Do polls predict the future?

If doctors differ and patients die, what do members of the public do when they come up against sharply differing opinion polls?

In November, an RTÉ Liveline and BBC Nolan Live poll of over 1,000 people in the north and 1,000 in the south found that

1. Just over a third of those surveyed in the south of Ireland would like to see a united Ireland in the short-to-medium term.
2. Just over a quarter (27%) of those surveyed who were from a Catholic background in the north of Ireland said they’d opt for a united Ireland in the short-to-medium term.
3. Two-thirds of those surveyed in the south (66%) said they’d like a united Ireland in their lifetime. Only 30% of those in the north would like a united Ireland in their life-time
4. 31% of those in the south would favour a united Ireland if it meant paying more tax. That’s less than half the number said they’d like to see a united Ireland in their lifetime.

Sobering reading for anyone who has aspirations towards a united Ireland. Southerners in favour only if it didn’t hit their pocket, distinct minority in north wanting a united Ireland.

But hold. In October, the Lucid Talk company did a similar poll with 10,000 people in the north. Here’s what they found.

1. Nearly 80% of those polled favoured a united Ireland at some point in the future. Almost half of them – 47% – favoured having a united Ireland within five years.
2. Some 80% of nationalists favoured a border poll inside the next five years. Only 8% of unionists felt that way, while of those labeled ‘Other’, 43% favoured a poll inside five years.
3. Almost 90% of nationalists believed, in the case of a border referendum, a simple majority should decide the outcome. Nearly 55% of unionists wanted the outcome to be decided by 70% of voters, not 50%
4. Over 55% of those polled said the north should stay in the UK, with just a little over 33% saying they’d want to join a united Ireland.

So how do you like them apples? Two opinon polls, contrasting seriously in some ways – the eagerness for a border referendum in the Lucid Talk poll being the most obvious point of contrast. Where the two polls converge is on the reluctance to change the constitutional position our NEN currently enjoys/endures.

But as always, things can and do change. Note how the south’s enthusiasm for a united Ireland shrivels when there’s a prospect of damage to the pocket.

Which of course brings us to Brexit. There are people who’ll tell you that Brexit is an excellent idea, will provide a huge surge in employment and standards of living in the UK. Two such are Boris Johnson and Nigel Farage. Just about all the experts on matters economical are agreed – as are the clear majority in the north of Ireland – that Brexit will be a disaster for us all.

Will the love of the UK droop and hang as the financial impact of Brexit begins to bite over the next few years? No need to answer, Virginia. That’s what we call a rhetorical question.