I have never thought of David McWilliams as a particularly nationalist Irishman. He’s best known for his economic expertise, with the fact that he spotted the economic collapse of 2008 long before the vast majority of economic commentators attesting to his expertise. But this morning in The Belfast Telegraph, he combines economics and nationalist politics in an article headed ‘Demographics are shifting towards a united Ireland – we must have a plan.’ I’ll leave you to read it for yourself. It’s not a new story, but coming from David McWilliams and appearing in The Belfast Telegraph, it makes informative reading.
Even more informative – in fact stunning to the point of being scarcely credible – is a rectangle half-way down McWilliams’s piece. It’s like the ads you see interspersed through stories in The Belfast Telegraph and other papers – except it’s not an ad. It’s a poll taken – not clear by whom – about having a border poll and how people would vote were such a poll held. Who organized the poll? What methods were used? Pass. But its findings set me back in my chair, jaw dropped. Not only can you get the results of the poll – which involved, I gather, over 40,000 people – but you can find the results for different areas in the north, and s for cities like Dublin and London. The findings for many of the areas are eye-popping, and the overall figures are equally mind-boggling. I won’t be a spoiler: look at the findings and consider if they make sense.
I was almost amazed when I read his article Jude. I think we’re getting there.
On David McWilliam’s nationalism, it is vaguely obvious when one reads his book ‘The Generation Game’, I should recommend it, albeit obviously dated now.
I am rather pleased to say I beat David by seven years in predicting the economic collapse, and it’s causal factors, just cannot now access the document as it’s on a floppy drive.
I was astounded at the numbers. I didn’t know there were sufficient people in Bangor whom may think re-unification was in their better interests, equally ‘Ards, Coleraine.
On London, I suspect he took the readings from one of the public houses my son frequents of a Friday evening, he keeps sending me pictures of one or other dead hero which adorn the walls so you can guess there’s hundreds of Republican folk drinking there.
Glas cá, no surprise but Dun Edin was a shock.
If this were true, and as you point out, the sample was rather large, is it time to further push for the plebiscite on re-unification, albeit, wee Arlene appears to have solved that problem for five years.
Funny, Mark – I didn’t associate the poll with McW. He doesn’t mention it. I take it as something the BT has done and is sliding in alongside an article on the same topic. What I’d like to know is, why isn’t such an astonishing poll being minutely examined and headlined in BBC and UTV – and BL – news?
Just back and was thinking, why did the BBC not afford this OP the same coverage they do the one’s they commission?
As I pointed out before re: BBC OP’s on this topic, the commissioner gets the result they want by ensuring polling is undertaken in areas they dictate.
This one covered a wide area, of, what are best termed, conflicting opinions.
Mark
Any evidence that the BBC manipulates its polls in this way?
And what was the methodology for this poll or don’t you care?
Who needs polls when Nolan accepts the comedy duet who ring his show regularly and speak about the “only 19% of people in NI want reunification”
He often lets statements like that go unchallenged, so yes, BBC needs to be questioned on such matters.
Jude,
I believe one of the reasons it is not getting coverage is due to the poll not being scientific. When other polling firms conduct a poll, they normally do so with around 1000 people, sampling from a wide base that is representative of wider society. I googled the author of the Poll (you can see their logo in the bottom right hand corner of some of their slides), a firm called ‘ Apester’ and they do not appear to be an official polling company, rather an app based firm that allows others (like Bel Tel) to imbed software to their stories that allow punters to participate in an online ‘poll’. A biased sample of a million people is no better than a biased sample of a thousand.
So the poll is not scientific and this is probably why others have not given it much attention.
Keiran, and equally Gio., the ‘scientific’ nature of BBC and previous BT OP’s is just what is open to question.
Yes Keiran, the usually take opinion from 1000 to 1500 persons, I should suggest however, they are not ‘random’ samples where pollsters undertake polls in places where results are likely to provide response in line with what the commissioner of said poll requires.
I have some experience in polling while a student.
Mark
You suggest bias but you have nothing to back it up.
How was this survey in the BT conducted?
Ni a lios agam Gio, I gave up working in this field in 1988/9.
I never suggested bias, rather I, and I have asked BBC for information regarding their polling, not forthcoming, have stated, more than once, that polls reflect the desired outcome of the commissioner of the poll, he who pay’s the piper.
Where I am from, a wholly Irish part of Ireland, we have never seen such polling company, I have spoken to them in Bangor.
Jude you are very naïve. Dontcha know the BBC and other compliant media don’t deal in “fakenews”? I.e they are the bastions of truth. Be thankful and blessed that we have such upstanding guardians of news to keep us on the right track.
The tories and DUP have ruled out a border poll without consent of the people. We know who the DUP few as ‘the people’ so we will need 51% of unionists to vote to hold a border poll before the rest of us get to have a say.
We probably would not have the eighteen year old’s for five years anyhow. No Parliament can bind it’s successors, I’d think it is achievable, then.
After todays deal, the norths status is safe for another 5 years at least. Bring on the billion spend. Perhaps the A5 will get built, il be able to make it to Omagh in 30 mins from Oriel country.
But remember DUP, eatin bread is long forgotton. Once the money is spent after their Tory deal, where next?
Having read most of David McWilliams books, he does mention Irish Unity a few times and calls the Good Friday Agreement “unfinished business”. Is he a nationalist? In my opinion: Yes but with a small n. Just like most people in the South. McWilliams mentions that one part of his family are of Scottish Protestant origin and his wife is an East Belfast Protestant (one leader of the PIRA in the 1970’s also had an Irish Nationalist East Belfast Protestant for a mother).
In my opinion, I think the likes of Sinn Fein/SDLP do a very poor job, especially when it comes to economics, of promoting Irish Unity. You would think that the likes of Sinn Fein would be well tuned in knowing the advantages of Irish Unity and the disadvantages of staying in the Union. I can only give my own opinion from what I have seen but I have been shocked at when SF are questioned on Irish Unity and their representatives, many of whom are very skilled, don’t even know basic details. This has happened many times on the Nolan Radio show and sometimes on the TV show. I’m no economist but even I thought I could’ve did a better job.
The Unionist way of promoting the Union is always very crude, such as “we are part of the 5th biggest economy in the world!” but no one asks them why then is the North such a basket case? As McWilliams points out in the article above. Its obvious the North gets very little of the benefits/wealth produced by the UK as a whole, most of that wealth/job creation is in London. The North of England can hardly get any of this economic growth, what hope do we paddies in the North have?…
Irish Unity is pretty much inevitable but its inevitable for crude and sectarian reasons, aka a headcount. If we want to get a United Ireland voted through for better reasons, then I suggest Sinn Fein/SDLP contact people like Mr McWilliams and others and get their help/advice.
I agree with you Ryan: reading David McWilliams today was a revelation.
“In my opinion, I think the likes of Sinn Fein/SDLP do a very poor job, especially when it comes to economics, of promoting Irish Unity”
Inevitably, when someone does mention the economics of a UI, the costs of Northern Ireland come immediately into the mix. The fact that no-one actually knows how much NI makes and spends in itself is part of the problem. Jude did a good article on it on this blog a while ago, and there’s an excellent article on the topic from the NERI institute, but the the figures cited only go back to 2013/14. The cost deficit is somewhere between £3.5 billion £10 billion, but without proper fiscal authority in NI, we’ll never actually know. And I’d be willing to bet the DUP and UU would never like to actually know or have control of the purse strings. It loosens the chains of London over the place and that’s their antithesis.
The most important goodie the DUP should have demanded was Corporation Tax powers. Whilst not the panacea for Economic prosperity, it’s an important tool and one that Northern Ireland is going to need more than ever. But the DUP have blustered it away again into the background, in some 2 year timetable guff. London will never grant it and the Unionists will never demand it, leaving the NI economy to rot in a zombie like state as Brexit moves swiftly on.
The great thing about this is that the rest of the UK detests the DUP even more, and with the 12th July around the corner, it’s going to be an interesting few weeks. I’d say a lot of DUP members have been instructed to be on their best possible behaviour for silly season.
We all enjoy those online polls but they don’t amount to much as they are easily inflated by a social media campaign – remember Boaty McBoatface and A Nation Once Again as the UK’s song of the millennium?
The tricky bit for nationalists in the north is that the only way we’re going to get re-unification is by the economy in the north improving so that it doesn’t rely on huge GB interventions. That way people won’t have the economic fear of reunification. The problem is a stronger economy may be seen as somehow linked to the Union, especially post Brexit. It’s a tricky circle to square.
Interesting read, a lot of it was a cut and paste from his previous writings. With regards to unification. Although its inevitable, the more interesting part is ‘When’. I personally believe that the media control this aspect. When you control the narrative, you control the ‘When’!
The BBC, UTV, radio and print media are still heavily unionist orientated (Poppy Media). Once nationalism breaks through in these mainstream mediums, then we will see a total reversal of opinion. Remaining part of the UK will seem ridiculous (more so) and the unification agenda will be set.
I would stay away from the online polls. Polls are ‘engineered’ with predefined outcomes. They are not there to report opinion, but rather to shape it!
Unity is building agreement across this island for the betterment for all its citizens. This is at odds with the unionist psyche of supremacist entitlement. There will be an election cycle some point very soon where the unionist dog whistle will be muzzled by social issues. As they have hitched their wagon firmly to the Tories. Every hit upon the loyalist working class will be seen to be inflicted by the DUP. With this building resentment within their own ever decreasing voter base, the unionist vote will implode. Jobs, money and education will become more important than unrequited love with Britain. Throw into the mix the massive expansion of an angry resentful and exponentially growing catholic demographic and your looking at warp speed unity.
“There are decades when nothing happens; and there are weeks when decades happen…..”
“There are decades when nothing happens; and there are weeks when decades happen…..”
Nail on the head.
It will be interesting to see if the 2018 boundary changes in NI are implemented too, the ones that hand Sinn Fein 9 seats against 7 for the DUP.
I have a lot of time for David McWilliams.
What is stunning even more so, is that his “base” of supporters are West Brits.
If in doubt read the comments on his blog.
I know they absolutely hate when David writes articles like this.
i.e pro united Ireland.
I hope And I believe David McWilliams will have some big role
in shaping the future of Ireland.
I wouldn’t be surprised if he had the talent to be a future Taoiseach.
Maybe even of a 32 County Ireland?
There are two people I see having a bright future in/for Ireland.
One is David and the other has the surname of Finucane.
Let’s face it. The Finucane family are all very intelligent folks.
Reasons to be optimistic for the future of Ireland.
.
The vast majority of people in this part of Ireland support a Re-United Ireland.
Period.
Oz, I share your optimism for our future.
I would take the poll with a massive pinch of salt for example Lisburn is pro-unity wee jeffrey would have a stroke. Likewise though alot of the official polls are horsesh1t too and poorly written ie DFo you want a United Ireland tomorrow?
THe polls that give a follow up question ie in 10 yrs or 20 yrs give you a better idea because it gives a time frame to have the mess sorted out. These polls have Unity at 40% which reflects the SDLP/SF vote for about the last 15 yrs. The census reveals huge demographic change as McWilliams points out but in real terms at elections its not happening at the moment for whatever reason. The fantastic March elections still only had Nationalism on 42/43%
https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/df31eca1beb7222142c8efcbd084385ac6807a6c39d00368e55983221a888f1f.png?w=600&h=221