Over-reaching, Brexit and dark clouds ahead (for some)

Under normal circumstances, Martin McGuinness’s resignation would have struck a chord with nationalists and republicans. For months or even years, many had grown weary with unionist intransigence and contempt ; so when the Deputy First Minister called time, there was a sigh of relief throughout the republican and nationalist part of the electorate. Sinn Féin would almost certainly have made major advances in the election had Martin McGuinness’s health not been a factor. As it was, the poignancy of his retirement speech, from a man clearly in the grip of a serious illness, added to the sense of nationalist/republican outrage. As John Hume had spent himself in pursuit of civil rights and a unity of communities, so Martin McGuinness had spent himself in a ten-year pursuit of reconciliation and friendship with old adversaries. Martin McGuinness’s resignation speech rang like a tolling bell throughout the six counties.

But the DUP, ever eager to imitate its British masters, had foolishly overplayed its hand with its contemptuous reaction to the RHI scandal.

Much of nationalist/republican success over the centuries has been due to two things: Ireland’s actions when Britain is involved elsewhere, and Britain’s disproportionate response to those actions.

The Easter Rising won success out of failure because Britain was busy killing Germans in France and then overplayed its hand in executing the Rising’s leaders. Likewise, the IRA gained many new recruits, thanks to the excesses of the British Parachute regiment.

Today, Britain is in huge difficulty, first in having voted to leave the EU and secondly because the present Tory Prime Minister has brushed aside the requests from Scotland and the north of Ireland for special status post-Brexit.

And of course the problems post-Brexit wouldn’t be looming if David Cameron hadn’t over-reached and called an EU referendum in the first place. In its stupidity, his blunder ranks up there with Britain’s decision to execute Pearse and his followers. Now Theresa May, Cameron’s successor, looks all set to make a bad situation worse.

Already Britain has declared its outrage that the fate of Gibraltar should be tied in to EU withdrawal negotiations; the EU has responded by making it clear that they’ll not address the Gibraltar problem until all other matters between Britain and the EU have been negotiated. Which leaves Britain to fume and stew in its outrage.

With similar unenlightened arrogance, the British government has declared that Brexit negotiations must proceed in parallel with the establishment of a new set of relations with Europe. The EU, however, has made it clear that withdrawal will first be completed before any consideration is given to fresh economic relations. So what was already a bad situation is rapidly turning towards being a disastrous one. Meanwhile, the Tories’ new best friend, the DUP, insists that Brexit was a brilliant idea.

And if Britain is beset with difficulties in its European relations, it’s facing something even worse internally: the possible fragmentation of the UK. Can Ireland again avail of these difficulties? It can and it must.

Scotland is intent on another independence referendum, and this time they will start from a base of 45% pro-independence ; last time they started with less than 30% pro-independence. What’s more, this time round they have the telling economic argument that pro-Remain Scotland faces being dragged under by the flailing UK.

On this side of the Irish Sea, we in the north face a similar fate: a clear majority of us voted to stay in the EU, but Britain looks set to drags us out and down with it.

Our identification with Scotland is striking, and Alex Salmond’s presence at Martin McGuinness’s funeral was a clear signal that Scotland wishes to make common cause with us in the struggle against Brexit.

Much depends on how clear-eyed those in the Remain camp here in the north can stay. For nationalists and republicans it’s relatively easy, but for pro-Remain unionists it may be harder to accept that an answer that is staring us in the face: join with the south and stay in the EU.

According to my dear friend and failed DUP politician Nelson McCausland, Sinn Féin succeeded in the recent election because a ‘perfect storm’ of factors worked in their favour. Stand by then, Nelson for a fresh shipping forecast: heavy weather on the way, especially off the coast of Brexiteer unionism.