Martin McGuinness in his resignation letter on Monday laid the blame for the collapse of the Stormont institutions squarely on the shoulders of the First Minister, saying “the refusal of Arlene Foster to recognise the public anger or to exhibit any humility in the context of the RHI scandal is indicative of a deep-seated arrogance which is inflicting enormous damage on the Executive, the Assembly and the entire body politic…That position is not credible or tenable.”
McGuinness’ resignation has received widespread support in the Republican grassroots and beyond. Even the Irish Times, not usually a fan of Sinn Féin, said in its editorial that his resignation was a “proper response” to a scandal “which has exposed the hollowness of formal power-sharing and of the idea of collective responsibility in the Executive.”
So if the Renewable Heating Incentive scheme was the straw that broke the camel’s back and is the issue that has dominated the new agenda for weeks, it is reasonable to assume that candidates will be asked about it on the doorsteps.
If an election were to take place tomorrow, it is likely that Sinn Féin would see a bump in its vote based on current public sentiment over RHI. But an election is at least seven weeks away. The question then for Sinn Féin is how it will handle the issue on the canvass.
Without an Executive at Stormont, there are practical hurdles to putting in place any investigation – whether that be a public inquiry under the Inquiries Act, or an independent investigation as was previously suggested by Sinn Féin. The party then needs to find a way to jump those hurdles.
It won’t be enough for Sinn Féin’s candidates and canvassers to say on the doorstep that Arlene Foster is beyond being held to account because Sinn Féin has exerted its power to take her out of office. If it’s the case that resignation and an election is being viewed internally as sufficient chastisement, any electoral bounce will quickly disappear. Likewise Sinn Féin voters won’t easily forgive a situation that sees Foster return as First Minister after the election in a patched-up deal that doesn’t include an inquiry into RHI.
It is clear that the public want to know how the RHI scheme went so horribly wrong, who was responsible and who benefitted. If Sinn Féin fail to see that, then they will fall victim, as the DUP did, to not accurately gauging public sentiment and acting upon it.
Any investigation is not just about the RHI scheme, though. An opportunity now exists to frame how any future investigations into issues of concern which arise within the Assembly should proceed. It’s likely that will be needed at some time in the future, given the nature of governments. That opportunity should not be squandered.
The party needs to have a clear direction of travel on how it proposes to investigate the RHI scandal. The SDLP will most certainly cry foul if they do not come up with a plan quickly, as will the Ulster Unionist, Alliance and Green parties who also called for investigations into the RHI. Even the DUP are now saying they want a public inquiry.
Once an election is called on the 16th January, as seems likely, Sinn Féin needs to be clear on the doorsteps what exactly it is seeking in terms of an investigation into how more than half a billion pounds is set to go up in smoke. If it doesn’t, it will learn the DUP’s lesson that the electorate is not so forgiving.
The glaringly obvious answer is a public inquiry.
Only if it can be setup and underway within weeks.
This is too clear cut, whether or not a criminal investigation is needed could be established via a preliminary report within weeks the evidence appears to be so obvious.
Pushing it years down the road through the inevitable delays public inquiries always face would be foolish. We would most likely be at the stage of a border poll before it has even concluded.
I want to know the outcome of a properly empowered investigation within months and whether or not impropriety or criminality made public including the number of applications linked to the DUP.
“Only if it can be setup and underway within weeks.”
It won’t be now that the Provos have pulled the plug.
It’ll be after an election.
The investigation in that timeframe will have to go ahead whether Stormont comes back again or not MT.
The public will not accept anything less.
“The investigation in that timeframe will have to go ahead whether Stormont comes back again or not MT.”
As I said, it won’t happen until after an election now.
Have you discovered a new political party, MT? Or do you just like calling names?
I don’t think the RHI scandal was the straw that broke the camel’s back at all Patricia, it was the DUPs attitude in refusing to accept or acknowledge any responsibility for it, their gross display of superiority in rejecting genuine efforts to help from Sinn Fein as telling them what to do when clearly they weren’t and the disgustingly smug email almost relishing in the withdrawal of funding to Liofa which was such blatant sectarian discrimination and even after all of that, to then turn around and say they dislike Sinn Fein and are only sharing power with them because they have to and will look out for only the electorate who vote for them, that was the death knell.
They have proven beyond all doubt that they don’t even get the whole principal of the GFA on which the restoration of Stormont was based.
It cannot return until these principals are restored with confidence no matter what the election results and that will take years if the DUP are at the core.
There is too much money involved for there not to be a proper investigation into the scandal, this will have to happen irrespective of what happens and most likely this will lead to a criminal investigation but it has to be pursued rigorously by all of the parties.
But I agree, Sinn Fein MUST clarify their bottom line in the format and timeframes an investigation should take place in but also get it underway at the earliest possible opportunity.
We don’t yet know what the DUP’s lesson is is. If they come back as the largest party the lesson will be on all of us. If they are not seriously damaged at the polls by the Ulster Unionists or the Alliance there can be no return to the Assembly and the only alternative is joint authority.
I totally agree Dominic.
There can be absolutely no return to a Stormont with a DUP joint first minister.
I prefer the joint alternate authority:
That will mean when the UK Brexits we can be ruled by them for six months as UK citizens, and the next six months we are ruled by the Irish as EU citizens.
The best of both worlds – you couldn’t whack it!
I think Patricia is about right in her analysis. This election could be tricky to negotiate for SF. They seem to be pinning their hopes on the DUP getting a bit of a beating from the public but that is by no means certain.
If the DUP return as the largest party then what? SF are saying no return to the status quo so that implies negotiation and some kind of new agreement hammered out.
It is hard not to feel we have all been there done that before.
And if the DUP do return as the largest party where does that leave the RHI investigation.?
No doubt some kind of inquiry will still be set up but things will have moved on the voters will have spoken and other concerns will take precedence.
On the other hand if the DUP get a significant drop in their support we would be in uncharted waters and a likely period of uncertainty.
I can’t see any outcome which will be especially good .
Whatever the outcome the DUP will not be back in Stormont and that can only be good in my book.
jessica
Your certainty is unwarranted.
If the DUP and SF are returned as the two largest parties do you really think some kind of deal will not be hammered out?
A bout of negotiation, a promise on an Irish Language Act, an inquiry on RHI under the terms already proposed by SF and agreed by the DUP, maybe some other changes to procedural matters (POC possibly) and it will be back to business as usual.
Have Sinn Fein said they will not go back into government with the DUP under any circumstances? Not to my knowledge.
“Your certainty is unwarranted.
If the DUP and SF are returned as the two largest parties do you really think some kind of deal will not be hammered out?
A bout of negotiation, a promise on an Irish Language Act, an inquiry on RHI under the terms already proposed by SF and agreed by the DUP, maybe some other changes to procedural matters (POC possibly) and it will be back to business as usual.
Have Sinn Fein said they will not go back into government with the DUP under any circumstances? Not to my knowledge.”
And what do the DUP get in return, GB?
MT
Yes that is a fair question?
A continuation of the status quo more or less, I suppose.
What else can they hope for?
If they come out of this whole thing still the largest party in a power sharing arrangement, with no public inquiry on RHI and a renewed mandate I think they would be happy enough to concede say an Irish Language Act which would have happened eventually any way.
Too many people here seem to feel that nationalist/republican parties have made a significant achievement here, when all that has happened so far has been a bit of playing to the gallery.
Whether it leads to genuine change in a few months time remains to be seen.
That is absolute bullshit gio and if you think there will be no inquiry into RHI you too are living in dreamland alongside the DUP.
“Yes that is a fair question?
A continuation of the status quo more or less, I suppose.
What else can they hope for?”
They’ll need to get something. They won’t want to be seen as acceding to Provo demands.
“If they come out of this whole thing still the largest party in a power sharing arrangement, with no public inquiry on RHI and a renewed mandate I think they would be happy enough to concede say an Irish Language Act which would have happened eventually any way.”
There will be a public jnquiry. The DUP has already conceded this.
An Irish language Act is difficult for them to concede having previously boasted about resisting one.
Why do you think it would have happened anyway?
“Too many people here seem to feel that nationalist/republican parties have made a significant achievement here, when all that has happened so far has been a bit of playing to the gallery.
Whether it leads to genuine change in a few months time remains to be seen.”
This is true.
MT
They would be a bit cheeky to be making demands after their recent behaviour, but yes I suppose any negotiation would have to have something for both sides, maybe something for UlsterScots.
I was not aware the DUP have conceded a ‘public’inquiry as opposed to the ‘independent’ inquiry suggested by SF which they did seem happy with.
I still see that as more likely after the election.
As for the Irish Language Act I am only guessing but I feel it is something they would be prepared to concede when it helps them out of a hole such as now.
It was after all agreed in principle in the STA.
You think allowing an Irish Language Act would get the DUP out of a hole and back in Stormont?
Not a chance in hell gio.
The backlash against Sinn Fein would be intense.
They know damn well there is no chance of going there, they wouldn’t dare.
I have ever in my life felt such outrage against unionism. I will have to take Harrys word for it that the 60s and civil rights was a similar situation, but this is not going away.
The rubicon has been not only crossed but pissed on.
There is no going back now – the genie is out of the bottle and the bottle has been smashed.
“Not a chance in hell gio.
The backlash against Sinn Fein would be intense.
They know damn well there is no chance of going there, they wouldn’t dare.”
How do you know? And what form would this ‘intense backlash’ take?
“If the DUP and SF are returned as the two largest parties do you really think some kind of deal will not be hammered out?”
I don’t think there is the remotest chance in hell that a deal could be hammered out and I don’t think the public would forgive Sinn Fein if they did.
The Maze project is our best means of transforming our economy and provide decades of construction development work which will be much needed all over Ireland in the post FDI era. Unification will be required to be able to borrow the money needed to implement this project and develop the roads network infrastructure into the west of the country not only in the north.
There will be billions in funding available from the EU as part of the reunification process. Ireland has become a net contributor and without unification will be paying more into the EU than it gets back for the first time ever.
It has no other means of recouping the Apple 19 billion of tax it is due which would guarantee the loans needed for this development and address the delays there will be in the funds being released.
A 32 county program of housing construction could begin which will address the homeless issue and the opportunity to transform public services into a streamlined single Dublin based administration would give the greatest savings for both parts of the island and allow a new Irish National Health service to be developed.
With on-going Brexit negotiations, Britain could focus on its own agenda in developing new trade deals with the world which I would lie to see a new united Ireland become a part off at some point in the future.
Northern Ireland has failed, I will not be tolerating any more of the bullshit politics of Stormont.
I am confident if the 2 governments agreed this was the best direction and supported it then all of our people would be better off.
That is the way the pieces are falling though.
People like yourself with personal prejudices are going the way of the dodo.
jessica
Three Points.
1. Are you suggesting SF will not return to power sharing with the DUP under any circumstances? I have not seen any statement from them to suggest this.
If you are saying no deals then that can only be what you mean.
2. On RHI I said no ‘public ‘ inquiry. That is what SF already suggested and the DUP agreed to.
My own preference was for a public inquiry.
3. Your last sentence ‘
People like yourself with personal prejudices are going the way of the dodo.’
seems to be abuse but I can’t quite decide since everybody has personal prejudices so maybe you mean we are all going the way of the dodo?
If so I agree.
Could you make your insults a bit clearer in future.
Well, going by what they have said in public, after the elections Stormont will absolutely NOT be returning, but instead there will be a period of negotiations including both governments to determine how best to guarantee the equality and parity of esteem enshrined within the GFA that both governments have allowed to be abused to the point the public no longer have any confidence or support for the institutions.
I don’t think they can make it any clearer than that gio.
There is absolutely nothing the DUP have in their gift to offer that could avoid this and failure to deliver on this promise by Sinn Fein would lead to an absolute collapse of their support which as you can see, is the preferred outcome of a tiny minority both on this blog and in society but hardly in their long term best interests to do so.
I would have no issue with a public inquiry if there was a guaranteed time frame. It has to be completed within months, not years.
The voices of people like yourself who thrive on the derision of Sinn Fein and who use our past conflicts to deliver it are fading into insignificance as the positive actions of the party in recent times overshadow your hatred and show it for what it is.
“My own preference was for a public inquiry.”
Has there ever been a public inquiry that has been setup and completed its requirements reporting within 12 months or even 24 months?
we are still waiting to hear the details of iris and her sex life.peters 5er land deal ect and all the rest of the buried scandals.is this what you want without a public inquiry..will nolan be allowed to broadcast his findings during the election campaign or will that be seen as unfair….less voters.
RHI needs to remain front and centre of all parties’ election campaigns (apart from the DUP obv…) As we’re unlikely to see a public enquiry this side of an election, there needs to be further investigation as to who exactly benefited from this scheme, particularly during the spike in applications ahead of its closure. If (as seems likely) it turns out to have been friends, family, DUP donors and Free P Churches then one hopes that the electorate vote accordingly.
“If (as seems likely) it turns out to have been friends, family, DUP donors and Free P Churches ” – RJC – if that emerges I would have thought criminal prosecution would be more appropriate.
But Jude, who do you think will be brave enough to arrest and bring to court a couple of dozen of Presbyterian ministers and elders?
Sherdy it wouldn’t be Presbyterian ministers who would be prosecuted as they would have done nothing other than apply for a scheme which was brought to their attention by someone else. It would be the persons responsible for administering the scheme unfairly or those who are abusing the scheme.
SF’s objective in this election is – as is usual – to gain as many seats as possible.
However, I don’t think they intend to use those seats to simply re-enter Stormont with an increased mandate.
Rather they intend to use that mandate to negotiate a re-entry to a changed Stormont executive with the British and Irish governments.
In other words they plan on negotiations with the two governments ahead of any return to Stormont.
That is how I read McGuiness’ resignation letter, so that is what I believe they will campaign on.
Not (solelly) the RHI – rather a reformed Stormont executive on which new terms are agreed before they return.
And I think they will be well received on doorsteps in doing so.
How long do you think such a negotiation for reform the executive would take Jud?
The DUP couldn’t agree that reversing the decision over Liofa was a uturn, what are the chances Stormont 2 could ever be agreed?
So long s Stormont remains closed during the negotiations I could live with that.
It really depends on how far SF are willing to go with this.
On one end of the spectrum they could agree to a negotiating ‘process’ which would see a quick re-entry with on-going negotiations (which would obviously deliver nothing based on experience).
On the other end of the spectrum they could effectively refuse to nominate indefinitely, in which case the entire GFA would be in question.
Under article 7 of ‘Review’ it would then be up to the two governments to apply ‘remedial action’.
That is the only avenue I see any kind of Joint Authority coming into place.
If SF want to take a radical step those are the dice they will need to role imo.
Of course direct rule is also a possible outcome there, but it is debatable whether that might actually be a (strategic) improvement over the current set up. I think it would certainly harden the ‘UI’ vote in any potential referendum.
I’m not sure if the appetite is there for such a bold (ore reckless depending on your pov) step, but it’s hard to see a more opportune time for SF to take it.
GFA ‘Review procedures following implementation’ Article 7:
“7. If difficulties arise which require remedial action across the range of institutions, or otherwise require amendment of the British-Irish Agreement or relevant legislation, the process of review will fall to the two Governments in consultation with the parties in the Assembly.”
providing any of the parties make it to the doorstep….the dont vote page on social media are offering free stickers for the porch window #if you are calling about the election dont bother,just feck aff back up the path #ive just ordered a few.