Picture by Antrim Lens
If the events of the last 18 months or so have taught us anything it is that it is almost impossible to predict what will happen in any political situation. We had Brexit, then Trump and so we could be forgiven for not putting out faith in polls that tell us the outcome of this or that.
But having said that there is a poll out today that makes for interesting reading. As the General Election campaign continues, the media, well at least the right wing variety and for that matter the so called impartial BBC, insist on ramming down our throats that the Tories are heading for a landslide. (Remember the days when the media would try and be a bit impartial and you would have reporters who would give an objective viewpoint of what was happening instead of what is currently happening both here and in England where reporters are practically cheerleaders for particular parties!) Anyway back to this poll. The latest opinion poll puts the Tories at 44% and Labour, with their ‘unelectable leader’ at 35%. Now still not enough to stop the Tory bandwagon but interesting for a whole pile of reasons.
If that result was to be borne out in an election Jeremy Corbyn would have succeeded in equalling the percentage share of the vote that Tony Blair received in 2005. He would also have achieved almost the same percentage as the Conservative governments of 2010 and 2015 who were elected with 36.1% and 36.9% respectively. Now this may not translate into the same number of seats but it is interesting that the so called ‘hard left’ leader may just be picking up more and more support.
The Labour manifesto with its precise costings would have helped as did the Tory arrogance allowing their mask to slip and revealing how badly off most of us will be if they are returned. But isn’t it interesting to think that the phenomena that saw Brexit and Trump which were both triumphs for the right may also be going to manifest itself for the left as well. If in the strange times we live in people are truly fed up with the old way then it might just be that a left wing alternative could be seen as viable just as easily as a right wing one. If Jeremy Corbyn leads the Labour Party to that sort of result based on a clear left wing manifesto things could be changing faster than we think.
As for our own little contest who would bet against the SDLP losing all their seats if the Sinn Fein surge continues? Thanks to Arlene Foster it may well do.
But if the SDLP lose all their seats, who will speak up for the nationalists in Westminster against Brexit? There will be a combined sigh of relief from the Tories, if the three amigos fail to obtain their three seats. They will also fail to get their blood money to revive their shrinking war chest. Theresa May would probably call a new election. I don’t think the Conservative and Unionist party could put up with this revolutionary trio in their midst. And aren’t the local Tories there to get the best deal for the province? Who needs the swashbucklers of the SDLP?
The aim of the game is that we won’t have to send anyone to Westminster anymore.
Best reply I have read in yonks, thank you.
It’s embarrassing and cringe-worthy to watch the SDLP slither and squirm as they now flounder ,unable to find a niche for themselves. They’re certainly not nationalist ( unless redefined as British nationalist ) They’ve acquired Unionist tendencies and notions but they’re still comprised of middle-class Catholics and would still dance to an Irish jig , but probably only if accompanied by an Orange air. Their sun has well and truly set !
I think you might be being a bit too hard on the SDLP. They are certainly part of the nationalist community. But since the ceasefire Sinn Féin have occupied the position once held by the SDLP – that of constitional nationalism. I think that most people who vote for them are probably people who didn’t agree with armed struggle during the troubles. I doubt that many young people vote for them anymore.
constitutional*
Wise words Colman – spot on.
SF can’t be mentioned on the media without the IRA campaign being mentioned ,day in and day out.Jeremy Corbyn is being pilloried as an IRA supporter because of his SF contacts.So don’t say the IRA campaign is being disconnected from SF.Also the SF party is recuiting hundreds of young members all over Ireland in contrast to all other parties.
michael
The SF leader (the blonde one not the beardy one) was making a speech only the other day commemorating IRA volunteers.
You can hardly complain when the media notices.
It is not so long since Martin McGuinness was buried and praised as a volunteer in the IRA
How amazing that the media make any connection between SF and the IRA!
“The latest opinion poll puts the Tories at 44% and Labour, with their ‘unelectable leader’ at 35%.”
Given the gap when PM May called the election it’s reasonable to ask whether the Tories are throwing GE2017.
It’s hard to believe the farcical shambles of the Tory campaign isn’t calculated.
https://eurofree3.wordpress.com/2017/05/21/corbyn-for-pm-its-a-great-british-thing/
Gio, fyi “the blonde one” is called Michelle O’Neill and the “beardy one” is Gerry Adams, but then you already knew that, didn’t you……………
Bridget
Relax it was just a wee joke.
Have you seen the way representatives of other parties and the media are routinely described here?
‘Bootshine boys’ ‘Uncle Toms’ ‘toadies’ ‘lickspittles’ ‘westbrits”whores in their hearts’ etc etc etc…
All part of the respect agenda no doubt.
gio,the point I am making is that everyone who votes SF is totally aware of the armed struggle and SF’s support for it.
michael
You seemed to be complaining that SF were linked to the IRA by the media.
Perhaps I misunderstood you. If so my apologies.
I suppose the question is can it be used by SF as a rallying cry and yet also condemned by them when others point out the negative associations?