A: So fill me in – what was so big-deal about yesterday?
B: Yesterday just cut through the Gordian knot of the backstop, and the EU and the UK are ready to sign a withdrawal deal.
A: Really?
B: No, not really. But they have come up with a “technical” agreement or what some call a “provisional” agreement. The UK government and the EU have still to sign off on it.
A: Did you just say Provisional?
B: Yes, but not that kind of Provisional. I mean provisional as in the agreement’s there, the EU and UK have just got to have their governments sign up to the deal.
A: So no deal yesterday after all?
B: Correct. But we have the outlines of one.
A: And the outlines are?
B: The outlines are that ALL of the UK will follow EU customs union rules – effectively will stay in the EU – until they get a new trade deal organized.
A: And what’s so good about that?
B: It means the open border in Ireland will remain, and so will trading between the north of Ireland and the UK, barring a few rules and regulations.
A: Will this make the DUP happy?
B: No – have you ever actually seen Nigel Dodds happy? The DUP say this agreement sounds like a wedge if not a border is being inserted in the Irish Sea between the north and the rest of the UK.
A: Will the UK go on following EU rules forever?
B: No. It’ll apply to all of the UK only until it finalizes a deal with the EU. I told you that already – you’re not listening.
A: What about the north – will it have to follow EU rules forever?
B: Mmm. Hard to say. The word is they’re going to be presenting the agreement as having only one backstop – that which keeps all of the UK as close as possible to the EU customs union and single market.
A: So no backstop for us? I thought the Brits had signed up to that. WTF??
B: What’s in a name? The agreement will have “specific elements” applying to the north only, so Leo and all of us can sleep sound at night.
A: Let me get this straight. They’re for establishing a backstop that covers all of the UK. This will stay in place until the UK and EU come to a better agreement. But there’ll be no north of Ireland backstop, just “specific elements” relating to the north. Have I got it right?
B: As far as I can tell. No ordinary human being has seen this agreed document except the British Cabinet and some tunnel people in Brussels.
A: The EU is digging a tunnel?
B: Forget the tunnel thing. It’s just an expression.
A: So if this document gets the thumbs-up from Westminster and the EU governments, the UK will stay with things as they are until they get something better agreed. Right?
B: Well, something the Brits are happy with. Then the UK will end the temporary arrangement with the EU and go her own winning and winsome way.
A: And us poor eejits in the north – what about us?
B: There’s a distinct danger that our backstop will have morphed into a specific element.
A: Does that mean it’ll be stronger or weaker?
B: Weaker, is my guess.
A: Are we all doomed?
B: Not yet, because Theresa May has to sell this deal to her Cabinet, which is thick with slack-jawed Brexiteers, then to the DUP, which is full of Not-An-Inchers, and to the British Parliament, which is full of Remainers.
A: Will all that be easy?
B: About as easy as a barefoot quarter-mile stroll over hot coals.
A: And if Theresa May gets it past those, that’s it?
B: If she gets it past those. Which she almost certainly won’t.
A: What’s going to happen? Are we all doomed?
B: Not necessarily. The disagreement in the British parliament may lead to a general election, which will have a good chance of delivering a Jeremy Corbyn-led government.
A: And then what?
B: The DUP will go mad and run Gaderene-swine-like over the nearest cliff and the Labour Party will push Jeremy into holding a second referendum.
A: Will that make us all happy?
B: Did the last one?
A: Oh God. Is there no hope? None at all?
B: Well, the great British public may see the DUP as the ones mainly to blame for the refusal to come to a civilized agreement and, before they can run off that cliff, will stop them so they can be torn limb from political limb.
A: Even the good knight Sir Jeffrey?
B: Especially the good knight Sir J. Good morning.
A: You could have fooled me. Mother of God – this is terrible.
B: Don’t be like that. Do what Tommie Gorman advised last night: order in some popcorn, settle back and watch the skin and hair fly.
A: Will that include Nigel Dodds’s skin and hair?
B: Almost certainly.
A: I’m feeling better already.
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