Will you be heading for the Ramada Inn at Shaw’s Bridge today? Mm, me neither. Though maybe we’ll be missing something important. Although then again, maybe not.
Mike Nesbitt has the job of giving the kiss of life to the Ulster Unionist Party, which for a time looked as though it’d be better having a Do Not Resuscitate notice pinned on its pyjamas. But what happened last year? Crikey – Mike Nesbitt went for zero to hero . OK, maybe not hero, but at least hopeful. Because in last year’s Westminster election, Danny Kinahan pushed Willie McCrea off the electoral cliff, while Tom Elliott (no, seriously) defeated Michelle Gildernew. The light of hope shone in UUP eyes and the patient sat up and took some light nourishment.
Now Mike wants to push his party into having a different line on things from the DUP. Otherwise why vote for them? Things like same sex marriage, a better health service and improved literacy in our schools. Mmm. Guess which one of those is the real differentiator? Same-sex marriage, of course. That one is like reaching up and tweaking Arlene Foster’s nose: get with it, Arlene, he’s saying, this is the twenty-first century.
In addition, Nesbitt will be following up with a knee to the DUP groin when the SDLP leader, Colum Eastwood, stands up to address the conference today. The UUP leader acknowledges that the two Opposition parties need to do a better job of showing how closely they work together, how they are bread-and-butter and gay marriage people, while the DUP is all flags and shut the shops on Sundays. So will today at Shaw’s Bridge mark the serious resurgence of the UUP and serious damage to the DUP?
Highly unlikely. But if it did, and the UUP started to take, say, 35-49% of unionist votes, what would happen? As sure as a cat likes licking itself, the UUP and the DUP would go into a unionist electoral clinch. The clue is in the name: the constitutional position is what makes the unionist mare go. Yes, explain how you’ll make life better for people here. Yes, show you’re really modern and get the same-sex marriage thing. But always remember, so much as a hint that Mike’s palliness with the SDLP and his same-sex-marriage line was creating serious division within unionism, putting the union at risk, however remote, Mike would have a pair of concrete electoral overshoes attached to him and he’d be slipped quietly into the Lagan.
And the SDLP? They’re going nowhere as long as Colum Eastwood continues to wear a beard with a distracting white spot on his chin. They’re also going nowhere because the nationalist/republican electorate have a strong suspicion – well-founded – that the SDLP doesn’t care about a united Ireland, detests Sinn Féin more than it detest the Ulster Unionists, and while it has young middle-class women with sweet faces and refined voices, it’ll never be the glad confident morning they knew under John Hume.
Meanwhile, I call on Colum Eastwood in his speech today to explain, not what he is doing at a unionist party conference (trying to sound like the strong leader of an enlightened, middle-class very-faintly-green party), but what he intends to do about thebeard and its white spot. As Oscar Wilde is reported as saying on his deathbed about the room’s wallpaper: “One of us will have to go”.
“But if it did, and the UUP started to take, say, 35-49% of unionist votes, what would happen? As sure as a cat likes licking itself, the UUP and the DUP would go into a unionist electoral clinch.”
That didn’t happen when the converse occurred.
Now be fair, the Deputy for Fermanagh and South Tyrone is Tom Elliot regardless of how he got there, Sinn Fein bolloxed that constituency up royally, and, again, the FST stoops assisted the Unionists, deserving of a bullet rather than a ballot.
Only some roads lead to Shaw’s Bridge, some bridges are for crossing, others for burning. The question is, will they manage to square the circle in burning issues articulated in Brexit/Regrexit debates? An article in The New Statesman (20 October 2016) raises a number of salient issues:
“England and Wales can at least reflect that they voted for Brexit, but Scotland and Northern Ireland did not. By 62-38 and 56-44 respectively, both nations voted to remain in the EU… the Leave vote has undermined the peace settlement. The principle that no change should be made to the constitutional status of Northern Ireland without the consent of its people has also been imperiled. In Northern Ireland as in Scotland, the problem remains a UK that exaggerates the power of an over mighty England.”
Which is it to be, the Rubicon or the Styx?
Will Mr. Eastwood ask the huddled masses of UUP delegates why not one of their elected representatives thought fit to attend the funeral of Bishop Edward Daly, and whether it ever occurred to them that this might be seen as a deliberate snub to the majority population in Derry or to the nationalist/republican constituency they are now wooing?
The “refined voices” of the middle class stoops really piss me off as they increasingly refer to “northern Ireland” or “Nolan Ahland” every turn around .!
“The “refined voices” of the middle class stoops really piss me off as they increasingly refer to “northern Ireland” or “Nolan Ahland” every turn around .!”
Why?
Some of us find the colonial terminology ‘Northern Ireland’ very offensive.know why MT? Because we do.
“Some of us find the colonial terminology ‘Northern Ireland’ very offensive.know why MT? Because we do.”
It’s not colonial terminology and ‘because we do’ isn’t am explanation.
“Northern Ireland” is as much a country as “Northern Germany” or “Northern Holland” and we all know deep within out hearts that it ain’t. It will be soon consigned to the dustbin of history soon after Scottish Independence which looks very likely in the short to medium term.
‘“Northern Ireland” is as much a country as “Northern Germany” or “Northern Holland”’
That’s untrue.
Now you know how the rest of us feel when you cut and paste three quarters of somebody’s post and add “No it doesn’t ” or ” Why”
And some people find ‘the north of Ireland’ in lieu of an internationally recognised name very offensive.
It works both ways.
Zero-sum-game offence always leads to offence, it would behoof all offenders and offendees to show a bit of ‘live and let live’ rather than outrage.
How come if it’s a choice between offending one side or the other that it’s always the nationalist side that gets it in the neck? Think Londonderry and poppy wearers etc etc.
“How come if it’s a choice between offending one side or the other that it’s always the nationalist side that gets it in the neck? Think Londonderry and poppy wearers etc etc”
The question is whether or not it’s reasonable to take offence. Being offended by the proper name of a jurisdiction or city is not reasonable. Neither is taking offence at remembrance of war dead.
Pure speculation!
Perhaps the electorate might like to see Unionists and Nationalists working together to form something resembling a proper opposition.
Meanwhile, when is Jude going to do something about that distracting gleam from his pate?
A beret might help.
THE FIFTH COLUMN GOES FORTH
So, there are two C. Eastwoods? Yup.
Today one with the UUP devil will sup
Will he take a hint
Like Cowboy Clint
To the horizon squint and SDLP up?
Maybe Colum could educate his audience in historical realities especially in light of last nights UUP party political broadcast which harked back to the good old days of one party rule until those uppity fenians started to demand equality in jobs, housing and representation.
Will the SDLP ever learn or are they just plain so British in their outlook that they are blind to the history of the UUP and the orange order who by the back door still rule the roost in the UUP ,
but alas as you point out the sdlp hate sinn fein and the republican movement more than they do the uup and they always did going back to Gerry Fitt and Curry
“but alas as you point out the sdlp hate sinn fein and the republican movement more than they do the uup and they always did going back to Gerry Fitt and Curry”
That’s why the SDLP is on the verge of non-existence Philip. If Callum Eastwood doesn’t turn the party around then no one will. His first election was bad, SDLP vote dropped 2% and he lost 2 seats. Many people have said that the SDLP should just merge with Fianna Fail when they contest elections in the North, which will happen in 2019. The UDA are on the record saying they want the SDLP to survive and encouraged protestants in “unwinnable areas for unionism” to vote SDLP. Of course, such support has done more damage to the SDLP lol it just shows certain UDA members should cut back on the drugs they’re peddling but opening their mouths.
SF’s latest small drop in votes is mostly due to their policies (particularly their murky stance on abortion) and their concentration on politics in the South. To me SF seem to be stagnant in recent years, they need a shock to get them buzzing again. These overtures to Unionism is doing them some damage by their electorate because its not being reciprocated (as expected) and its seen as appeasement by many but I think in the end it will be good for republicanism.
” blind to the history of the UUP and the orange order who by the back door still rule the roost in the UUP ,”
Really?,This is an interesting claim. Do explain.
“Really?,This is an interesting claim. Do explain”
Claim?….its common knowledge. I think in the 1960’s Stormont all Unionist MP’s were Orange men except one…..I don’t know how many UUP MLAs/MP’s are Orange men today but many still are, the rest are Orange Order supporters.
“Claim?…”
Yes.
“.its common knowledge.:
It’s not.
“I think in the 1960’s Stormont all Unionist MP’s were Orange men except one…..”
The 60s ended 46 years ago.
“I don’t know how many UUP MLAs/MP’s are Orange men today but many still are, the rest are Orange Order supporters.”
So you’ve no evidence to back up the claim. .
MT
I can’t find the data for the UUP but there was a study in the Belfast Telegraph (thought we don’t believe anything published by that rag around here) in 2014 which found that:
“Among the DUP’s 38 MLAs over a third are Free Presbyterians and exactly half are Orangemen. The proportion increases further among the party’s eight MPs.”
Given the problems around the Orange Order I consider that a worrying figure.
There are only around 34,000 members of the OO as far as I know so that influence in our government is certainly disproportionate.
Most Unionist MLAs declare they are members of the Loyal orders. Some who are members don’t declare it but have been photographed, sashed and bowler hatted, at orange marches
http://www.niassembly.gov.uk/globalassets/documents/your_mlas/register-of-interests/register-of-interests-4-july-2016.pdf
Ben
Thanks for the link.
It only shows 4 (I think) UUP MLAs who are members.
Because they do.
“Because they do.”
Who do what?
MT,it’s far from “refined voices” they or their parents were reared and the Nationalist electorate ie people on the ground rarely if ever refer to “nolan ahland ” or any other pronunciation thereof.!
“while Tom Elliott (no, seriously) defeated Michelle Gildernew.”
It was really the SDLP who defeated Michelle Gildernew, along with a low nationalist turnout. Its yet another example of nationalist parties failing to work together and landing a nationalist majority with a Unionist MP who even admitted he only represents people with his brand of politics. Who to blame? Well SF did offer a pact with the SDLP. The SDLP refused but gave what could be described as a good reason: SF would be getting 3 seats for 1. I think Callum Eastwood would be better attending SF conferences instead of UUP, because everyone knows when it comes to election time MikeTV will be siding with the DUP to keep Callum’s party out. Co-operation has failed between both parties before its even begun.
I think Tom Elliot will be gone by the next Westminster Election but the people of F/ST should get out in their droves to ensure he’s consigned to the past.
“The clue is in the name: the constitutional position is what makes the unionist mare go”
I think that’s incorrect but I would forgive anyone for making that mistake. What makes the unionist mare go is “keeping them’uns out”, aka Catholics (yes Kop, we do exist, whether you like it or not). The Orange Order even has a Land Fund to purchase land to keep Catholics from the very land itself. All the Unionist parties support the fund and I’m sure have even donated to it.
On Chris Donnelly’s twitter feed there is a tweet from Slugger O’Toole which shows Mike Nesbitt (I think its Mike, its certainly a UUP politician) bemoaning a DUP minister for allowing boundary changes which ensured there would be no Unionist majority. Yes, in 2016, Unionist politicians are bemoaning that they cant gerrymander. Not 1966, but in 2016.
Has anyone watched the UUP’s recent political broadcast? I was in the middle of my dinner last night when it came on. Its available on the UUP’s facebook page I believe. But the first part of that broadcast really is laughable and shocking. From what I remember it shows protestors (referring to the 1960’s Civil Rights Movement, I assume) and MikeTV says that such people “wanted to destroy our country and people”. Before that it says that the North was a true democracy, obviously referring to majority Unionist misrule. Needless to say my dinner went a little cold as me and my relative watched on at the broadcast and laughed at its blunt attempt at rewriting history. There was a cringe moment near the end when the broadcast refers to “Our Wee Country”.
So no, I dont think Political Unionism is obsessed with keeping the Union, its more sectarian motives. If Political Unionism had the option of the status quo or an independent Northern State but with no Catholics then I think they would jump for the latter. All the Pro-Independent Northern Ireland groups in the past were filled with Unionists. The main reason they wanted Independence for the North was because they would be in control, without interference from the British or Irish Governments. Once the Catholic population started to surge the idea of an Independent Northern State went out the window. Willie Frazer and many Loyalist paramilitaries use to advocate it but once the demographics started to change, they ditched it quicker than an obsessive cleaner would ditch used bog roll because Unionist dominance in the new state couldn’t be guaranteed anymore.
Forgive my naivety but I actually thought Mike Nesbitt would’ve been a good influence on Unionist politics but he has pushed the UUP further to the right, they are more like the DUP, why dont both parties just merge?. From Danny Kinahan standing in photos with sectarian bonfires with an Irish flag (which we all know was deliberate) to printing 40,000 leaflets to work the Loyalist mob up outside Belfast City Hall, it shows the UUP’s agenda isn’t shared politics but pandering to the “super prods” in our society.
SDLP-UUP co-operation? working together? its failed before its even begun. That’s typical of the politics in this failed state.
” bemoaning a DUP minister for allowing boundary changes which ensured there would be no Unionist majority. Yes, in 2016, Unionist politicians are bemoaning that they cant gerrymander. Not 1966, but in 2016.”
Empey was complaining about gerrymandering not supporting it. The current boundaries are gerrymandered to prevent a unionist majority in Belfast.
“Empey was complaining about gerrymandering not supporting it. The current boundaries are gerrymandered to prevent a unionist majority in Belfast”
Proof? I’ll have to take your word for it that it was Empey but wasn’t it a DUP Minister that consented to the boundary changes? So your basically saying that a DUP Minister…..is gerrymandering against Unionists? But Belfast doesn’t even have a Unionist majority, the majority of the population is Catholic/Republican as the census showed.
Given the UUP’s past MT, I think they are very supportive of Gerrymandering but only as long as its in their favour, of course. I think Empey is upset an opportunity was missed to do it in Belfast. Again, it shows the attitude of political Unionism today.
Here’s an example of their gerrymandering in Derry, in case you have difficulty in believing common knowledge.
“I’ll have to take your word for it that it was Empey but wasn’t it a DUP Minister that consented to the boundary changes?”
I don’t know what the approval process was.
“So your basically saying that a DUP Minister…..is gerrymandering against Unionists?”
Whoever drew the boundaries was gerrymandering.
“But Belfast doesn’t even have a Unionist majority, the majority of the population is Catholic/Republican as the census showed.”
Within the outdated boundaries. If the boundaries were drawn around the natural extent of the city there would be a unionist majority. That’s why they were deliberately drawn to exclude Castlereagh and lump it in with Lisburn and keep Newtownabbey out too.
Because they do.
Who by?
“Who by?”
The Boundary Commission drew them.
Well are they gerrymandered or not? And if so, is the boundary commission guilty of political chicanery?
Aw yes …the Beard !…. I think maybe the Beard should have a column(!) of its own …..the white distracting spot has been duly noted….i just hadn’t the heart to make mention of it…..maybe a spot of black dye might do the trick? What’s that stuff that some men use that you see in the chemist?….Maybe he’s trying to out -Gerry …Gerry????
Have you seen the current UUP’s anodyne, fairytale version of how we got to this position where we are now?In particular there’s their delightful reason why arms were taken up against “our wee country”…as though everything was rosy in the garden before those nasty , bad boys decided to kick down the garden fence. There was no mention of the fifty years of misrule, the corrupt police forces, or the pandering to large groups of armed bully boys marching through the streets. No mention of the base racism meted out to one part of the community in “our wee country” (SIC)…as if it was really a country and not some little enforced state. We know that Grimms Fairy Tales are actually tales of horror in disguise,This new version of history for “junior” really takes the biscuit. Is this what unionism means when they talk about history being re-written? Just exactly who is re-writing history here? See it all here in living colour….. it’ll only take about a minute but it’ll make your toes curl….
http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b080ckhd/party-political-broadcasts-ulster-unionist-party-20102016
Calum Eastwood, hirsute or otherwise, was not insinuated into the SDLP leadership to improve its performance.
The Mad Doctor was getting more and more out of control, and was in danger of imploding the party completely, so he had to go, whoever was to take his place, so its unfair to expect progress from the wee lad.
SDLP are still very short-sighted in not forming an election pact with Sinn Fein, while knowing that the DUP and UUP will have a pact, and what use are your claimed principles if you cannot get elected – even the much maligned Gerry Britt could have taught them that much.
But of course Sinn Fein are not acting in the best interests of their voters – they have accepted the position of junior partners in the coalition with the DUP.
It is clear to everybody that in every situation where there is a green versus orange clash, Arlene just says: ‘No, we will do it our way’, and Marty drops his head, smiles in that sickly manner, and replies: ‘Yes, dear’!
And then they wonder why less people are voting for them!
“SDLP are still very short-sighted in not forming an election pact with Sinn Fein”
SDLP will definitely need pact to hold South Belfast at next Westminster election Sherdy. But to be fair to the SDLP, the pact SF was offering wasn’t a fair deal, it required the SDLP standing down in F/ST, North Belfast and in another location. The only place SF were standing down was in South Belfast, which the SDLP knew they were likely to hold anyway. So SF need to make pacts sweeter for the SDLP next time. Though SF also don’t want the SDLP being revived, like the DUP has done to the UUP. Before the last Westminster election we all thought the UUP was dead and ready to be buried but it was the DUP who foolishly got them back on their feet. I don’t think the DUP thought the UUP would win 2 seats but their fear of losing East Belfast and North Belfast to Alliance and SF proved greater than their fear of the UUP being revived.
I think Naomi Long will take East Belfast at the next Westminster Election (most agree the election will come sooner rather than later, thanks to Brexit) and I think SF will retake F/ST and they might even take North Belfast, especially if the SDLP agree a pact. North Belfast, East Belfast and F/ST all require Unionist pacts to hold those seats but pacts can only delay the inevitable.
“And then they wonder why less people are voting for them!”
SF aren’t stupid but their current tactics are damaging, its just a matter of time before they wise up, I hope so anyway!
Ryan, SDLP held Belfast south only because the unionist pact failed to include UKIP candidate, former OUP councillor Bob Stoker, his votes, had he not run, would have gone to Jonathan Bell who would have taken the seat for DUP.
“Ryan, SDLP held Belfast south only because the unionist pact failed to include UKIP candidate, former OUP councillor Bob Stoker, his votes, had he not run, would have gone to Jonathan Bell who would have taken the seat for DUP.”
There was no unionist pact in South Belfast.
Gerrymandering is a term with decades of history about it.Not everybody “gets” it’s real meaning however.Well over 3 decades ago,a neighbouring youth used to arrive at our door to see if we were “going Gerrymandering”.I think he meant personation but my brother and I were totally shocked at such an assault on the democratic process and always sent him away with a flea in his ear!
“My appeal is this – try to convince us of your vision for the future and we’ll try to convince you of ours. Let it be a discussion based on hard facts and hard truths. Most of all let it be creative – and then in time let the people decide. That’s the way politics is supposed to work. It’s how it works at its best – without threat or theatrics.”
Colum Eastwood
And that’s a lot (a lot, a lot, a lot) more preferable to what we’ve had for 40 years.
Any update, MT, on the evidence that Gerry Adams is/was a member of the IRA? Do you not know any street dogs to help you? Or do you just throw out accusations and punchy one liners and then walk away?
“Any update, MT, on the evidence that Gerry Adams is/was a member of the IRA? Do you not know any street dogs to help you? Or do you just throw out accusations and punchy one liners and then walk away?”
Who mentioned Gerry Adams? What accusations?