The RHI affair: what should happen, what might happen and the long-term consequences

Despite valiant efforts to muddy the waters with talk of misogyny and  Arlene Foster’s control of the RHI scheme being fault-free, most of us have a firm grip on what the Cash-for-Ashes scheme involved and who it involved. It was set up under DUP MLA Arlene Foster, the less-than-good work was continued by DUP MLA Jonathan Bell, and the public have been landed with a bill which will cost over £1 billion (the bad news), of which between £400million and £600million must be coughed up locally (the good news).

Most of us also know what’s required: a public inquiry which can compel witnesses and documents, which is made up of non-aligned and competent figures, and which is held in public, over a limited period,  so we can see who’s squirming and who isn’t. There are claims that Sinn Féin were slow to arrive at this position on the matter – they presumably didn’t want to hold DUP feet any closer to the fire than necessary, given that they are partners in government. However, with Michelle O’Neill’s latest statement, it’s clear they’re in agreement with the need for the investigation to be public and transparent.

Given the outcry by all sides bar the DUP, it’s reasonable to assume that party will have to accept the terms of the inquiry. But the DUP don’t always act in a reasonable way, so it’s  possible Arlene will come up with the same not-an-inch to the bitter end – which bitter end will be a general election.

What will the results of that election be? By now, we should have learnt that the outcome of any given election or referendum ain’t done until it’s done. But it does seem safe to suppose that the DUP haven’t won over many new converts with the RHI scandal,  and possible that they’ll have lost a few voters they might have expected to stay with them. But  the DUP and Sinn Féin will remain the two dominant parties post-election.

And then what? They can’t very well go into government together again, especially if the inquiry finds Arlene Foster guilty in relation to the RHI scheme. But if the post-election (or even pre-election) DUP jettisoned Arlene and replaced her with someone else (I’m almost afraid to think who), that might be seen as enough for Sinn Féin to go back into government with them.

On the other hand, too much permanent damage may have occurred for the two parties to form a joint Executive again. Which would leave only one likely option: direct rule from Westminster.

There are those who shy away from this – closer integration with Britain, less control over our own affairs. That’s probably true; but it’s also true that every time the DUP or other parties make local government impossible, unionism comes back to the table with less to show for its pains. Put bluntly: is it likely that, in the event of direct rule, the southern government will have more  input into the governance of our little NE hidey-hole? More than likely. And the nearer Westminster rule comes to being joint rule, the nearer things inch towards an outcome that will happen sooner or later: national reunification.

Once you start a fire there’s no knowing where it’ll end.