The DUP: they just don’t get it

When I was a teacher, I used to think that students deserved a mark for effort as well as achievement. There were youngsters who toiled long and hard to come up with something fairly pedestrian, and it seemed callous and counter-productive to dismiss their efforts.

Watching the DUP over the last few months has been a bit like that. They’ve tried really really hard to come back from the pummeling they received at the Assembly elections, and their efforts to get Stormont up and running again deserve some sort of credit.

Now you might want to dispute this image of the DUP. You might feel that the party hasn’t just simply striven hard, they’ve achieved much. After all, look at the ten – yes, ten – MPs they’ve elected to Westminster. Look at the way they’ve squeezed a billion, or is it a billion and a half, out of the unhappy Theresa May. This isn’t just a party that tries hard – its efforts bring success.

There’s certainly no denying the numbers. Nor that they succeeded in threatening the Tories if they didn’t hand over their valuables, or at least one billion of their valuables. The DUP is indeed, when you look at it, a kingmaker.

But unfortunately, the DUP is so committed to effort, it forgets what success and near-failure look like.

They have indeed got the Tories over a barrel, but they seem to forget that this position is desperately fragile, and contrary not just to the wishes of Labour supporters, but of many Conservates too. The DUP have put their collective weight on a near-broken reed, and when the Theresa collapses, as she will inevitably do, the DUP will crash along with them.

The DUP also seem unaware that their efforts at Westminster have exposed them to the pitiless gaze of the UK electorate. And right or wrong, the UK electorate think they’ve never seen such a bunch of Paddy reactionaries ever. By forging their much-vaunted deal with the Tories, the DUP tend to forget that it has whipped back their veil and the people of the UK are distinctly underwhelmed by what they see.

Finally and most importantly, the DUP have misread the mood of the republican/nationalist electorate. They forget that for fifteen years or so, Sinn Féin have been transporting every power and role they could lay their hands on to Stormont. Westminster, for republicans, is literally a waste of space. The action will be in Ireland, not England.

What’s more, Stormont may some day return, but not as the DUP have known it. The boast that they have no red lines, unlike the Shinners, is a sad and empty one. Listen carefully, guys: Stormont as you know it and long for it is dead. Finished. There ain’t going to be any more curry my yoghurts or can of coke or leprechaun jibes. Even with its huge mandate, Sinn Féin aren’t going to hop back into harness with you because you’ve proved yourselves, over a period of years, as irreformable. The Shinners, usually in the person of the late Martin McGuinness, have tried and tried again, reached out, gone the extra mile. For what? To be called a bunch of crocodiles?

To deal with reality you have to first acknowledge its existence. For the DUP, the rising tide of nationalism is a mirage, a bad dream, just bogey-man stuff it’s handy to frighten the punters with when you need their votes. Not so, dear DUP. There is a tide in men’s affairs which, if you close your eyes as it comes crashing in, will drown you.