Time has been a vital factor in the Brexit process from the start. In the early stages, probably to encourage focus, Theresa May triggered Article 50, so putting herself and the Tories under pressure. Clearly, this was not a time for Tories to sit on their hands.
Unfortunately, that’s what the Tories have done – sat on their hands. Here we are with six months left of the two-year run-up-to-withdrawal period; and while we’re assured that 70, 80, 90% of matters have been concluded, there still remains this pesky damned border in Ireland, and we’re no nearer agreement on it than eighteen months ago.
The two-year transition period was then dreamt up as a part of Brexit for some time – to smooth the path for Britain as she prepares for life outside the EU. Now, though, with stalemate in UK-EU negotiations, we’re told there may be another – third – transition year. Theresa May says it’ll be only a matter of months, and who’s to say she won’t be right?
But are we talking Micawber time here? A time during which Theresa will simply hope something turns up, as Dickens’s character did when down on his luck? Or are we talking about Macmillan’s famous “Events, dear boy, events” – is Theresa crossing her fingers and hoping that extra time will leave extra room for the unexpected to occur? After all, that’s the way the future always is – not quite what we’d anticipated.
If I were Theresa May (and who would want to be, with the hot, stale breath of Nigel Dodds on your neck?), I’d light a candle and hand it all over to God (or the gods). Because we’ve been round this particular mulberry bush so often, it seems impossible to solve it.
It comes down to this: (i) No hard border in Ireland; (ii) OK, a hard border where then – in the Irish Sea? Can’t have that, the DUP shriek, rending their garments. It’ll break up the UK! But have you ever thought, Arlene and Nigel and Sammy and Co – have you ever thought that the time may be approaching for the UK to break up anyway? It’s old and may be well beyond its Best By date.
Some seventy years ago when the idea of an EU first emerged it seemed impossible. But with focus and ambition and in the teeth of history it happened. Why then couldn’t things go the other way? Despite Theresa focus and DUP drive, the rickety wheels are maybe due to come off the UK and the bloody old doors are to be blown clear of that ancient vehicle. That may not be what Mrs May has in mind but it could be the shape of things to come, like or lump.
So brace yourselves, Arlene and Nigel and Sammy and Co Your worst nightmare could be on its way. Just give it time.
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