You know the way the markets and business generally hate uncertainty? That’s why the value of the pound has been sliding for months now. Try having a holiday in the US or the EU and you’ll know what I mean. So there’s a pressing need for an end to the present uncertainty.
But what if the end of uncertainty was worse than the uncertainty itself? What if the uncertainty ended in Boris Johnson entering 10 Downing Street. How would the markets cope with a liar, a chancer, a man who was a total failure during his brief tenure as British Foreign Secretary? That would end uncertainty, but some economists predict that Johnson’s installation would be even worse for the markets than the present state. Are they right?
They could indeed be. If the leader of government is a man prone to lies and gaffes, disasters self-inflicted and promises unkept, the value of the pound could well start sinking like a stone.
But not necessarily. Think of another leader who sounds childish and naïve, given to making statements that are clearly lies, who keeps flattering himself in public…Right. Donald J Trump. And when he was elected…right again, counter-intuitive is the word I’d use too. Under Trump, the markets have done just jim-dandy and the US economy is in general rude good health. Who’s to say the same thing won’t happen with Boris?
Well, anyone with half a brain-cell. Because Boris means no backstop, and that way lies economic disaster. And a real possibility of social unrest or worse.
Brace yourselves. If 23 June was Britain’s Independence Day, 31 October will be its D for Disaster Day. And ours.
Comments are closed.