Well, who saw that coming? Nobody. But then you look at it through the rear-view mirror and it makes perfect sense to May. (No, Virginia, the general election is in June. May is the British PM who’s called the June election…Oh forget it.) She’s got an opposition she thinks is really weak, led by Jeremy Corbyn. Why not go for a whopping majority, then? Her day has come.
Except…Well, hands up if you think Scotland is going to turn Tory? Right. Mind you, the Scot Nats have nearly squeezed out the last Tory drip from Westminster, so it’ll really just mean marching on the spot for them. On the other hand, if they sell the election as a dry run for the independence referendum, they could see what support they have for independence or what needs to be done to create that extra support.
And here, in our NE Nest. I think it’s safe to say that the beautiful friendship that was burgeoning between the DUP and the Tories may now be at risk. In Britain, Labour are probably quietly cursing the prospect of the June election. Here, the DUP must be eating the wall-paper and banging their heads against the wall. Still reeling from that last massive upper-cut they received from Sinn Féin, they’re now plunged into another bloody round for more of the same. Those unionist politicians – hello Doug Beattie, hellow Gregory Campbell – who’ve been making it clear that they detest all things Irish, even if and maybe especially if it’s written on a headstone must be calling for the smelling salts. It was Arlene’s intransigence that led to the natioanlist/republican electorate finding out what they could do if they put their minds and ballot-paper marks to work. The slide back into the backwoods since the last election will only add momentum to nationalists and republicans.
But won’t the unionist electorate be galvanised? You bet. More galvanised than the nationalist/republican electorate? Pass. Or as the mart-head commentators say, “Time will tell”.
Final thought: how would you say Nigel Dodds, Deputy Leader of the DUP , is feeling right now?
I suspect that The Martin McGuinness factor and DUP intransigence , will be a huge positive boost for The Sinn Féin Vote !
I couldn’t possibly comment…
Now it’s a perfect time for the people of Fermanagh and S Tyrone to get rid of Tom Elliott.
With the SDLP splitting the vote, that may not be possible ??
I have never understood that. Surely no Republican would waste their vote on a stoop? If they do then they are not Republican, it wouldn’t make any difference to me how many ‘nationalists’ stood, my vote would always go to SF.
It Is the one fragile seat for unionists. SF should win it back.
S. Belfast, the SDLP in trouble there.
Would love to see Gavin Robinson ousted in E. Belfast but will Naomi run? She’s the only one who could oust Robinson.
Will there be unionists pacts?
First and biggest test for Robin Swann and the UUP – will he engage in electoral pacts with the DUP as Nesbitt did in 2015? For UUP survival and to retain their exsisting seats – I’ve no doubts there will be an electoral pact. If there’s another Assembly Election the same day, this could spur on a largest unionist vote.
For SF, a General Election has come at a good time.
Lost a seat in 2015 and have since increased their vote and benefitted from an awoken Nationalist electorate – could this turn into winning further seats in GE 2017?
I think the calling of an snap election illustrates that the British Government care nothing for the North – there’s no chance SF or the DUP will get a deal over the line before an election – if anything the swords will be out and the battle will continue as normal.
On a wider note – an increased SNP vote in a
General election will only further the cause for another Scottish Independence Referendum. Interesting times ahead!
TheHist, I suspect a pact will be on the cards. FST to the official unionists, Belfast South to DUP, albeit wee Johnny is no longer there to run. If UKIP could be persuaded to forgoe the running there, Alasdair is out.
Foyle, or what most of us call Derry may change too, a bad day for SDLP I suspect.
Now, on the prospect of pacts, why not ensure Alasdair retains his seat, with FST going back to the Sinn Féin candidate, Duffy has Newry Armagh tied up, the selling point to stoop central would be John Hume’s old seat, and even South Down is by no means safe to them, a simple nationalist pact could ensure maximum representation for Irish people, living in Ireland, in the UK Dail.
Pacts will only work when there is something for both. Last time SF wanted UB, ED, FST and NB in return or a free run for SDLP in SB which they won anyway so hardly enticing. A more sensible approach would be SF to have FST, NB and UB and SDLP ED and SB. The unionists will respond with a pact anyway making ED and UB safe but at least it would be a gesture. SF will win chunks of NB, ED and UB anyway after boundary changes.
So Theresa May has shot her bolt. The talk was that she’d stand down at the end of her term and walk away.So now she’s going for an election when she didn’t want to give Scotland a referendum….mind you she never really wanted Brexit either, ….but you know how women love to change their minds!. She’s obviously hoping that she’s either given a carte blanche to do whatever she wants without question…like Maggie of old… or the alternative would be to get off the hook anyway and not have to deal with any of this current mess.Many have said that she hasn’t the heart to be Prime Minister and having had a taste of the stress involved , might be having second thoughts . If she wins we have her for five full years, of course, but she mightn’t really want that at all for all we know.. In all of this there’s obviously little room to think of Norneverland , which must have the DUP and unionism here, in general, left rather miffed. They are very obviously only a little after-thought.
The DUP are now staring at years of political irrelevance should devolution not be restored.
The cynic in me wonders if Theresa has been watching the Turkish referendum results, envious of Erdogan’s ability now to give himself all sorts of extra powers to make him a virtual dictator.
As far as the SDLP are concerned, they should wise up to the fact that Robin Swann will certainly be amenable to pacts with the DUP, and realise that if they refuse to do the same and split the nationalist votes in different constituencies, they will not be easily forgiven!
I also wonder what effect this announcement will have on the possibility of an election being called for Stormont – can’t see it running alongside the Westminster joust.
Nigel Dodds’ likely comment to Arlene: ‘Another fine mess you’ve got me into’!
Ha ha Sherdy!…the cynic in you?…The cynic in me asks is Theresa May for real at all.Is she carrying the can for a previous dozy Cameron decision to have a referendum which the Tories thought was a sure thing to stay in the EU. When the punters voted to leave it nearly drove them all to distraction…turkeys voting for Christmas and that…lots of back-stabbing and all candidates but herself alone left bloodied and unfeasible for top job….but herself left with one large bucket of shit to carry….My cynic thinks she wants to drop that bucket at the first possible moment and this might be her chance long before 2020 when the Brexit damage will already be done.She might actually be hoping for a way out.
PK – But I just can’t see her losing her working majority of 17, and though she’ll want greater, even one extra seat can be spun as success.
As for: ….but herself left with one large bucket of shit to carry…, could she, like the old Greek hero, be left to wander the world forever, carrying it with her?
If only . . .
If this is a terrible time for Labour to contest a GE why would they vote for it? If turkeys were given a chance to vote down Christmas I really can’t say the argument that “it would be suicide for them” would be that compelling.
It will either prevent the election entirely or it will at least make May revoke the fixed term parliaments bill in part or total. Either Corbyn lives to fight a GE on a better footing or the campaign starts off with a humiliating defeat for the Tories.
The SDLP have in the past rejected all offers from SF on a pact. We are now, however, in a brexit state and the SDLP should put people before their party and ensure a brexit MP is not elected on the border.
SDLP and SF shouldn’t be splitting the nationalist/republican vote anywhere.
Nor should any other non-unionist candidate.
Surely it’s not beyond the whit of any party to get behind 1 candidate, who should be chosen by the people in the risky area, out of proposals from all parties?
How to organise selection?
E.g: Thursday evening – public meeting. All candidates set out their stalls. Question and Answer/Discussion session
Following Saturday or Sunday after allowing 48 hours reflection time – people turn up at venue to choose their candidate. They could pay a token fee (say 50p) towards covering expenses. Voting ends at 9-10.00pm
towards midnight : count ended, selected candidate announced, supported by all parties
Painful as it is losing winnable seats because of split Nationalist vote, no electoral pacts. Either the electorate makes the decision or the smokey back room does. Only one of them is democratic.
Even if it continues to cost Nationalism MP seats eschewing electoral pacts is the right thing to do.
Besides, what use are MPs? And everything else is PR. Best to keep the moral high ground don’t you think?
A sound proposal, b m. It also has as much chance of success as Nelson McCausland has of becoming the new James Bond. Did you hear Margaret Ritchie on the radio this morning? The triumph of pig-headedness over experience…
The simple fact is their is a fundamental core of SDLP supporters whose hatred of Sinn Fein is greater than dislike (public) for unionism. These people would rather see a unionist represent them than SF.
Emmet is spot on I”m afraid. The SDLP were a hindrance to Irish nationalism, by playing their servile role during the war they allowed the British to portray the IRA as terrorists and criminals. And before anyone says the obvious I will give my reply. NO, the RUC/UDR/ Brits were the terrorists and criminals.