The National Front, Marine Le Pen’s party, was doing its best to carry the burden of defeat last night. Legs wobbling, it pointed out how her father had got somewhere around 18% in 2002, so her 35% showed the party was on an upward path. That’s convincing until you look at Emmanuel Macron, the man who defeated le Pen. His party didn’t exist two years ago and he has never been elected to public office. Today he’s the President-elect of France.
Has this any implications for here? Yes, in that Macron’s victory means the EU will hold together for now, and may even respond to Macron’s call for major reform in the way it operates. But that’s at the macro level. What about the micro? What about North Belfast?
It’d be fair to say that more people believed Macron could defeat Le Pen than believe John Finucane can defeat Nigel Dodds. The commentator Chris Dodds, a man who has an intimate relationships with political statistics, has noted that the combined Sinn Féin/SDLP Assembly vote in North Belfast two months ago was 42.5% compared to 42.8% for the combined UUP/DUP vote. And then there’s the 3.8% of the People Before Profit vote, which would largely go to Sinn Féin. On the other hand if we look at the Sinn Féin vote in the last Westminster election, the party got just short of 14,000 votes, while the SDLP candidate just over 3.000 votes and Nigel Dodds got just over 19,000. In other words, even Sinn Féin had got all the SDLP votes in the last Westminster election, the party still wouldn’t have won.
But while the Assembly election figures aren’t as directly comparable as the last Westminster figures, they do factor in one vital ingredient: the change in mood of the nationalist/republican electorate. Many factors contributed to the stunning performance of Sinn Féin in March, not least the fact that many who’d given up on Sinn Féin suddenly realized the game had changed.
John Finucane will benefit from that strong wind-of-change at his back on June 8. He will be under no illusion about the size of the challenge he faces. Even if the SDLP stand aside (which I don’t think they will ), there are still some 2,000-3,000 between him and victory.
But last night’s victory in France should cheer Finucane. Like Macron, he’s in his late 30s and he hasn’t been elected to political office before. Like Macron, he’s a buttoned-down kind of guy – grey suit, shirt and tie. He’s even a little bit like Macron physically, although bigger, two years younger and better-looking.
Two year ago, no one in France would have dreamt Emmanuel Macron would win the Presidential election. Two weeks ago, no one would have dreamt John Finucane would run in North Belfast. Macron ran and won. Finucane is running and can win. Is feidir leis – he can do it. Is feidir linn- we can do it.
Unionism are upping their game everywhere this time.Orange halls everywhere are running registration clinics and SF are going to have to fight a ground war electorally like they did with McGuinness in 97.
Could you expand on that , i.e. Like they did with McGuinness in 97, much appreciated
REPLY
Could you expand on that , i.e. Like they did with McGuinness in 97, much appreciated
Jude, I think he would make a great representative for North Belfast.
It is about time the people in that area who support equality realise there is nothing to be ashamed off in aspiring to a United candidate who believes in a united Ireland.
A massive “ground campaign”- houses canvassed up to 3 times,massive registration and proxy campaign up to the deadline.I nfluential figures in every district being met and an air of confidence being engendered that the seat could be won.
Sinn Fein could do with more of Arlene Foster on the ‘Hustings’ She is to Catholics the personification of the unreconstructed Protestant/Unionist sectarian bigot who is never happier than when knee deep in discrimination gerrymandering etc., who would love nothing better than to return to (to her) the good old days of Protestant/Unionist dictatorship ..!!!
They say that politics is the art of the possible – but nobody seems to have said that to Colum Eastwood and the SDLP.
While pacts, official and casual, are happening all around, Colum claims his ‘principles’ don’t allow him to do pacts, especially with Sinn Fein.
This only guarantees that unionism will gain seats and nationalism/republicanism lose seats – stupidity or what!
If not stupidity, it must be pig-headedness, deliberately doing what you know will ensure failure.
Is failure the aim of the SDLP?
If so, its final demise cannot be so far behind – a sad legacy for the great John Hume!
Hopefully Mr Finucane will assist victims of some of his new colleagues to obtain public inquiries like he is looking for his dad and will be relentless in exposing any possible collusion by any Sinn Fein members-if he did this I would vote for him
Tony Blair was said to be photogenic……
If we are simply going on how a candidate looks then Jo-Anne Dobson and Emma Pengelly
should surely have been returned on March 2nd
Prefer substance and policies myself
tá an lá go maith
I would guess mr Finucane would be horrified to be compared to Macron. Simply put, Macron triumphed because the powers that be decided so, sin é. A puppet for the banksters and EU slave masters is all he is. He’s a fraud who never was elected to public office, just like Trump, but without the outcry. “Tyrants,hypocrites…..and liars!”