Well, click your heels and lep for joy! This morning, Leo Varadkar and Simon Coveney must be high-fiving each other and performing back-somersaults of ecstasy. “We dun it!” they cry. “We eyeballed the Brits – with a little help from our gallant European allies – and wouldn’t you know, the Brits blinked first! And did you see the gob on Arlene Foster, the DUP leader? She looked as if she’d swallowed a small but perfectly formed frog!”.
And indeed Leo and Simon have reason to rejoice. Not only will the backstop apply to north-south trade in Ireland, it’ll apply to east-west trade with the UK as well. There’ll be a period of a year or maybe two in which nothing will change – everyone will act as if the EU hadn’t had its British tooth extracted, and after that two years is up, there’ll be possibility of lengthening the transition period. And who knows what changes could have come about by then? Will the Tories still be in power? Will the UK remain in existence?
However, before we lose the run of ourselves, there are a few little loose ends worth addressing. The DUP (weren’t Sammy’s cheeks awfy red when Arlene was talking? He had the demeanour of a man who’d just walked on something squishy ) – the DUP, I say, have said there will be blood…No, sorry. The DUP have said “There will be consequences”. Once you hear that, you know they’re going to pull their punches in case they find themselves knocked clean out of the ring. Of course there will be consequences – everything has consequences. Just what the consequences will be is the point. The DUP have made it clear they cannot support this new document. But the sharp of hearing among you will have noted they did not say they’d vote against it. Why not? Sure they hate it. Extra examination of agri-foods and such will put our Precious Union at risk of disintegration. – right? Well, wrong actually. The GFA has made it clear when the Precious Union will be at risk, and this agreement is not it. The DUP may be seething, but above all other things, beyond life itself almost, they desire to stay in – no, Virginia, not in the Precious Union – they lust to stay in their present position of Westminster power. Having scaled the heights, how awful to go back to the lowlands of irrelevance.
The other little matter that needs addressing is, what will the north’s status be over the next year or two in terms of EU membership? Because if we’re to be treated just as if we were members for the next while, aren’t we entitled to participate in EU elections? Yes, I know that clashes with us being out of the EU from the end of next March, but Irish citizens in the north are also European citizens, and as such should have representation in Brussels.
More matters will emerge as the days go by. Meanwhile, let us discreetly withdraw and leave Leo and Simon to their sweaty hugs of self-congratulation. It’s all worked out splendidly, hasn’t it… What? I haven’t taken into account the little matter of the reinvigorated Labour party? Or the increasing number of people in Britain who want to put the Brexit machine into reverse? And more pressingly, you say, I haven’t considered the serious possibility that Theresa’s agreement will crash and burn as it attempts to make its way through Westminster? True. Watch this space.
Meantime, if things go completely pear-shaped, it won’t be your fault, Leo and Simon. But, alas, it might as well be. Because you’re either a winner or a loser. And if this deal can’t be signed, sealed and delivered, you will be seen as a pair of losers.
Maybe leave that champagne on ice for a few weeks yet.
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