughter into the world when I can.”
You’ve a different day job, Gio?
Phew, I worried you might have died of starvation otherwise.
ceannaire
Pearls before swine!
” isn’t Scotland a bit of a basket case since the slump in oil prices”
Scotland has a larger economy than the Republic’s. Having a large GDP doesn’t mean that people have a good quality of life. Ask the millions upon millions of people living in poverty in the United States and China, both countries are the richest in the world. The Republic ranks above the UK in so many rankings to do with quality of life and general happiness. The Republic even ranked 1st in the World for Best Quality of Life in 2005. It ranked 10th last year, the UK was 18th. Norway and Switzerland all have small economies compared to the UK or USA but yet the standard of living in these small nations are far superior to that of the UK/USA.
” There is no way the British prime minister is going to get full access to the single market”
The EU has made it clear, access to the single market means freedom of movement. Britain cant get access to the single market without opening its borders to EU member states. So yes, if Britain does allow Freedom of Movement then they are basically back to where they were before but with far less power and influence. If they don’t accept Freedom of Movement then access to the Single Market is gone. Expect thousands of jobs in Britain to be lost, Banks/Financial institutions fleeing London (most likely for Dublin) and an uproar from Pro-EU English/Welsh voters and Scottish/Irish Nationalists.
“Robinson, looking large and stolid, suggested that the south of Ireland might join the UK in an Irexit”
That’s La La Land politics. Yes, I want Ireland out of the EU- but only when its ready. I know its not going to happen any time in the near future.
I didn’t quite understand what Brian Hayes was suggesting. Was the Irish Government saying they would pay the fees for the North to stay in the EU or have some sort of special status? If they were then that sounds like a great offer.
The impression I get from the DUP is that they think they represent everyone in the North. Its extremely arrogant to say the least. They lost the Brexit vote in the North. Its important to remember the DUP vote at the Assembly Election was just 29%. The combined Unionist vote from all Unionist parties was just 43%, well below a majority.
Also, its fair to say many Unionists, even DUP voters, may not want a political United Ireland but that doesn’t mean they oppose more North-South integration, especially if it brings economic benefits. I think it was UUP MP Cecil Walker that once said in the 1990’s that a United Ireland in 30 years time “may not be a bad thing”. 50% of protestants in a poll voiced their support for an All Ireland soccer team.
“Because, if we’re chained to Britain, we’re going to suffer and suffer. Don’t take my word for it. Ask Nicola”
Yes, we’re all going to suffer, poor and wealthy alike. Its hard to see how the UK can survive all this. I’m not just talking about the likely prospect of Scottish Independence or Irish Unity but even after the last Scot referendum the UK Government promised to devolve many key powers to Scotland, Wales and the North, effectively making the UK a loose federation. That’s going to happen no matter what. There’s a group of academics in the House of Lords examining it and making proposals. English Nationalists now are starting to voice their desires of more key powers for local Councils and have even called for an English Parliament. UKIP’s Nigel Farage said “its not fair the Scottish and Welsh get what they want but the English don’t”.
Ever since devolution occurred and Scotland/Wales got their own Parliaments, the UK has slowly drifted apart and is now tearing itself apart. Brexit has accelerated this….I wouldn’t be surprised if talk of an “Independent Northern Ireland” was mooted again within Unionist circles in the near future once the poo hits the fan…….
“The EU has made it clear, access to the single market means freedom of movement. Britain cant get access to the single market without opening its borders to EU member states.”
Nonsense. You’re confusing membership of the single market with access to it.
Why are you so against the EU, PF? It wouldn’t have anything to do with idea that Roman Catholic social policy coexists alongside the strong commitment to human rights within the union. The Protestant truth society and others find human rights legislation abhorrent, which is all a bit odd to the rest of us.
Freddie
Nothing to do with Roman Catholicism, nothing at all.
More to do with my belief in Nations.
Let’s put it this way, I’d much, much prefer to be part of a Sovereign and Independent United Catholic Ireland, than be a subservient member of faceless, overly administrative, unaccountable, bureaucratic and nationless fake democracy.
I’m not half as anti-Catholic as you seem to think I am.