Getting real about Brexit and Irish reunification

Reccntly I find myself cheered mightily by the fact that people who would have cut out their tongue before talking about a reunited Ireland are now raising the issue. That’s good. The more people who take a sober look at this age-old aspiration, the better. Issues like this need to build a momentum, and from that momentum positive things may come.

But let me make a few comments on some suggestions in the air.

1. There is a tendency now, particularly within Sinn Féin, to “an agreed Ireland” rather than “a united Ireland.” This is good thinking: ‘united Ireland’ is one of these trigger words that is often followed by the rumble of iron blinds being lowered within unionist minds. However, we shouldn’t carry that too far. You could in theory have ‘an agreed Ireland’ that didn’t end partition, stiffened and/or added to the link with Westminster. In other words, let’s not be too coy about what we want, if we favour Irish reunification. There is a difference between diplomatic language and misleading language
2. Donnchadh Ó Laoghaire, the Sinn Féin TD for Cork South-Central, speaking at the Gasyard Féile, has spoken of how, when and if in government in the south, Sinn Féin will introduce a Green Paper on Irish reunification. This is good. The republican electorate would expect no less. But we should be clear that a Green Paper won’t necessarily hasten reunification. It’ll help people think in more concrete terms about reunification, but it doesn’t mean it ‘ll happen.
3. A majority in the north of Ireland favour remaining in the EU. However, we shouldn’t assume that they will then vote for a reunited Ireland as a way of staying in the EU. There are many who would – the nationalist/republican electorate, presumably. But there are unionists who see the advantage of staying in the EU, but should EU membership clash with UK membership, they’ll go for UK membership.
4. That last pessimistic sentence of 3 above could be contradicted, should Brexit result in a north of Ireland which is suffering economically through being removed from the EU, while the south of Ireland is prospering economically through being a continued member of the EU. Experience is a hard but an effective teacher. But we haven’t seen the effects of Brexit yet. Until we do, and it has clearly different impact on the north and south of Ireland, placing too much emphasis on the north’s majority for Brexit is to over-state the case.
5. For Sinn Féin to be in government in the north and in the south would be an important step towards reunification. It would encourage other parties to think in all-Ireland terms, and the more of them who do go the all-Ireland party road, the better. But Sinn Féin being in government north and south would clearly be good for the party. I’m not clear on how it would be good for reunification.
6. Ó Laoghaire cited the ‘Modelling Irish Unification’ paper of 2015 and said it added to the economic argument for reunification. So it does. But have you talked to many recently who’ve read that paper from the University of British Columbia? Who’ve been persuaded by it?
7. I believe economic studies like that from UBC are valuable – vital, even. But people tend to think in terms of specific examples, not just over-arching theories. What is needed by those favouring reunification is a series of case studies of the impact of Brexit on particular citizens or groups of citizens. Just as we all know the Troubles brough pain and grief, but are truly persuaded of this when we hear the harrowing detail of an individual victim, so too people will be won to the economic case for Irish unity when they have, alongside the big theoretical study, the practical examples of Businessman A or Farmer B or Citizen C, and how his or her life has been damaged by Brexit. Sinn Féin and others interested in a reunited Ireland should assemble such a portfolio of case studies, gathered by economic experts and researches, with all haste possible.