Hasn’t the last week been an action-packed bundle of excitement for those of us following political developments on this island? The week began with the second successful weekly opinion poll in a row revealing Sinn Fein as the lead party in the South after it had again broke past the 30% support mark, leaving its nearest rival Fine Gael with a struggle on its hands if it’s to catch up.
The polls commissioned by the Sunday Times and the Irish Times respectively led to a number of other newspapers and media outlets speculating that Sinn Fein’s surprise electoral victory in February 2020 was not a one-hit wonder and the party had clearly maintained healthy and consistent support in every opinion poll since, but now that its support was up in 30% plus mark ahead of Fine Gael and away out of reach of Fianna Fail, it would not be beyond the bounds of probability that it might find itself as the lead party in the next government.
Indeed, some have predicted that SF is in with a very strong chance of snatching the Dublin Bay South byelection seat from FG on July 8th. In addition to such speculation, a panel of political commentators on an Irish Times podcast has dared to appraise us of what a likely SF & Other program for government will likely look like after the republicans had taken up the reins of power in Dublin and do so on the assumption that the republican party will also by then be the largest party in the Assembly on the other side of the border.
We are told there will be two major planks to this program for government, the first and obvious one will be to invest a huge effort in addressing all the big problems facing society in the south as we speak, including Housing, Health and Covid and Education etc, while the second will involve seriously addressing the party’s long-term goal of Irish reunification, and to that end, a special portfolio/ministry will likely be established for that very purpose. The I. Times panel also tells us that with such leadership roles in place on both sides of the border, there will no longer be any room left to avoid the elephant in the room and a serious and sustained period of preparation and engagement will begin towards establishing the groundwork for a future border poll.
Within two days of the second opinion poll findings being released, news broke of a major statement made by the Tánaiste and FG leader Leo Veradkar, where he chose to use his address to his party Ard Fheis (Party Conference) to say he believed he would see a united Ireland in his lifetime and the party should prepare to establish branches in the north. Leo didn’t dare to give us a hint of when he thought that united Ireland might happen, in his dotage years, or anytime sooner.
The rest of Leo’s republican speech then went on to try to out-shin the shinners with his vision for achieving his goal of Irish unity. It didn’t take a great deal of imagination to figure out from the tone of the speech that this wasn’t so much about achieving Irish Unity but about trying to steal some of the SF vote winning formula and to wrest control from SF, of the real or imaginary ownership of what seems to be the unstoppable campaign for an eventual border poll.
Leo’s intervention had plenty of heads scratching the following morning, with many asking what he had been thinking and how could he be so irresponsible, and I’m not talking about northern unionists but many in Dublin who would normally be linked into the same brain cell charger as Fine Gael. Few however, bothered to look at the timing and its relationship to the DBS byelection contest where it’s deemed to be a two-horse race between FG & SF. Two days later, Edwin Poots was K O’d with a succession of swift left and right hooks to the head from his fellow DUP members, for daring to do business with SF. That was followed later by another statement from Leo Veradkar who defended his earlier united Ireland statement, saying he could not have known that Poots would be banished from officer two days after he had made it. But of course, ignorance is no defence for Leo who understood well that unionism was already in crisis over the northern protocol and knowing he had just engaged in something he had often criticised and lectured the shinners for doing.
Leo was being, er, economical with the truth, and knew he was wrong, or at least he was if he wanted to be consistent with his own party position around dealing with unionism and a future United Ireland. However, he was not wrong if he was being honest with himself about what it will seriously take to bring about a United Ireland and to encourage unionists to take that first baby step to begin talking about it.
Leo might have been lying, but even a liar occasionally utters a truth and there was one rock solid truth that Leo did utter when defending his statement to his party faithful, and that was: “There is never a bad time to talk about a united Ireland”.
When Leo uttered those words, he released a genie out of the bottle and no one will be able to put it back again, neither he nor his partner in government Micheal Martin. It’s out now and it’s also out there that SF was right all along that no one should have a veto against the will of the Irish people.
If Leo should be commended for on thing, it was for not doing what all his Dublin predecessors had done before him and that was to run back into their bunkers and to remain silent every time a unionist said ‘boo’ for raising the subject of Irish unity. Leo wasn’t at all put off by the predictable response from UUP leader Doug Beattie and held his ground about what he said. It’s just a pity that he and his partners in government are not consistent about such utterings when they are made by SF and others.
For example, if we cast our minds back to the infamous RTE Claire Byrne show on the centenary of Partition, where a future united Ireland was being discussed by a number of party leaders and political commentators. We will remember Leo, Micheal and John Bruton each criticising the Sinn Fein approach for not being subtle enough because it didn’t accept that unionists aren’t ready to talk. So much for there is never a bad time to discuss a united Ireland.
Leo seems to have moved on from then, but now his hang-up with SF seems to be that he believes the Shinners don’t seem to be interested in acquiring any more than the 50% plus one support needed in a future border poll. How does Leo know that? Is he just making it up as he is known for often doing, or is he basing such an assumption by SF’s consistent calling for Dublin to move on preparations for a poll now?
Two things come to mind about this which Leo should be made aware of. The first thing is that one of the probable reasons why SF is so loud and consistent in calling on Dublin to move on the matter, is because they haven’t done so to date and seem determined to miss out on the current historic circumstances which could favour a positive outcome if such a referendum on unity was to be called in the foreseeable future.
The second obvious point that seems to escape Leo, and this relates to his and FG’s supposed preference for a 55% plus result in the referendum to bring as many unionists as possible peacefully over to the side of unity, is the fact that everyone, including SF, who will be campaigning to win the referendum, will automatically be campaigning for the maximum vote in favour of unity and that work will automatically be happening long before polling day. If Leo and Micheal really want a 55% to 60% positive result, then they should realise, the sooner the talks and preparation work begin, the better the chances are of reaching that goal result.
Perhaps Leo has begun to understand this, and his recent utterances were his and his party’s first step in that direction. But maybe Leo’s next step should be to first persuade his partner and Taoiseach to believe in a united Ireland and to believe in it today and not in some far-off distant decade or century.
The best possible move that could help tax the minds of political unionism about a future border poll and encourage them to begin talking, is for them to realise that Dublin is serious about it and has put away the cotton wool which it used for decades to wrap them in from dealing with the subject.
Perhaps Leo has already learned that there is only so far you can pander to political unionism, which by its very definition will never vote itself out of existence. But as journalist and author and herself a northern Protestant Susan McKay, had recently revealed after researching for her updated book on ‘Northern Protestants’, she was amazed to learn just how many Protestants were neither shocked nor afraid of a future border poll and the probable outcome of Irish unification.
These are the people, and not the political No, Nah, Nevers, who will deliver a United Ireland in the end!
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