Last evening I was at the selection of John Finucane as the Sinn Féin candidate for the North Belfast constituency. I’ve never been to a Daniel O’Donnell concert, but I’m confident even the Mammies’ boy in Donegal would have struggled to keep up with the reception Finucane got.
The Lansdowne Hotel was lán go doras – stuffed to the doors with Sinn Féin supporters and media people. John Finucane’s family – three boys – were there, his mother and uncles were there, his nieces and nephews. It had the feel of a family event and at the same time a community event. And if last night’s crowd is anything to go by, the electorate of North Belfast has been supercharged by the shock nomination of Finucane.
But adulation and enthusiasm go only so far; votes are what count. So how is John Finucane fixed? Malachi O’Doherty, writing in the Belfast Telegraph a few days ago:
“Sinn Fein feels that it is on the crest of a wave but it will be sorely challenged to rise above about 12,000 votes in North Belfast….The DUP’s Nigel Dodds has raked in nearly 20,000 votes; not so many in the more crowded field of the last Assembly election, though this time he will have a clearer run.”
Maybe John Finucane was thinking of Malachi last night when he said in his acceptance speech: “I have heard some tell me that it would be impossible for me to win the MP seat for North Belfast. Unfortunately for them I love a challenge.”
So who’s right?
Well, Malachi has stretched things a wee bit. In the 2015 Westminster election Nigel Dodds got 19, 096 votes, Gerry Kelly got 13,770, Alban Maginness 3, 338. The turn-out was 59.2%.
In the Assembly election this year, Gerry Kelly (Sinn Féin) got 15.1% of first preference votes, Carál Ní Chuilín (Sinn Féin) 14.3%. Nicola Mallon (SDLP) 13.1%, Paula Bradley (DUP) 11.7%, William Humphrey(DUP) 10.6%. The turn-out was 61.7%.
I am but a slightly dim child when it comes to Maths, but I’m struck by the fact that the three nationalist/republican candidates led the field in first preference votes a couple of months ago. So while in the 2015 Westminster election there was a gap of around 3,000 between the unionist candidate and the combined nationalist and republican candidates, things look considerably healthier in the Assembly election, when the nationalist/republican electorate found out, across the north, what they could do when they were put their mind to it.
Going on either the 2015 figures or the 2017 percentage figures, a combined republican/nationalist vote would be close behind if not ahead of the unionist candidate. So much will depend on whether the SDLP is prepared to run and block John Finucane’s candidacy, or whether they’ll step aside, letting the anti-Brexit, pro-human rights Sinn Féin candidate have a clear run.
Mind you, if the SDLP insists on running, last night’s crowd was so pumped up a lot of voters would be so indignant, John Finucane might still emerge with ‘MP’ tagged onto his name. If the nationalist/republican vote turns out.
It can be done. As Michelle O’Neill said last night: “Let’s do it!”
brexit is done and dusted.this british election has nothing to do with brexit.
Billy , if you take a drink you must be such fun to be out with…always so full of life !
what has pointing the truth out got to do with drink.lol
@ Billy.
I don’t detect much “Equality, Integrity, and Respect” in Eolachs comment, do you?
part of the game on here.censorship and abuse if your not part of the cult.
@ Billy.
It doesn’t bode well for a Sinn Fein United Ireland, does it.
I sense that you and me might be getting put up against a wall…
“I sense that you and me might be getting put up against a wall…”
Or water boarded if the ex SF councillor from Dublin is anything to go by.
Wash your mouth out with soap and water young man. Oh, CULT? Sorry.
@ Jude.
It doesnt matter how “progressive”, “anti-Brexit” or “pro-Human Rights” you want to dress this up as, SDLP will not allow Sinn Fein to hammer-fist them into a de facto sectarian pact.
What part of “No” are you misunderstanding?
Ps. Aren’t you just a little bit concerned that John Finucane wasn’t even a member of Sinn Fein before he was parachuted in to his coronation?
Kevin, as a PBP voter / supporter – do you think PBP voters would “lend” their vote to Finucane in the General Election?
@ TheHist.
Not a chance.
We will continue to plough our own wee Red furrow.
Are PBP running a candidate in the General Election?
@ TheHist.
Of course.
We haven’t gone away, y’know.
@ Kevin Connolly Not at all if Gerry Kelly nominated him I’m sure that’s good enough for the people of Norrh Belfast. As for ham fisted and sectarian? Do elaborate?
@ Chris.
So it is a Coronation then.
Much the same as Michelle O’Neill was leap-frogged into a leadership role, despite no history of leadership of anyone, or anything.
What passes for internal democracy within Sinn Fein – Is it just a matter of being inside The Dear Leaders Golden Circle?
What really really pxsses you off,Kevin, is that no matter how badly John Finucane does he will get ten times more votes than the ‘socialists’ combined. You are definitely good losers.
@ Fiosrach.
People Before Profit got 14,000 plus First Preference votes at the last election in Belfast and Foyle alone.
So, by your challenge, John Finucane would need 140,000 votes in North Belfast for you to collect on your bet.
You have more chance of finding Holy Water in an Orange Lodge.
We’re talking futures here,Kevin. I have been listening to the same old rants and raves from McCann since 1969. The only thing that changes is the gang is younger and obviously more impressionable. Putting in time till they get a job with some of the global stock. The stuff that you spout gets an odd shot in the arm from time to time but makes no lasting impression outside the bubble that most of you live in.
@ Fiosrach.
Do you remember that morning you woke up to discover that TWO Reds had been elected in the Narnia pantomime.
And seeing Eamonn singing the Internationale at the hustings.
Marty had a face like a slapped.arse, didn’t he.
Oh, how I chuckled.
Chuckle ar la.
Well, you’ll have more of those days to dread in the future as we go from strength to strength.
As Sinn Fein lurch from Right to Left, talking out of both sides of their mouths at the same time, we’ll be there to remind them.
Pointing out every U-turn, every sell-out, we will be haunting you.
You better get used to it.
Maybe you are too young to remember the hordes of Northern Ireland Labour Party who swept the boards. Where did you go to my lovelies?
“And seeing Eamonn singing the Internationale at the hustings.
Marty had a face like a slapped.arse, didn’t he.
Oh, how I chuckled.
Chuckle ar la.”
Who has the face like a slapped arse now then? your quick to point out other contributors lack of Equality, Respect and Integrity. Where’s yours?
“Well, you’ll have more of those days to dread in the future as we go from strength to strength.”
You do realise that People before Profit went from 2% of the vote share in 2016 to 1.8% in 2017? The only thing to dread here is your mathematical skills. I now see why another contributor to this site calls you delusional.
“As Sinn Fein lurch from Right to Left, talking out of both sides of their mouths at the same time, we’ll be there to remind them”
Can the same not be said for PBP in regards Brexit?
Also being designated as “Other” can you as our local PBP spokesman please tell me where exactly PBP stand regarding the re-unification of Ireland?
“Pointing out every U-turn, every sell-out, we will be haunting you.
You better get used to it”
This seems to be the main PBP policy. I actually welcomed the idea of Gerry Carroll running in West Belfast to add another “Socialist” point of view but unfortunately all the people of West Belfast got was a Pro-Brexit eejit who likes to slam other parties policies. Gerry and PBP got it so wrong with Brexit. Thankfully the people of West Belfast caught onto this and I wouldn’t be surprised if GC is put out to graze with a certain Mr Attwood. If PBP are not part of the solution they are part of the problem.
But maybe I’m wrong on all of the above so I’ll ask you the same question I asked your party canvasser when they wrapped my door during the last election.
As an Irish Nationalist and Socialist why should I vote for PBP?
Kevin,whats your take on PBP/swp “critical support” for the “armed struggle” during the troubles?
@ Michael.
People Before Profit are not the same as the Socialist Workers Party.
How are they not the same? What’s the differences?
PBP are a broad-based alliance of trade unionists, Lefties and community activists.
The SWP is a political party advocating the overthrow of the existing economic and social order.
But, you knew that already, didn’t you.
Is that the Judean PBP or the Judean Front version?! Splitters!
@ Another Jude.
How many splits has Sinn Fein had down through the years?
mentioPBP is a SWP front and anybody with the slightest knowledge of politics knows that.SWP were known as “provo trots” by the neo unionist WP which Kevin now defends.Eamon McCann never uttered a word of condemnation of the provos when the war was on and indeed I marched alongside him and the rest of the SWP in SF led demos for decades.It is therefore ironic to see Kevin and his ilk now slandering Martin McGuinness by trying to link him to stuff they never condemned at the time.Also a cursory look at transfer patterns shows PBP votes come overwhelmingly from the nationalist community with less than 1 % of their transfers going to unionism.
@ Michael.
So many smears, so little time.
Let’s tease this apart….we will start you on an easy one….can you show me anywhere that I defended the WP (presumably Workers Party?
@ Michael.
You seem to have gone quiet….any reason for that?
Is the Smear Cupboard empty?
Immature children playing with a soft ball……it’ll take a while before you’re allowed out with adults , if ever ,…… socialist words from capitalist minds…..you’re not fighting for the working class …you’re just pissed off because your ideas have been spouted a thousand times before….and always been rejected !
People will vote for John because A he is a Republican so that’s the Republican vote guaranteed and B he is a solicitor so that’s the Catholic vote sorted. Any self respecting Irish mother would vote for him!
@ Antonio.
“Whatever happens to me, or this place, we will still be out there on the streets, preaching the divine gospel of Discontent”. Eamonn McCann speaking in Stormont.
I don’t think Eamonn was too bothered, do you.
Ps. Despite losing his seat (because of the reduction from 6 to 5 seats per constituency) his vote went up by 700, didn’t it.
That’s qualifies as going from strength to strength.
Hi Kevin,
Let me point out some facts for you.
In 2016 GC in Belfast West got 8,299 votes or 22.88% of the vote
SF got 19,752 or 54.46% of the vote
In 2017 GC got 8,252 votes or 14.9% of the vote.
SF got 61.8%
It doesn’t take a genius to work out the plainly obvious that PBP in West Belfast is on the decline. But you keep on living in your wee red bubble.
P.S thanks for answering my other questions.
Hi Kevin,
Let me point out some facts for you.
In 2016 GC in Belfast West got 8,299 votes or 22.88% of the vote
SF got 19,752 or 54.46% of the vote
In 2017 GC got 8,252 votes or 14.9% of the vote.
SF got 61.8%
It doesn’t take a genius to work out the plainly obvious that PBP in West Belfast is on the decline. But you keep on living in your wee red bubble.
P.S thanks for answering my other questions.
Your comment is awaiting moderation
Small point, Antonio – Kevin’s comment(s) may continue to await moderation, because he won’t be appearing on this site again until he withdraws his statement that I was deliberately blocking his comments. ( Yes, a bit Gilbert and Sullivanish). As I pointed out, I’m happy to put up any point of view that isn’t slanderous or abusive, but I’l not have people telling lies about my running of this website.
May I ask why my comments are still awaiting moderation on a more recent piece Jude?
You certainly may, Scott. I’ve put up all comments including yours. Normally the great majority go up automatically – as you probably know – but some for reasons unknown come direct to me for approval.And I approve them. Kevin is the exception to this, of course.
Ah I see thought there might have been some change in policy or perhaps a technical fault.
Thanks for clearing that up.
Jude
Mine didn’t
I suspect MI5 are up to their tricks again.
They pay close attention to what goes on here I am told!